Is it me or is no Brexit looking a whole lot more likely tonight?

[Bearbehind]

If no deal is pretty much off the table following the parliamentary votes tonight then the choice is ‘shit deal’ or no Brexit.

It’s clear which Remainers would prefer but what about Leavers?

Interesting development of the Leaver argument that now it was actually Remainers who didn't know what they were voting for.

I guess when your opponent tries to use your tactics, it's an admission of defeat ? It's certainly a backhanded compliment.

Also, as members we had a say - a significant say. It was the UK that effectively rushed to admit the eastern European countries - over very legitimate concerns from other EU members.

Deadbudgie
Remaining would have seen the fortune of the UK approximately follow the EU which due to global influences (not helped by Trump) has seen a small decline.
In your analysis of the UK where did you see the UK gaining significant improvements over it's position within the EU such as better deals with other countries outside the EU. As you are aware the UK is a pretty small island that is not self sufficient in food and has largely used up mineral resources so what were you proposing the UK could do, that it couldn't already that will 'undercut' the EU and in fact, with trading on 'new' deals under the WTO, which will take many years to establish also undercut the workers in China, India and Bangladesh? For workers to make things which can rival the things made in these countries you first need to overcome the tariff burden (say an average of 10%) and pay wages. This roughly suggests that UK workers would have to be paid even less (by 10%) than those in sweatshops in Bangladesh.
Yes being in the EU prices are 'fixed' and possibly higher than they could be, and that is a situation that gradually evolves but through discussion in the European parliament eventually things will change.

Jason, I’m interested as to why you think Remainers can predict the future. Unfortunately, the prevelance of referencing the power of veto would only ever have a minimal effect on the future shape of the EU or any of its successors. The fundamental freedoms are not challangesble by any member state, the increasing liberal interpretation of these by the ECJ and how they affect domestic legislation for instance, is only going to become more invasive, in my view.

The framework that is already in place had the ability to infiltrate more and more areas the power of veto will have no power in these situations. Furthermore, recent political actions would suggest those in our country who would exercise the power of veto will not always necessarily act in the interests of the people.

@Deadbudgie , I can predict that our country won't go through actual economic and social turmoil if we avoid No Deal. What are your predictions?

If you promise people what they want and tell them that the reasons why they don't have it now is someone else's fault its very difficult to counter that.

The Leave campaign did this and therefore the remain campaign struggled to match it by using facts and figures, even when talking about the benefits of remaining in the EU it was only promising no change.

The blaming of the remain campaign absolves the leave, it was the leave campaign that won through dupluicitous methoids and promising the earth to all and sundry.

DRG
I would like my toaster to Remain being a toaster, but it is hinting it wants to be a lawnmower. How can I persuade it otherwise? It wants to go from the comfort of my kitchen to the rough, tough world of mud, nettles and wild beasts. Frankly I don't think it will make it out there, it was only a tenner from ASDA and I don't think it is cut out for this pressure.

You can have irrevocable referenda OR democracy but you can't have both.
There will never be a 'right answer' in any democracy but to move forward there needs to be an agreement amongst leavers as to precisely what leave means. Some say no deal, others Norway+, Canada +, Turkey, Switzerland etc etc. It will be a shitshow until this is decided. If the decision can be made, the implications have to be clear e.g. more immigration (under Canada +) or in NI, throwing the DUP under a bus with a border in the Irish sea. Then people in the north of Ireland surely deserve a say if they want this or not as many in NI who voted for brexit would surely vote remain (or spoil their ballot) if this is the reality. A peoples vote on the actual deal will be the only way that people can decide what is right for them and democracy will be restored. Although i dont like referenda as they are so divisive, (+ we need an effective regulator to stop abuses), how people voting on the facts at any time can be viewed as undemocratic is beyond me

Nice try Dead, no one can predict the future, but you can make a stab at likely outcomes, based on trends, data, and facts, rather than just hoping things will get better. Your idea that a veto become less of a veto over time is non-sensical. Your idea that a UK government might not use the veto 'in the right way' (whatever that means) is true, but any government of the day could royally fuck over any part of the population if they so wished, EU membership or none.

@deadbudgie

“I’m really not sure what anyone’s responses have to do with what I’ve said. Mind you, that’s the ardent remainers all over, not actually listening to what people are saying”

You said it’s anti-democratic to ever vote on the same issue again.

I pointed out the contradiction in your argument, since the 2016 referendum was not the first vote on the issue.

You didn’t respond.

If anyone here is guilty of bigotry in choosing not to listen, which i agree some probably are, then you’ll have to include yourself in that. Sorry.

Actually, the extremes of both sides of the Brexit argument are very, very similar in the way they act. There’s no wonder they hate each other...

Isn't it funny that Leavers always say you can't predict the future, but voted because of promises of the future being better?

