Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Brexit
Original poster

Is it me or is no Brexit looking a whole lot more likely tonight?

239 replies

Bearbehind · 04/12/2018 18:14

If no deal is pretty much off the table following the parliamentary votes tonight then the choice is ‘shit deal’ or no Brexit.

It’s clear which Remainers would prefer but what about Leavers?

OP posts:
TatianaLarina · 07/12/2018 15:00

deadbudgie If you apply your list of factors to the credibility of Brexiter predictions of a) being better off outwith the EU and b) short term pain + long term gain.

Where do you get to?

You only have Minford on + mate on your side and his model is based on a) the decimation of manufacturing in this country and b) a naive 70s model of the way trade functions.

DGRossetti · 07/12/2018 15:04

The UK has already been told it's got a back seat now when it comes to European data protection policies ... basically we'll just be required to implement what's decided with very little say.

1tisILeClerc · 07/12/2018 16:05

deadbudgie
Thanks for answering my questions, the first two being matters of opinion and could be reasonably argued further either way.
The big issue, which I was hoping to get an idea of, is what you think the UK can do 'trade' wise to fund it's necessary imports of food and materials (as the UK is not self sufficient). Many of the activities of the UK are 'me too' with possibly an exception of very hi tech pharma development which due to the need to be as 'international' as possible is heading off to elsewhere in the EU.
I think it was scientists at a university in Manchester who 'discovered' graphene. The possible uses are incredible but almost as soon as the early ideas were published, companies around the world snapped up patents for it's possible use, even if some are not technologically possible at the moment. Slow reaction by other UK technologists have 'lost' some of this advance to others.

lljkk · 07/12/2018 20:00

Who is "The Common Man"?

1tisILeClerc · 07/12/2018 20:10

{Who is "The Common Man"?}
Not sure but there is a fanfare for him.

lljkk · 07/12/2018 21:06

I mean, I don't live in London, am not in higher tax bracket. I don't manage other people. But I'm not the 'Common Woman', either.

Is it shorthand for English-born white working class?

1tisILeClerc · 07/12/2018 21:18

{Is it shorthand for English-born white working class?}
Not sure it is that well defined. I always equate it to be someone you pass in the street who is neither overtly rich or poor, and you have no idea what they actually do in life. Mr or Ms 'average'.

Peregrina · 07/12/2018 23:23

Isn't it supposed to be the person on the Clapham Omnibus? Does that still run?

catx1606 · 08/12/2018 09:10

I think staying in the EU now would be a very dangerous decision to make. We were asked back in 2016 what we wanted to do and we're told what we decided would be done. Neither campaigns were innocent. There will be riots on the street if this decision is ignored. Also there is no guarantee that the EU will welcome us in with open arms. They could treat us as an example, be very hard on us, showing other countries what would happen if they chose to leave.

Peregrina · 08/12/2018 09:24

I am honestly not sure that there would be rioting on the streets, apart from the EDL types who would never resist the opportunity for a good punch up. 700,000 gathered for a People's vote - when has Farage managed more than a couple of 100?

If a serious attempt was made to tackle austerity then most people would be happy enough.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 09:28

It will be interesting to see what happens with Tommy Robinson march tomorrow.

jasjas1973 · 08/12/2018 09:32

There is a ukip brexit betrayal rally on Sunday, 4000 people have said they will go or are interested in the event!

Lets see how many pitch up before making scary predictions.

As for the EU punishing us? what utter crap! we remain members with exactly the same rights and obligations as before...
Leaver Project fear lol!

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 09:39

How can you 'betray' something that isn't defined?

Brexit means Brexit ??????WTF is that?

Furby means Furby. Ah, I know what a furby is, a fluffy 'talking' toy, I think we voted for that when Mrs May was elected.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 09:43

Leavers declaring 'Project Fear' is simply their realisation that they have no plans whatsoever. So they have got as far as going outside and slammed the door behind them and are discovering that it is pissing with rain and cold and their coat is on the hook inside.

Buteo · 08/12/2018 09:55

Neither campaigns were innocent.

I don’t see the Remain campaign being fined for misconduct by the Electoral Commission nor it’s backers and cheerleaders facing criminal investigations?

