Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

I very much enjoyed the laughter and round of applause as Bercow refuted the accusation of having a pro-Remain sticker in his car.

Bercow has been excellent.

@Motheroffourdragons It's basically that TM has to come back within 3 parliamentary sitting days with a plan B if she's defeated next Tuesday rather than the 21 days previously allowed.

Mother I am struggling too 😬; it sums up brexit basically!

I think it means that parliament can not now allocate public funds towards paying for No Deal preparations, thus removing No Deal as an option.

However, some are saying that in fact, we could just end up with No Deal anyway, except that this time it will be even worse (if that’s possible) because no preparations have been made. I think?! I could be hugely wrong.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Current UK constitutional status:

MPs arguing with the Speaker of the Commons over what a sticker on his wife’s car said about Brexit.

Speaker replying that what his wife puts on her car is her business she is not his “chattel”

I have tried for ages without success to figure out what this amendment actually is.....help

I'm trying desparately to do this before we run out of posts on this thread for the next one.

Ah, thanks Tokyo- I think I must be quite a way behind with all this.

I sometimes worry that I can’t keep up with the machinations of Brexit. But then I remember that this isn’t a process as such, rather a real-time analysis of what happens when actual shit hits a parliamentary fan, and I feel like it’s ok to not quite get things. It’s bonkers! Thank goodness for these threads- thank you to everyone for all these contributions 💪👏

I have tried for ages without success to figure out what this amendment actually is

I’m lost too. Life’s shit right now. Looking at Brexit shit isn’t helping.

I also think that TokyoSushi has summed up the amendment. Whether or not the Speaker is wrong to have allowed the amendment, the fact that the Govt has delayed the vote for more than a month means that allowing 21 days rather than 3 to report back is a luxury we cannot afford.

They're voting on the Grieve amendment - result expected 2.20

@ThereWillBeAdequateFood , I had a rubbish morning too. Brexit shit isn't helping.

Going back to the BBC report on surveys that say that just under 30% support No Deal.

Turning that on its head, that means that over 70% (including the "Don't Knows") don't support "No Deal". The "Don't Knows", iirc, were around 20%, so if even you exclude them, that's still 50% supporting options other than No Deal.

But in any event, 2 issues with such analysis:

1. You can't give a 4 or 5 way choice, only allowing one option and the. Say support for one shows majority support. For all its flaws, you would need to use either STV or two rounds of voting to show a "majority" for one of those options, and

1. There are at least some ignorant people who genuinely think that "No Deal" means continuing with the status quo There would need to be a proper campaign (based on verifiable truths facts) so that people understood the implications of the choices that they were making.

In my humble opinion, that's why we have a Parliament where MPs are representatives rather than delegates. They're supposed to put what's best for the country first : country first; constituents second; party third.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3474306-Westminstenders-What-The-Hell-Happens-Next?watched=1

New thread and the vote has now concluded and we are awaiting the result of Grieve IV

{Thank you, TokyoSushi. That makes sense .....if she has a plan B of course.}
May could have a plan B, but unless it is one of ONLY 'No deal' WA or Revoke it is pointless.

I had a rubbish morning too. Brexit shit isn't helping

Sorry to hear that bellin that’s for the and I think I might need tonight. I’ve done dry January 7 years in a row - I have a feeling that run is going to be ended this year.

Yes!

ayes 308 noes 297

Today I drove home from work on the A3M and the M27 past the M3 turning.
I saw two air ambulances
six fire engines attending RTAs
four ambulances at RTAs and seven others with blue lights

This country is nearly at gridlock and everybody is driving like maniacs
it will only get worse as the nihilism takes hold

Interesting conversation at work today.

I trust the MP I voted for to find a way through this
and this from somebody who is well aware of how politics works
scary

to accuse the MP of being useless implies their choice was bad
and thus demeans them
tricky to negotiate around

Just popping on to say thank you @ThereWillBeAdequateFood