Boris, I’m saying no one can predict the future, only use our judgement, so both sides basically voted for an unpredictable future (unless,of course, you think Remainers have magical powers).

Jm thanks for clarifying your point which I will now address. I think there is quite a clear distinction between a once in a generation vote regarding membership Of something that has massively changed in substance and form during that period and a second vote within 2 years where largely the same people will be voting twice on very much the same institution. Sorry if I have not answered any other points but as I’m sure you’ll appreciate it’s quite difficult routing out the perfectly reasonable points of debate from the sea of hysterical vitriol. If there are any other questions which you think fall into the former category that I haven’t spotted please bring them to my attention and I will happily provide my thoughts.

It is very difficult, and I can actually see arguments both sides, nothing in this world is a series of absolutes. In fact, I was one of the many “undecideds” throughout the referendum campaign. I think everyone has the right to their own view points certainly, I’m happy to provide my opinion, but like every other post here, it is just that. I have based my opinion on my own research, knowledge and experience. I will happily engage with anyone who wants to put forward a reasoned argument. Unfortunately this means routing though some rather poor arguments.

In order to judge how accurate predictions are I would look at the credbility of those making them, and what the majority opinion. Whilst leavers like to use every single type of attack on the BIE, UCL, LSE, Oxford Economics, the IMF, OECD, Treasury, Harvard etc. The consensus is that Brexit, and especially a hard brexit, will be extremely damaging to the UK.

Only Patrick Minford and a few others seem to think that it will be beneficial, and only then under a very specific set of conditions that have very little basis in reality.

Well you certainly haven't answered my question as to where you see the UK's significantly greater prosperity coming from.
No one in any of the government have managed it either but it would be interesting to know exactly where it will come from.

Boris, in judging the credibility of any such predictions I would be looking at a number of factors:

1. The accuracy of past predictions;
2. The data and perameters on which their predictions are based;
3. Their own political bias;
4. Economic pressures (eg were they backed financially in any way by universities who oppose Brexit or do they rely on support by any other group whose views they are reflecting);
5. Whether their argument contained any balance (all arguments should at least acknowledge alternative views);
6. The accessibility of their findings, both physically and intellectually to all those concerned; and
7. How and by whom any extracts from full predictions are reported.

I would also be analysing what their views are on the long term, eg 10 years out, are. As, in my opinion this is how we have to judge Brexit. Obviously others might have alternative ways off assessing information.

1tis, I will happily answer this now. I think there are several strands to this one, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you’re asking why do I think we will be better economically coming out of the EU than staying in?

The first point to consider is do I think the EU offers us economic stability? In short, the answer in no. Too many diverse economies (some very much behind where the stronger EU economies are) are being drawn together in one melting pot. As in any union the strong end up supporting the weak (in this case via the ECB). It seems likely to me the Eurozone will have increasing issues trying to deal with this differential internally.

The second point to consider is how the EU deals with external parties. Here, I can understand the view of bigger is better. However negotiating for the best position for each individual country cannot be achieved, especially with such diverse economies. Here I too err on it’s better out than in, but this is me being much closer to sitting on the fence.

1. How will we make money once outside the EU. Well I have always accepted that there would be a transitioning period whereby things might get worse before they get better. But in my personal set of priorities I look at the long term gain for short term pain. In the long term we will be free to negotiate with the rest of the world on our own terms, negotiations based on the strengths and weaknesses of our own economy. It will be up to us to shape our own economy to make it competitive and workable with this context, unfettered by EU law.

1. The accuracy of past predictions;

The accuracy of most of these groups is fairlly high. Leave voters like to highlight the 2008 economic crisis, but forget that this was down to banks misreporting details, rather than the information available to the organisations highlighted.

2.The data and perameters on which their predictions are based; This is a good one, the data is based on a vast array of well sourced economic information, especially by the treasury and the BOE

1. Their own political bias;. The organisations I listed have no political bias. In fact its in their vested interest to remian impartial.

4.Economic pressures (eg were they backed financially in any way by universities who oppose Brexit or do they rely on support by any other group whose views they are reflecting); No UK university relies on EU funding, the vast majority of funding comes from fees and our own government, and businesses comissioning research.

1. Whether their argument contained any balance (all arguments should at least acknowledge alternative views); Miost of them looked at the predictions made by leavers and dismissed them as poorly thoughtout in both theory and application.

The accessibility of their findings, both physically and intellectually to all those concerned; and

1. How and by whom any extracts from full predictions are reported.

All easily accessible, just rarely reported accurately in the MSM.

@deadbudgie
Sort of get your point that Remainers were also voting for an uncertainty in that the EU and UK's relationship with it will develop in future and it is difficult to predict how. Arguably they were voting for ever greater union as per existing texts/treaties but I suspect most were voting for status quo - continuation of our current wary/suspect EU engagement.

