Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Actually interesting in the semi patronising tone of the 'American' telling of Nuremburg when you consider what the Americans (primarily) did in Vietnam. To eradicate opposition they exterminated all people and animals, agent orange defoliant then burned and bulldozed anything remaining
You really are a toxic anti semitic sexist old git.

Maybe I like the misery.

That money was just resting in my account!

My favourite Father Ted line “funny how you get more right wing ad you get older”

Seems quite relevant somehow.

I think there are sufficient MPs to force a revoke if the government pursued No Deal. But I don’t think there will be enough MPs with the courage to risk voting down the WA in the first place.

If they did, it would be the majority of HoC vs the ERG, May? potentially the DUP as afaict they appear to believe no customs borders are required or use of non-existent technological solutions, possibly also McDonnell and Corbyn. The lunatics are in the minority.

On Tuesday Maugham and his mates are briefing MPs on revocation - can we revoke by a motion, application for extension etc.

tatiana "the middle of the road MPs with a conscience but without the courage and character to vote the WA down and manage the aftermath"

It's worth voting down the WA. Once.
To see what support other options have

After that .....
I'm fully in favour of any MP avoiding No Deal via the WA, unless there is actually a feasible plan - not wishful thinking - to legally force a Revoke.
Currently, MPs don't know how to do this even if they wanted to
and with both Tory & Labour officially supporting Brexit, there seem very few votes for Revoke atm

No Deal could be a far worse disaster than the 2008 financial crisis
It could send the economy spiralling down into terminal decline

It is unacceptable to risk this if the HoC is still hopelessly lost in say late February.
Gesture politics are no good - we need an actual plan and tomorrow there are only 82 days left, under 12 weeks, to come up with a plan.

^Go to the home page of the following Newspapers and scroll through the headlines ....
The Telegraph
The New York Times
The Express
The Mirror
The Washington Post^

Sorry folks, but "No Deal" is coming down the track

I really hope you are wrong. I’m pinning my hopes on the Daily Mail (I cannot believe I just wrote that). If they run with an anti no deal stance we may be ok. Not revoke style ok but May’s WA squeaks through kind of ok.

You malign Michael Fish - technically we don't have hurricanes in the UK. However, as a result, the Met Office introduced the floating buoys in the Atlantic to monitor the weather more accurately and their computers now are much more sophisticated.

Contrast this with Brexit - an unexpected result, and instead of analysing what could be done, silly slogans and two and a half years later with only weeks to go, no one in UK Government will say what they want.

tatiana "the middle of the road MPs with a conscience but without the courage and character to vote the WA down and manage the aftermath"

It's worth voting down the WA. Once.
To see what support other options have

After that .....
I'm fully in favour of any MP avoiding No Deal via the WA, unless there is actually a feasible plan - not wishful thinking - to legally force a Revoke.
Currently, MPs don't know how to do this even if they wanted to

I disagree with you about votes for Revoke
- with both Tory & Labour officially supporting Brexit, there seem very few votes for this atm
Which MPs have said they would support Revoke ?

No Deal could be a far worse disaster than the 2008 financial crisis
It could send the economy spiralling down into terminal decline

It is unacceptable to risk this if the HoC is still hopelessly lost in say late February.
Gesture politics are no good - we need an actual plan and tomorrow there are only 82 days left, under 12 weeks, to come up with a plan.

Wishful thinking is no substitute for actual votes AND a plan to legally force the PM to obey

{You really are a toxic anti semitic sexist old git.}
I will hold my hand up to being quite old, the rest is incorrect.
The justification and lies told by governments was interesting, and of course WW2 was 70 years ago, Vietnam rather more recent and then there are the Balkans in the '90's and Syria currently.
One side has 'terrorists' the other 'freedom fighters' but what they have in common is death.
If you are unaware of what was done 'in your name' there is a chance of it repeating.

Harsh analysis of the brexiteer psyche:

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/05/brexiters-ache-to-deliver-severe-spanking-whether-we-like-it-or-not

The US has said it will prosecute and seek extradition of any interational judges that indict US armed forces or politicians for War crimes / Crimes Against Humanity

This situation has arisen because of the War Against Terror and the US sometimes ignoring international law in this.

Not a good look, for a country that was one of the main creators of international war crimes legislation after WW2
and in more decades set up the International Criminal Court to tackle war crimes.

