Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Surely, if I understand it correctly, Bercow has gone against advice on procedure. I mean, yay and all that but surely it sets a risky precedent which might bite us on the arse.

As if the entire government wasn’t acting against ‘advice’.

{Part of me just wants to make all these flouncing no deal supporters actually put their tick in the box to clearly say that's what they want. If the majority really do want to crash out without a deal then so be it, but then at least they have had to say it and we can then move on and deal with the consequences. }
The problem being that they deny reality. They still have a unicorn utopia in their heads, not a 20% loss in wages (effectively) denial of healthcare, no job prospects and anything else that leaving actually means, either now or soon. They haven't got with the program that we haven't left yet so the 'minor inconveniences' that are appearing now haven't turned into the real thing.

Be careful what you wish for. Given a PV a significant % of Leavers would vote for No Deal. All the ones who haven’t got fucking clue of the consequences.

I think I've already made pretty clear that I am aware of that. In fact the post you quoted states that I am aware that could result in a vote of no deal and that in some ways even if the result was to go for no deal this would be better than dropping out due to the incompetence of our government.

But if parliament won't make a decision this is a risk we may have to take 1tisIleclarc

I hope I am proved wrong but the idea that parliament are suddenly going to agree to revoke in the next two and half months seems like unicorn and fairy land to me.

I agree with this...in my conversations (of a tiny sample!) there are:

A small minority who don't give a shit about the consequences to leave (I think these exist but were not represented in my conversations)

A minority who accept there will be consequences but have bought the line that these will be to the 'liberal elite', 'bankers' and 'Southerners' and we deserve a taste of what they've had

A majority who still harp on about 'project fear', that they don't believe the experts predications and nothing bad has happened yet like people said it would (one of these people has a PhD FFS)

I know @TatianaLarina , but Bercow isn't government and we are all counting on Parliament to protect us from No Deal chaos. If parliamentary procedure isn't followed to achieve something I want it means that can be ignored to achieve something I don't want.

Surely, if I understand it correctly, Bercow has gone against advice on procedure. I mean, yay and all that but surely it sets a risky precedent which might bite us on the arse.

"Extraordinary times require extraordinary thinking ..." ?

I also think a 'revoke' outcome is our remainer unicorn!

This is where an unwritten constitution cuts both ways.

I agree that Revoke is a Remainer unicorn. Well put.

@DGRossetti , I disagree that we have an unwritten constitution. It's written all over the place where nobody normal can find it but it's not unwritten as such.

I am not saying we should PV in a bubble. I am well aware of the risks and the fact that many will vote no deal and that maybe even a majority. I am saying we are reaching the point of last ditch attempts and million to one chances. It will be the end of march in no time at all. We need to start accepting that risks may have to be taken because I am just not convinced that trusting to our MPs to sort this out is working so we'll do far.

"Uncodified and unsystematic" might have been a better description ?

I see May is "promising" to release the EU assurances before the Big Brexit Vote next Tuesday. I wonder if that will be the fig leaf that pulls the vote

@BiglyBadgers I trust our MPs more than I trust the outcome of a PV that has No Deal as one of the options.

Just had a recruiter call me with a role in Leuven. 12 months contract, and you need to be able to demonstrate you can work in the EU after 29th March, which it seems has narrowed the field.

Typically, it's a beautiful day in Brum - hardly reason to move.

{I had a horrible experience this morning where somebody blocked my car (Belgian) in a supermarket car park, who was most apologetic when they heard my accent.}
I presume you were in the UK?
This is bothering me as my car is French registered and if I go to England it will be working in 'dodgy' areas.

From Twitter:

"Jacob Rees-Mogg is sat in the House of Commons with what looks suspiciously like a copy of Erskine May.
A storm of points of order like no other will surely follow PMQs over the selection of the Grieve amendment."

On what do you base that trust Bellinisurge? Nothing in the last two and half years has suggested they are able or willing to make a sensible agreement. How long do you plan on giving them? We are now 2.5 months away from the deadline and all I see is a small majority who have finally agreed what they don't want. There is no sign at all that they are any closer to agreeing what they do want and until they do we are dropping out without a deal.

{I agree that Revoke is a Remainer unicorn. Well put.}
I think (hope) that those who take a wider view of this dogs dinner see that 'leave' is the boil that needs lancing. At which point the UK will discover 'en masse' that 'Leave' wasn't what was needed after all and that proper running of the UK by the government to alleviate the poor areas and rejuvenate (reinvent) industry is what was wanted all along.

{Its about the 5th or 6th such situation that has occurred over the past 2 years - but never happened before.}
Thanks, that's increased my 'worry' level.

Another snippet from PMQs

"The immediate shouts of “no” from Conservative MPs when Ken Clark suggested extending the Article 50 period or revoking A50 altogether demonstrate how dangerous this option will be, to the Tories’ fraying unity…..."

I'm not rubbishing it - I just don't see the mechanism for it.

If Junker acts unilaterally then that just gives solid evidence that the EU is undemocratic.

I was of the thinking of the latter but from what I've heard think it's more viable than I thought. Its the politics that get in the way and more from a UK point of view than an EU one. Out of our sheer stubbornness.

I know the e27 public are not terribly happy about Brexit, and perhaps want shot of us but I also think a democratic way for a quick readmission isn't off the table either.

Chaos in the UK and a genuine and sincere request to rejoin might well be taken seriously in 3 or 4 months time - especially if Trump is continuing to destabilise the US and wider world.

I think this year will mark very volatile shifts in politics which will necessitate decisions and options which do not currently seem viable or likely.

Shock events are likely. That will have knock on effects if they come to pass.

What's the phrase...

'Events, dear boy, events'?