Westministenders: Teetering on the edge

[RedToothBrush]

12 weeks to go.

There is rising confidence in the Extreme Brexiteer camp as well as open comments about how they can deliberately force through No Deal. Remember No Deal is the default. Every political crisis that takes up time makes no deal more likely and the ERG can just be obstructive to facilitate a political crisis. Parliament DO NOT have the ultimate power to stop Brexit - unless the government effectively allow an option to do so. And there is no sign May will let this ever happen. No Deal takes us back to pre-industrial revolution Britain in many social and economic ways. Which will please Jacob Rees-Mogg no end.

No Deal prep is now costing us a fortune - and is no where near sufficient in its scope. Won't someone think of all the extra that could have been put into the NHS.

Parliament returns next week. I hope you have enjoyed your Christmas break. What will happen in 2019 no one knows; the only certainity is turbulance and lurching from crisis to crisis. If we don't get hit by Brexit, maybe it will be the US shutdown crisis or the collaspe in the Chinese economy that will get us. Economists are nervous and thats generally not a good thing for the average person on the street.

Time to get in the euros, stock up on the tomatoes, invest in books and otherwise batten down the hatches financially whilst we await the coming storm in the hope that the forecasters are as good as Michael Fish in 1987.

There's nothing impossible about a no deal; it's frighteningly possible.

But no, it's not a good idea. I'm merely pointing out that we are in our own bubble here with 1/4 of the population actually preferring no deal as the outcome of this mess.

It's not unilateral - Junckers certainly can't decide; he is due to retire soon anyway
all 27 members would have to agree to a fast Track A49
I'm just saying the vibes are that they would agree

Or is that confirmation bias from you @DGRossetti?

It is very different offering several choices and asking for the #1 preference
and making only 2 or 3 choices available - which is when Remain wins.

PV and Revoke of course splits the Remain vote
Some more people would accept remain as their #2 choice, if a soft Brexit is not available

But no, it's not a good idea. I'm merely pointing out that we are in our own bubble here with 1/4 of the population actually preferring no deal as the outcome of this mess.

I must have missed the poll of 15,000,000 people. Maybe I popped out for some milk ?

As I say, statistics are meaningless without context. I'm calling bullshit on "a quarter of the population"

However, the reason I mention that a Fast Track rejoin looks feasible is precisely because of the danger of No Deal:

It is the default if one of the other possible, not fantasy options is not chosen
and atm it looks less risky politically, for May and also the Tories at the next GE, than Revoke

I never thought I'd be grateful to John Bercow! I've come to this thread from another women's forum where the Brexiteers shout louder than anyone else and have effectively stopped all discussion, so thank you to Red Toothbrush and all of you for this so much more interesting in-depth discussion.

When I asked my 26th daughter what would be her New Year wish if she could have one, instead of saying "better health" or a "new kitchen", she answered immediately "No Brexit". I hate what we are doing and the horrible hate-filled attitudes it has unleashed.

{Crawling back to Rejoin would be enough of a humilation}
German troops having to walk back to Germany from wherever they had got to was pretty humilliating. Bet they wished they hadn't go so far.

We know there is a Brexiter hardcore that want No Deal, rather than what they see as surrender in the WA, or Revoke.
Even that hardcore is down on what it was

Polls have been showing Remain growing significantly, since last summer in particular

It is the MPs that have to choose
and even if they have to call PV to break the logjam, it won't have 5 or 6 options,
but only 2 or at most 3.

That is where remain would probably - not certainly - win

I don't think I am in a bubble. I know the polls and I know the risks but unless parliament get their act together and start being grown ups I see no other choice.

Though recent amendments are something they are no real block to no deal if no other options are agreed upon. With current splits an agreement on what we should do instead of no deal still seems a long way away. If it's a choice between dropping out with no deal and putting it back to the people than I would favour a PV. It is a shit option. It possibly wouldn't work, but in the circumstances I'll grab onto whatever fraying rope I am handed and hope for the best.

