Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

I thought EU’s answer to anything we go asking them for, wrt no deal (like sub deals or any extensions for more preparation) was going to be “yes if you sign up to an Irish backstop.” Since the backstop is the most disliked part of the WA then it will ultimately prevent any of that happening.

Agree Mrsr8, he is the last of the one nation tories.

I love BorderIrish too, Somerville

Border's views on the available options and the backstop:

Î was so sad when Ken Clarke was defeated in the 2005 leadership election
1st round too - he had little support

I thought that we could only revoke Article 50 in good faith (ie as part of a decision to remain in the EU long term). Didn't the judgment say something like that?

I hope Will Hutton is talking through his arse when he tweets

"Central expectation is now that May, when she loses the Jan 14th vote, will opt for a 3 month extension of Article 50 to prepare for no deal." 🤯

because if May and / or the Cabinet think she can "opt" for an extension, or have any chance of the E27 granting one,
just for No Deal prep,
then we are screwed

The UK can NOT unilaterally extend
and the EU would only extend for a PV, or for a GE where one party has Revoke, or possibly the WA, as its policy

This is an example of a leading Remainer either either being very thick or lying
(just in case lurkers think we only criticise Leavers)

Place mat king

Has anyone in authority actually checked on such an extension with the EU,
or are our ruling class, including Remainers, so entitled they think the EU will just grant this

At the very least, if the EU grants a totally desperate UK an extension, to avoid complete economic & social meltdown, they would demand some serious concession in return.
What ?

Anyone hear Ken Clarke on R4 ? suggests a revoke, for a fixed time period to prepare properly to exit EU and a possible referendum, he seems to think only a small minority want a genuine no deal exit....

Much as I admire Ken (if only the 18 year old me could hear me say that ), isn't he wrong here? I thought there was a good faith provision in the revocation judgment. Revoking with the intention of preparing to trigger A50 again would seem to go against that.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/05/girl-13-arrested-in-london-yellow-vest-brexit-protest?CMP=twt_gu

theguardian.com
Girl, 13, arrested in London 'yellow-vest' pro-Brexit protest
Damien Gayle
2-3 minutes

Teenager is one of four protesters held after blockade of Westminster Bridge
Protesters on Westminster Bridge.
About 100 demonstrators took part in the protest on Saturday morning. Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Rex/Shutterstock

A 13-year-old girl has been arrested on suspicion of assaulting a police officer after protesters emulating the gilets jaunes demonstrations in France blockaded Westminster Bridge and stopped traffic around parliament.

She was one of four suspects arrested for taking part in the demonstration, which had apparently not been arranged in advance with police. The others detained were all men arrested for alleged public order offences.

According to reports, about 100 demonstrators took part in the protest, which began at 11am on Saturday with a blockade of Westminster Bridge. They moved on to Parliament Square, where they set off smoke bombs and sat in the roads.

The disruption caused tailbacks and diversions, according to Transport for London, which said buses serving the area had been delayed and subsequently diverted.

The Metropolitan police’s Westminster division reported the arrests on its Twitter feed. It said: “Four arrests have been made following protests on Westminster Bridge, SW1 at approximately 11am today. Three men arrested on suspicion of public order offences.

“A 13-year-old girl was also arrested on suspicion of assault on police. Inquiries continue.”

According to a call to action circulated on social media, protesters met at 10.30am at Waterloo station before marching on Westminster bridge. Photos and video showed several dozen dressed in high-visibility vests blocking the bridge, waving union flags and burning an EU flag.

“No to globalists; yes to free freedom,” one man shouts in the footage shared on Periscope, before the group collectively raise their voices in a song of “bye bye EU”, to the tune of Auld Lang Syne.

I'm still clinging on to the hope that all this stuff that's being "leaked" is to try and scare MPs into voting for May's deal.

I use Google News to pick up an unedited set of news stories

Go to the home page of the following Newspapers and scroll through the headlines ....
The Telegraph
The New York Times
The Express
The Mirror
The Washington Post

Sorry folks, but "No Deal" is coming down the track.
No idea why the journos think its the best for them to promote
but they do

God GD12 I hope so too. I feel like my mental health is seriously unraveling.

Misti The ECJ Advocate-general initial ruling included warnings against abuse of revocation, but the full ECJ omitted these.

Eleanor Sharpston,the UK’s Advocate General at the Court of Justice had a useful account in threadreader

Her opinion seems
“Revoke means Revoke”
However, there don't seem to be any legal teeth to stop deliberate abuse of revoke for tactical reasons,
or trying again in 5 years or whenever the UK govt has a feasible brexit plan.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1076154117645574144.html

GD12 Part of the publicity is to try to scare the MPs, part to scare the EU
neither seems to be working

The real reason for the publicity is that ît is unavoidable not to report such prepping
e.g. a 150 goods vehicle test near the port where our food arrives, 50,000 troops & police on standby fgs -

in fact there should be daily screaming headlines every newscast and in every newspaper
and detailled articles explaining what's happening and what will happen with No Deal.

Unfortunately, readers / viewers don't like to hear they may have screwed the pooch, so advertisers don't like it either (and the BBC is FRIT !)

"Central expectation is now that May, when she loses the Jan 14th vote, will opt for a 3 month extension of Article 50 to prepare for no deal”

Thereby encouraging the ERG to vote against the WA...

{I thought that we could only revoke Article 50 in good faith}
Well if it is good faith the EU are looking for they won't find it as members of the cabinet have already stated they would be happy to rip up any agreements if it suited them IIRC.

I think No Deal Terror is working a treat and I’d be surprised now if WA doesn’t limp in.

Despite the reports in the press about the ERG and DUP standing firm (well actually there have also been reports some ERG may be coming round), it’s the middle of the road MPs with a conscience but without the courage and character to vote the WA down and manage the aftermath who will cave.

Having to lift my mood by watching Yoootoob. Last night it was Vietnam, this evening the Nuremberg trial of Goering.
Actually interesting in the semi patronising tone of the 'American' telling of Nuremburg when you consider what the Americans (primarily) did in Vietnam. To eradicate opposition they exterminated all people and animals, agent orange defoliant then burned and bulldozed anything remaining.

Ahhh, Go On Go On Go On, those Cows are far away.

Death in Paradise is fab escapism as well

I have to admit her deal is terrible and will leave us much worse off in the long run but now I'm getting to hope it gets voted through.

Down with that sort of thing.

That would be an ecumenical matter