Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

God help us, if Bercow is ousted. It could still happen.

IDS saying that when he asked clerks in the past whether a motion could be amended but was told no. And this is a different prescident to what he's been told in the past.

Bercow says he wants to reflect on this.

This is getting sticky for Bercow.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Bercow appears to have used the fact that the Government said the business motion was undebateable but suggests it may have left space for amendments to be voted on

So no debate but a vote on the amendment.

Leadsom unimpressed and shaking her head at Bercow.

Bercow now saying thing change and the Speaker has the power to make an honest judgment to make changes...

Brexiteers are very very unhappy.

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
So twice John Bercow was asked by Andrea Leadsom if he was advised against selecting the Dominic Grieve amendment and twice he refused to say.

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
So John Bercow confirms that only statute can overrule statute. This is effectively saying the Government could ignore the Grieve amendment (if it is passed).
But obviously doing so would mean ignoring the expressed will of the Commons which would be... risky.

Uhoh. Double Uhoh.

Exact quote which is important. And I'm sure will be very contention:

PARLY @ParlyApp
Speaker:

I understand the importance of precedent, but precedent does not completely bind -if we were guided only by precedent, manifestly nothing in our procedures would ever change.

Bercow now saying that it is the job of the chair to stand for parliamentary soverignity above all else.

We don't have time for the election of a new Speaker FFS. We need Parliament to be focused on making a silk purse out of a sow's ear

"Quick re-join" would surely be in 10 years? Think how long it would take to negotiate a new joining treaty - plus, presumably - a referendum on re-joining

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Big Picture -
This is a significant power grab from the House of Commons, which would not matter if the Government had a majority for what it is trying to do.

“If we only went by precedent manifestly nothing would ever change”... Bercow tells IDS

It does suggest in no uncertain terms that the Speaker's view is that the government are acting in a way which is 'unparliamentary'.

Which is fair given the contempt charge which was upheld.

We don't have time for the election of a new Speaker FFS.

Which is precisely why the ERG will gun for him....

PARLY @ParlyApp
I am championing the rights of the House of Commons says the Speaker.

Speaker says he is standing up for the House of Commons including the views of dissenters on the government benches and to defend the rights of opposition and very small parties as well

Dr Marc Geddes @marcgeddes
Is... is John Bercow saying he can do whatever he likes? Have I got that right?

Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman
This is pretty incredible stuff. Bercow vs MPs - I wonder how much more authoritative he would be had he not been pinpointed in the report on bullying...

You have to have quite a lot of authority to be able to get away with saying what Bercow has just said, which is that he can change procedure as he pleases

MrTimPoole @MrTimPoole1
but it's not "as he pleases".... it's as the house sees fit. Otherwise they'd vote him off the chair.

Steve Baker MP @SteveBakerHW
For a person to change such rules as they please is not consistent with the rule of law.

And of all people Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP procured this fundamental breach of our hard-won, rules-based order. Awful

Which could also be said of Mrs May...

PARLY @ParlyApp
@JacobReesMogg Is it therefore the case that the motion if amended may not then be put unless it is adopted by a minister of the crown.

Bercow has said that things might be a matter for the procedural committee....

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
Jacob Rees-Mogg, as expected, heads deeper into the parliamentary weeds than anyone yet.

PARLY @ParlyApp
@JacobReesMogg quoting page 458 of Erskine May on the meaning of “forthwith”

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Current British constitutional status:

Commons arguing about the definition and impact of the word “forthwith”

Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
Speaker Bercow is thoroughly enjoying himself.

I think his critics will struggle to explain to the public why he should not allow MPs to vote on something that the Government doesn't want anyone to vote on.

This is epic. My shopping is currently still sitting on the floor...

... I fear the way this is going it might be there all afternoon.

This is effectively a debate on the constitutional role of the speaker and the soverignity of the HoC.

I have no idea what the Grieve Amendment is as I've been out all morning!

FGS. The PM has:

1. Tried to circumvent Parliament completely by unilateral triggering of Art 50.

2.Suppressed impact assessments via David Davis's lies.

1. Introduced the ability for single ministers to implement SIs using powers not used since Henry VIII.

1. Entered into unprecedented confidentiality clauses.

1. Excluded cabinet ministers from decision making processes.

1. Had MPs surrender their phones to see documents in guarded rooms.

If Bercow is enabling more parliamentary input than would otherwise be the case - it's at least positive rule bending, compared to the PMs secret unilateral modus operandi.

PARLY @ParlyApp
The majority of the House respects your ruling and what we are seeing in the House is no way to conduct our affairs says @lucianaberger

PARLY @ParlyApp
Speaker won’t confirm or deny whether the clerks advised him against selecting the amendment

Lammy saying that Civil Servants should not be put in the position where they are exposed to this scrutiny as its not right and affects them personally and its politicising the civil servant. And Leadsom (leader of the house) shouldn't have asked for publication of advice Bercow was given as its improper.

Bercow is impressive at the moment - Parliament Live is best drama I've seen for a long time!

Tom Peck @tompeck
The details are painful but suffice to say, Bercow has just been hopelessly skewered again, this time by Jacob Rees-Mogg, and can only reply "I will reflect on that." That the speaker now fully resembles Mark "I'll get back to you" Zuckerberg before that panel is grim indeed.

A while ago, large numbers of Labour MPs made no secret of their willingness to turn a blind eye to Bercow's bullying behaviour, precisely because they wanted him here for scenes just like this. This is really, really bad.

James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Bercow’s response to Rees-Mogg was, essentially, an admission that he hasn’t thought through the future implications of his actions

James Cleverly questioning whether the speaker is being seen to be impartial. And on that basis whether this decision at this time was ok, as it was so contenious.

Bercow disagrees saying the crucial moment in time for the soverignty of the house is now. Not in 6 months time. And hes had to make his best and honest judgment on this matter.

Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman
Amazing how difficult it is to change things in the Commons when there’s a serious report on harassment, but then again how easy it is when the Speaker fancies making a big procedural change

PARLY @ParlyApp
Speaker: My job is not to be a cheerleader for the executive branch, my job is to stand up for the rights of the House of Commons and the Speaker will assuredly do so.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
So some MPs are trying to stop Speaker Bercow from changing Commons precedent so that there is no opportunity for the Commons to force the PM back to the House within 3 days if she loses next week...

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt
Tory MP to me: Bercow is just signing his death warrant

How fucking irresponsible for a Newsnight Editor to quote like that directly in that way.

So some MPs are trying to stop Speaker Bercow from changing Commons precedent so that there is no opportunity for the Commons to force the PM back to the House within 3 days if she loses next week...

Loses what ? There will be no vote.

All we need now is a bomb scare to empty parliament so they have to stop debating.

Suggestion for new thread title 'What the hell happens now?'
Putting shopping away is SO overrated!

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
The whole of Brexit is almost worth it to see the expressions on the faces of government-minded MPs aghast at prospect of MPs being able to vote on amending a government motion.

Brexit was never about taking back control, it is just about giving more control to the executive

PARLY @ParlyApp
There are a lot of people who believe there is a conspiracy and a procedural stitch up that the House of Commons is grossly out of touch with the referendum says Andrew Percy

And the government IS NOT guilty of this, I guess we are to assume from this comment.

cough Universal Credit cough

{All we need now is a bomb scare to empty parliament so they have to stop debating.}
Well it looks like a rugby scrum, how about chucking an EDL supporter into the middle and see how that works.

PARLY @ParlyApp
I have always done my conscientious best to champion the rights of members wishing to push their particular point of view on a range of issues and perhaps the most strikingly on this issue - that is what the record shows says the Speaker

And with that points of order is now over....