In reality, UK gov had already made further EU integration subject to democratic veto; were you aware of the Act 2011 [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Act_2011]]? Personally wasn't aware in 2016 but clearly UK gov had already placed further integration in the hands of the people. UK population would have been consulted on changes to EU relationship.

It will be up to us to shape our own economy to make it competitive and workable with this context, unfettered by EU law

When we last tried this in the 50s 60s and 70s it didn't go so well, we had tremendous advantages then because we had so few competitors yet still we failed.

Our economy is not limited by EU law, we ve total freedom on investment and monetary policy as we are not in the eurozone, unless you think that propping up failed industries works?

Like most leavers, you have wish lists and dreams.

"Unfettered by EU law". I've got bad news for you, if we don't have data protection equivalence we will struggle to trade freely with the EU where British businesses have EU customers.
I've got more bad news for you. The GDPR , which is law in the UK which is from the EU is the latest iteration of EU data protection law. Which they got from the UK. We had data protection law in this country before the EU did. To trade with the EU where you collect information from individuals in the EU, you need data protection adequacy. Chances are we'll get it because we will keep GDPR.
So that ain't going any time soon.

It’s like we’ve all been to the EU pub, decided to leave in a massive huff and then got stuck in the doors and we are so pissed we are fighting with our own reflection in the mirrored windows.

This is the most accurate description of Brexit I’ve seen so far!

"the common man felt ignored" nonsense! I'm a remainer, in Scotland and disabled & on benefits, so I'm about as much 'common man' as you get. Like hell did leave speak to me because it had NO FOUNDATION. It's people like me who are going to be the most screwed! Just today in the news talk of flying in and rationing emergency meds, switching people onto generic equivalents (which is not always exactly the same and can be extremely problematic).

The leavers I know voted largely on false information that they now know to be false.

"I would vote leave again tomorrow" genuine question - why? When you now KNOW the highly likely negative effects it's going to have on people like me? On yourself, your family?

Bellini I have quite a few friends in Kent they're dreading any kind of brexit frankly. For months now those that I know there have been planning, inc seriously considering where possible being ANYWHERE else for at least a month, those that work on the border side of things have been prepping. They're going to be first & hardest hit!

"it was left to people to inform themselves and decide which side they were happy to sit." Which many didn't do, instead believing nonsense like the bus!

As jason says, remain knew what we were voting for cos we were already living it! It was a known quantity.

"All anyone could do, on either side is look to past and present" of course there was change! That's life it's called progress! As for looking for the evidence of the likely future of remaining - continuing peace within Europe, continuing good smooth running trade relations, continuing support for the lowest paid workers in terms of workers rights, continuing reciprocal health care, the continued ability for uk residents to live and work in eu, the continued provision of labour to the uk of eu expats in crucial areas like the nhs (inc recouping costs of having trained them!), continuing tourist revenue due to ease of movement, the continued right to have a SAY in all this... Yea horrible things 🙄 can't imagine why we'd want to keep all that and more!

The current deal very much seems to me staying in Eu WITHOUT a vote and paying for the bloody privilege! And not just financially!

"If you promise people what they want and tell them that the reasons why they don't have it now is someone else's fault its very difficult to counter that." And yet we've seen that before and how divisive and destructive it is - within Europe! "Lest we forget" seems some people never learned in the first place.

"any government of the day could royally fuck over any part of the population if they so wished, EU membership or none." Damn sight more likely out of the eu which is another reason I voted remain. Especially under this current govt who are already using policy to punish the poorest and most vulnerable in our society.

The GDPR , which is law in the UK which is from the EU is the latest iteration of EU data protection law.

If Google, Facebook and Apple have to obey (which they do) despite being US companies, what chance does anyone think the UK has of trying to go "up yours ugly" to the EU ?

"I would vote leave again tomorrow" genuine question - why? When you now KNOW the highly likely negative effects it's going to have on people like me? On yourself, your family?

This is what I don’t get. Who looks at this utter clusterfuck going on and thinks “oh this is marvellous, exactly what I voted for!”

The GDPR , which is law in the UK which is from the EU is the latest iteration of EU data protection law.

Our government had the choice whether to comply or not given the imminence of Brexit. Our elected MPs chose to comply (using their own sovereign powers).

Why did they comply? Because any international company in India, the US, China anywhere who wishes to hold data about any citizens living in the EU has to comply with the data protection for their individuals.

Not having GDPR-level data compliance would mean Britain would be shut out of a market with more than 500 million consumers. I know we are keen to shut that off anyway.

Jeez -Data protection may be a hassle but it's a good thing. The world's growing digital economy means all decent countries need to keep updating people’s personal data protection to stop large corporations unscrupulously exploiting the information they hold.** Its about protecting the little person.

Using chunks of the the GDPR in our 2018 Data protection act just cut down on some of the legwork involved.