Also there is no guarantee that the EU will welcome us in with open arms. They could treat us as an example, be very hard on us, showing other countries what would happen if they chose to leave.

We haven’t left. If Article 50 is revoked then we remain on our current terms.

Peregrina · 08/12/2018 10:01

If Article 50 is revoked then we remain on our current terms

We will have destroyed a lot of good will, and I suspect that if we come whining for special terms in future we will be ignored. At the time we entered the EEC, the UK was the sick man of W Europe and the special terms were valid. Once the UK encouraged the Eastern bloc countries to join, it must have become abundantly clear that they were even sicker than we were and the reason for special terms is no longer as convincing.

jasjas1973 · 08/12/2018 10:11

We need to remember that if Art50 was revoked (highly unlikely) we'd have at the very least, a new PM and next year, a new EU commission.

Things would soon be forgotten as self interest & new personalities take over.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 10:23

{Things would soon be forgotten as self interest}
I think this element is not true.
The 'Wars of the roses' is still being played out in Yorkshire/Lancashire as well as other rather more prominent 'occasions' that I won't mention.
The UK has both destroyed trust by it's actions over the last 3 years and some have been openly stupid enough to state that they would be prepared to rip up treaties so no the UK has a hell of a job on it's plate.
Moving forward I don't see the EU taking any more crap from the UK. A significant amount of the infrastructure needed in the EU for a 'UK having left' is well under way and before long whether it leaves or not will be approaching academic.

catx1606 · 08/12/2018 10:33

You will never see a true representation of a leavers march on TV as they have virtually never been covered by the media. I see the filming of them on social media by people who are actually there and know that what you see and hear on TV isn't exactly what's actually happening. The annoymous movement for example. I was in London the day that happened a few years ago. I had no idea if was going on as we had gone to London for a day out. When we got home, inloookednit up to see what it was all about. What they portrayed on the TV wasn't what was happening.

catx1606 · 08/12/2018 10:35

"i don’t see the Remain campaign being fined for misconduct by the Electoral Commission nor it’s backers and cheerleaders facing criminal investigations?"

They did project fear though didn't they?.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 10:45

The so called 'Project Fear' is not taking livelihood and prosperity from UK citizens. It is a set of statements that life as is known in the UK will get harder and people will get poorer. The UK has not left yet, but the value of the Pound has fallen by around 3% since 2016 and people are already losing jobs. Granted the figures given for the 'fall' in prosperity may be quite wildly out but so far NONE of them has shown that prosperity will increase, which is one of the 'reasons' for leaving. The UK is only a small part of the world economy and there have been some serious shifts globally which prevent UK analysts from predicting what will happen to the UK.

lljkk · 08/12/2018 11:00

Leave campaign were fined for financial mismanagement & overspend. Remain side(s) haven't been found to do those financial crimes.

There are still problems with where Leave side got their money & campaign finance violations being investigated.

Can someone explain in simple terms who will make big money out of Brexit, and how? I read up on disaster capitalism but don't quite understand the business model.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 11:06

The simplest model for benefitting from disaster capitalism might be to take as much 'cash' (Pounds) out of the UK and put it into other currency which is more stable. When the Pound devalues, buy more pounds and wait for it to rise again. Having a close eye on the trends of financial dealings and the ability to react withing half an hour or less allows money to 'see saw' backwards and forwards, gradually increasing the total. Mechanisms to do with loans and liabilities also exist but I have no idea how that works.
If you have money, it is relatively easy to make a lot more.

1tisILeClerc · 08/12/2018 11:10

Being able to 'see' when the Pound may rise or fall, or even influence it makes things more 'fun' for those that can do it.
When Mrs May gave her speech in Saltzburg, the value of the Pound dropped by nearly 1% over the hour of the speech. Knowing what she was going to say and the likely reaction of the markets allow you to 'bet' on these events.

lljkk · 08/12/2018 11:12

Currency speculation, then.
I thought something to do with manufacturing sector collapse also had a profit margin in it, they 'they' know how to exploit.

Guardian talks about outsourcing imperialism to make a profit, but it's in a total break-down of the state situation.