I Am wonderfully ignorant of twitter, Snapchat, wasapp, Facebook and only come on MN for info on subjects I don't know a lot about and to look at different debates to while away the time. And to generally have some interaction and contact with the human race. ( prefer animals who are more sweet tempered even wild animals are more humane than humans. They only kill to eat.)
Even my dgd at age 16 cannot understand why the younger generation are so obsessed by media apps. She so dumbfounded that the younger generation have more mental breakdowns due to cyber bullying, mental health issues cos of body image problems, self harming cos they feel worthless and even suicide when all they have to do is press the exit button and erase the apps. But everyone seems not to be able to live a proper life without all these apps. Tbh I dont come on line that much and I like a phone to be just a phone, very rarely use the camera on it and all the other gadgets. I'm just...boring really but have a lot less media stress.

Yes, rebel it is noticeable how hard right Toryism has increasingly embraced sadism and punishment for the unworthy - e.g. the poor, the disabled, the furrin - as policies in themselves.

{Met Office introduced the floating buoys in the Atlantic to monitor the weather more accurately and their computers now are much more sophisticated.}
They hung up some fresh seaweed.

{No Deal could be a far worse disaster than the 2008 financial crisis}
The banking crisis had one major 'cause' which granted took a lot of working out. Brexit will have a massive financial implication but with the changing of laws and a zillion other aspects all occurring at the same time it will be very difficult to work out what is cause and what is effect.

BCF

No-Deal will not happen.

The Tories and May want to be re-elected, they detest JC and in a no deal scenario all that has been predicted (subject to the EU and a few deals on flights and lorries as part of their prep) will happen and who will be blamed in the following GE ? May and the Tories.

For that reason alone, she'll find a way of avoiding no-deal, as J Johnson said "a policy is only a policy until it isn't"

disagree with you about votes for Revoke - with both Tory & Labour officially supporting Brexit, there seem very few votes for this atm
Which MPs have said they would support Revoke?

The scenario I was referring to was the specific circumstance where the government pursues No Deal. Ie where WA was voted down definitively - and we’re hurtling towards No Deal national emergency.

At that point, I do think sufficient MPs grasp the suicide of No Deal - to at that point force an emergency Revoke. Even amongst our benighted Parliament.

But that is a different kettle of fish from who supports Revoke now.

No-one is actively pursuing Revoke right now, and they’re not likely to say they would out loud for the moment.

.

Totally agree Tatiana

Get rid of her terrible WA and other options open up.

No-Deal will not happen

I wish I had your confidence!

The Tories and May want to be re-elected,.......... who will be blamed in the following GE ? May and the Tories.

Oh no, they will make mighty sure that it's someone else's fault.

jas, tatiana I don't share your confidence

No Deal will automatically happen unless we have either the WA or Revoke
I see neither enthusiasm in the HoC for Revoke, nor any plan to legally force may to do so.

What I do see is a clear, nearly inevitable path to No Deal, unless the WA is passed.

I have a forlorn hope May might Revoke on 29 March
BUT
it would start a Tory civil war and avoiding that is what has been driving her policy since Day 1 of her premiership.

We know she'll put her party before country
Most Tories seems to think they have a better chance of blaming the EU for a No Deal disaster,
than of avoiding the Tory party tearing itself to pieces after Revoke.

Let's hope she decides to go against 70% of her party members, since probably only about 70 Tory MPs would genuinely prefer No Deal to Revoke.

May will keep serving up the WA, like congealed porridge for every meal,
until there are enough MPs to either accept it,
or to pass an amendment to Revoke instead.

At that stage, they can only hope May accepts the moral authority of a Revoke vote,
because there seems no clear legal way to force her to write the letter to the EU Commission in time

We still have no idea where the Revoke votes would come from:
We need probably 30 Tory rebels vote against, plus all the PLP except their 8-10 Brexiters

BUT why should Corbyn allow a vote against, when No Deal is Labour's best chance at power ?

I see neither enthusiasm in the HoC for Revoke, nor any plan to legally force may to do so.

I don’t think you can possibly gauge now what the move to Revoke would be once we’re actively hurtling towards the cliffs. That is a case of national emergency and we’re not there quite yet.

Apart from anything else the chances of the entire government falling on the consequences of No Deal are high, and MPs will not want to lose their jobs.

I don’t believe May would Revoke now. The robot is not re-programmable.

I can't remember who it was on the last thread who said 'the consumer economy is over' but I agree. Without access to cheap and easy credit the UK economy is fucked, and Brexit is going to ruin that access. Although Tory austerity is accelerating it already. Our current economic policy as espoused by the racist PM will see our economy (based on us buying stuff) get fucked whether we leave or not.