Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

Hear, hear LeClerc. Although I fear that is a magnificent, beautiful, shiny unicorn.

It would be a good time for someone to launch an attack on the UK. Russia perhaps, or even the Isle of Wight might be enough.

BTW I am starting to think a quick rejoin more likely than revoke as a possibility. Not that I think that it's likely. Just more likely than straight remain.

@BiglyBadgers , I base that trust on the fact that even annoying knobs like Oliver Letwin have voted against the government. I'll take a small majority in favour of not committing national suicide. We are in this mess because of a small majority.

And @BiglyBadgers , I'm a prepper. The only person I trust to feed my family is me.

Bercow's decision is interesting - against advice and against precedent, but it has a logic. As speaker he is supposed to represent and maintain the supremacy of Parliament. The Executive have shown themselves contemptuous of Parliament quite literally, and he is now in effect reinstating the preeminence of Parliament.

Sorry, I'm also of the opinion that a quick rejoin has hooves and glitter. 🦄

Perhaps one day we will rejoin but it will be years, perhaps decades. Even in the face of no deal chaos I think the next 2-3 years would be taken up backbiting and blaming.

In fact, I predict there will be a big period of denial where jobs are being lost and any attempts to demonstrate that this is a clear impact of Brexit will be met with increasingly far fetched alternative facts from Leavers.

Any disruption will be blamed on the EU and seen as the EU 'punishing' us

We'll be very much in the early days and mired in this squabbling and divisions will widen even further in the first few months.

Eventually as the demographics change, we see that the EU didn't fail when we walked away, the economic data shows that we're trailing behind the EU over a number of years and that the amazing trade deals we were promised were lies. Then we might rejoin. But there will be no rejoin dividend....global markets will have moved on, London will have lost its place as the European hub of finance and insurance, big manufacturing will have gone elsewhere and re-joining the EU won't reverse any of those decisions.

Happy Wednesday folks!

I think Revocation is only a plausible option in the scenario that the WA is voted down but Parliament hasn’t managed to get No Deal off the table. As the last ditch means of averting the cliff edge.

Other than that I don’t see it happening. If the WA is voted down and No Deal is defeated in HoC either by stymie or by an outright vote, then I don’t see a Revoke.

But my fear is that May will pull off the WA.

Most of Europe has or has had 'skeletons in the closet' with regard to their colonial past. France is having issues with Algeria which is bubbling under and so on. I think (guessing) that most of the Europeans that have renounced their former conquests have morphed their thinking into groupings nearer 'home' and with the EU project it is a workable position to be in.
The UK being an island hasn't got to grips with the loss of it's colonies, perhaps because it is attaching more significance to the commonwealth which if you are a 'person in the street' and not actually involved might look like the same as 'colonies'.
Thus the thinking is subtly (or perhaps not subtly) different.

But as I said it has taken two and half years for a small majority to decide they don't want a no deal exit. However unless they all agree what they do want and are prepared to force if through parliament and past all the folks who actually want no deal then what we will have is no deal. The amendments are a great start, but they are symbolic, they don't actually stop no deal happening if no other option is agreed upon.

The closer we get to the end of the line the more I find this blind trust in government to do what's right befuddling. And yet I am the one accused of living in a bubble.

Sorry, that was to Bellinisurge but I lost the name off the start somehow.

Bercow now talking in a point of order about the difference between a motion and an amendment.

The government motion voted on by the house stated that a motion could not be put forward by anyone but a government minister.

Bercow asserts that since that this is an amendment the speaker is NOT overruling the will of the house.

To much noise in the house.

Ken Clarke stands up and askes why the house isn't allowed to speak and suggests those who object should don a yellow jacket and go outside.

@BiglyBadgers , I don't have blind trust in the government. Whatever gave you that idea? I mean Parliament and the sterling work being done by Yvette Cooper. Who is bringing all sorts of odds and sods Tories like Letwin with her.

@umpteennamechanges Sadly I agree with every word.

Parl TV fascinating. Ken has spoken in support of Bercow allowing the amendment, making the point he cannot understand why so much effort being put into mps arguing not to be able to express their view.

He is seeking to re establish parl sovereignty

This Points of Order is FULL ON.

I think this could go on for some time as we get into a constitutional epic where everyone is trying to outwit every one else and how the Speaker interprets the parliamentary rule book.

Bercow's position is HUGELY important and crucial.

It could change Brexit. Also the speakers authority could be being stretched / challenged. Its a big moment but I think we will get more.

{Sorry, I'm also of the opinion that a quick rejoin has hooves and glitter. 🦄
Perhaps one day we will rejoin but it will be years, perhaps decades. Even in the face of no deal chaos I think the next 2-3 years would be taken up backbiting and blaming. }
I would think that say 6 months of 'no deal' catastrophe might (hopefully) persuade the government to start thinking. A rejoin after a year would become vaguely practical, with a hint of unicorn.
This might tie in with Trump's (hopeful) departure from the White House as the disasters that he is creating with China and Russia will need sorting out and messing around with the UK is quite low on the list of those priorities.

PARLY @ParlyApp
What the public can’t see is the chief whip feverishly briefing journalists and texting members in order to try and undermine your judgement says @SDoughtyMP

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 1 minute ago
Jermey Corbyn has long gone. But the PM is still in her seat as are all Cabinet.

This is important. He should be there. This isn't trival.

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
Today removes any doubt that Bercow is trying to rig the parliamentary game to thwart Brexit and the referendum result. #PoO

^^Seee

Corbyn is beneath contempt

Leadsom is now asking if Bercow had advice from the clarks of the house on this and whether he would consider publishing it.

HoC has gone nuts.

Woah Leadsome calling for publication of Bercow's advice from the clerks to allow amendment

Also the speakers authority could be being stretched / challenged. Its a big moment but I think we will get more.

I quoted this before Christmas ...

www.parliament.uk/business/publications/parliamentary-archives/explore-guides-to-documentary-archive-/archives-highlights/archives-speakerlenthall/

May it please your majesty, I have neither eyes to see nor tongue to speak in this place but as this house is pleased to direct me whose servant I am here; and humbly beg your majesty's pardon that I cannot give any other answer than this is to what your majesty is pleased to demand of me.

Only it's Theresa May - and the government - that are the tyrants.

Wayne David @WayneDavid_MP
It was good to see Mr Speaker telling the government Chief Whip that he would not be bullied over his selection of the amendment by Dominic Grieve. #Brexit

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
MPs reporting argument between Speaker and Chief Whip

Bercow said advice was given in private however he did have a written note too...

...but cant finished what he's saying due to noise.

He stresses it is right and proper. And that is his ruling.

Dunked in shit on his feet now....