The only other option is GE which I would rather avoid for reasons I've already stated.

I accept all these points...similar can be made about any of the opinion polls.

But still, it's pretty interesting reading all the same...and backed up by my chats with leavers, the majority of those I know who voted leave would prefer to leave with 'no deal' now (with a minority of one wishing to remain). FWIW these are all educated people, MC, etc not the 'stereotypical' leave voters. They don't even read the Daily Fail!

I'm merely making the suggestion that we are all horrified by no deal on this thread (and quite rightly IMO) but we shouldn't assume that it's what most other people think.

...and I wouldn't call any of the people I know hardcore Brexiters except for one.

I think the mood for No Deal is quite strong in a "Just get on with it" flounce sort of way.
ERG twats will keep trotting out "Project Fear " bollocks.
Dare I say I am mildly impressed with Gove [shudder] coming out and telling farmers No Deal would be a catastrophe.

Though recent amendments are something they are no real block to no deal if no other options are agreed upon.

But they are shifting the narrative. Like a supertanker, it won't happen overnight. If nothing else they're starting to put the onus on the no-dealers to sell no deal if that's what they want.

I can't imagine the ERG are at all happy with where we are, and even less with where things could possibly go from here. For now, I'm happy to take that as a Good Thing.

Dare I say I am mildly impressed with Gove [shudder] coming out and telling farmers No Deal would be a catastrophe.

Because he wants his career to progress, which it very likely will not if we end up with no deal.

Who knows. Maybe it will be the fact that MPs are quite self serving that will define the outcome ?

Part of me just wants to make all these flouncing no deal supporters actually put their tick in the box to clearly say that's what they want. If the majority really do want to crash out without a deal then so be it, but then at least they have had to say it and we can then move on and deal with the consequences.

In a way any clear decision would be better than what we have now which is mass confusion with nothing of any real use being done. If the government aren't going to make a decision than the public need to be able to do so even if the decision they end up making is a bloody stupid one.

Totally agree @DGRossetti , that he is saying it for his career because Boris is occupying the No Deal Hero space.like the twat he is.

Tories currently looking at ways to block the Grieve amendment, Jesus!

I think the mood for No Deal is quite strong in a "Just get on with it" flounce sort of way.

The mood for Boaty McBoatface was also quite strong. Remind me what happened ....

@Steven_Swinford

NEW

The Chief Whip has confronted John Bercow in the Chamber moments ago and warned that his decision to accept the Grieve amendment has damaged Parliament.

Bercow apparently responded by saying that he wouldn't be 'bullied' by Government whips

This is incredible stuff.

I agree DGR that the amendments are a good thing and they do give me some hope, but it is very little in reality and we are fast running out of time. Do we really have time to turn the tanker until parliament start agreeing on something before the deadline hits? My fear it's just going to be too damn slow.

{If Junker acts unilaterally then that just gives solid evidence that the EU is undemocratic.}
Mr Junker is not the EU, he is a representative of it.
The EU 'rules' as they are now are not static so if the EU27 rejigged A50/A49 texts in the next year which might favour the UK returning it COULD be done, democracy and all that.
There are many aspects to the EU that need 'adjustment' and Brexit will be a wake up call to review the procedures and rulings made by the EU I hope. They know that the world is changing ever more rapidly and that they will have to react positively, whether it is a wider, looser union, tighter narrowed version or concentric rings of countries on differing 'levels'. One size would never fit all.

I loathe Gove but I actually believe that he never intended for a no deal Brexit of course it would have been helpful to figure these things out in advance but I blame Cameron for that one

{Maybe it will be the fact that MPs are quite self serving that will define the outcome ?}
Ouch!

Part of me just wants to make all these flouncing no deal supporters actually put their tick in the box to clearly say that's what they want. If the majority really do want to crash out without a deal then so be it, but then at least they have had to say it and we can then move on and deal with the consequences.

Be careful what you wish for. Given a PV a significant % of Leavers would vote for No Deal. All the ones who haven’t got fucking clue of the consequences.