Is it me or is no Brexit looking a whole lot more likely tonight?

[Bearbehind]

If no deal is pretty much off the table following the parliamentary votes tonight then the choice is ‘shit deal’ or no Brexit.

It’s clear which Remainers would prefer but what about Leavers?

I will vote Labour again when they get back to reality, in the meantime, I spoil my paper and if a referendum comes up again I will vote leave this time. At least I can vote and directly lobby - using little resources going to my MPs surgery - those making laws here.

I can only find reference to ECHR not the ECJ in regard to judgements against the UK in regard to trans gender rulings.

I think there is a major flaw in the way the UK runs referenda in that no one seems to be responsible for fact checking the claims made.

In Ireland - we have referendums fairly regularly as we have a written constitution.

There is a public body called the Referendum Commission www.refcom.ie - "The Referendum Commission is an independent body that explains the subject matter of referendum proposals, promotes public awareness of a referendum, and encourages the electorate to vote"

This means each side is held to account to ensure they present their position accurately.

I also suggest you go to the feminist chat board and see all the EU funding going to junk science that is damaging children and women.

At least I can raise awareness outside the EU with the government and charities funding damaging ideologies. Women took to the streets and went to the press.

I am not voting to stay in the current form of EU, if it changes I may in future vote to go back in as a member state.

I am happy to take EU trading laws for a variety of reasons.

Productivity outside London needs to be increased, hopefully once we are no longer a tourist EU state, we can improve life for the lowest skilled/paid and productive - despite working hard.

I like how its always Leavers who get accused of skirting around questions and not giving a direct answer.
Separate to the Brexit debate itself, just on the basis of the government refusing the UK people what they voted for what would happen to Parliament and our democracy as a whole?

Separate to the Brexit debate itself, just on the basis of the government refusing the UK people what they voted for what would happen to Parliament and our democracy as a whole?

But thats the nub of the problem, no one can agree on what Brexit means, for some its WTO, for others its a Norway SM or Swiss style as promised by Hannon and Farage, plus all shades in between.

Thats why Parliament cannot agree, there were a million and one reasons for the brexit vote.
Whatever happens when we leave there will be large numbers of brexit voters who will be very unhappy.

Plus of course 16m people who will feel completely ignored and thats not a great outcome either.

If there is a second referendum, what happens if Leave wins again?
I voted leave reluctantly last time, after much deliberation. I'm not racist, anti immigration, or thick, and I certainly didn't believe the big red bus.
Just wondered if it will be put back to the people.

{Just wondered if it will be put back to the people.}
It may be a tough sell.
Many years of greater austerity. Selling the NHS to the USA. Allowing imports of whatever others want to sell the UK.
Employment rights will be eroded (the ERG have already suggested this).
Arguing about human and/or women's rights may become a 'luxury'.
Whichever party may be 'in power' after March 29th will be exceedingly strapped for cash especially if/when significant chunks of the manufacturing/finance industry departs.
Garden of Seeds.
The rules are 'no cherrypicking' you want out of the EU so you need to accept all the downsides too. As members of the EU you can lobby the EU for changes to rights, and you would have supporters across Europe.
Out of the EU you will be up against the likes of the ERG who don't give a shit about anybody except themselves.

I am not saying the EU is perfect, but on the outside you can change nothing. Anything other than 'remaining' will see the UK either as a rule taker or in a 'crash out' / no deal situation, basically all hell breaks loose.

I’m on the Feminist chat board, Garden. I see no such threads there. The current Transactivism is coming from the US and Canada, with a good pinch of Australia thrown in.

"If there is a second referendum, what happens if Leave wins again?"

Then all of us will be dragged thru the shit to satisfy the 'Will of the People'. But at least we'll know it is the genuine will of a majority.

I wonder if there were another vote & Leave won again, would we get the next 7 days, lots of people popping up on radio phone ins to say how much they regretted their vote, and they 'only voted Leave to give the Establishment a kicking'. I doubt it. At least we'd know a genuine majority of those who can be bothered to vote want this crapola for the next 20 yrs. "Sovereignty" is worth it to them. Plus industry would know the resolve is firm and how to plan their business future accordingly. Another Leave Result would bring more certainty than we have now.

I think there is a major flaw in the way the UK runs referenda in that no one seems to be responsible for fact checking the claims made.

The "major flaw" is that we shouldn't be having referendums. What the fuck are our supposed representatives doing with all that money we give them at gunpoint ?????? In the UKs political system, there's no place for referenda - as Brexit clearly shows.

No government will overrule the original decision, they may put it back to the people, and I wouldnt be certain that remain would win.

The EUCJ ordered the UK to give away women's rights - so human rights, to promote compelled speech and removed rights to religious and philosophical beliefs - all for a legal fiction.

I think you may be tilting at the wrong windmill here, Garden. Do you mean the ECHR not the CJEU?

I’m with you on Labour and misogyny though, Garden.

"Much as I’d like a no Brexit, the national humiliation and outcry would be too great." I think that ships long sailed!

Talking to expat and non Brit friends we're already a laughing stock internationally as a result of this utter farce!

"Admitting we were wrong and stepping back from the brink would show that the UK is a strong and mature democracy." Possibly true. Not sure.

"If Brexit is not delivered, then there WILL be riots" I highly doubt that! Brits are too apathetic at the moment, and it wouldn't change anything anyway. There's been umpteen marches, petitions & protests and yes even riots on various matters in recent years and it's (sadly) made not one jot of difference to how the govt acts. I don't think anything like that has since the poll tax protests & even that was just an excuse to get rid of thatcher (happy to be corrected).

Leave voters were generally older so I'd be really surprised if they rioted (excepting as has been mentioned certain small extreme right wing groups who'd soon be squashed).

"and if Brexit isn't delivered, I genuinely believe that the largest gathering our nation has ever seen will take to the streets to voice peaceful dissatisfaction." Again I think this highly unlikely. Not least because I know a fair few in real life and have read in various sources that there are people who voted leave but have now changed their minds or are ambivalent. If you really believed it was going to be a simple thing to leave you were woefully ignorant/misinformed when casting your vote. "Brexit means brexit" "leave means leave" are meaningless because even brexiters can't agree exactly what they mean!

"What on earth is there for the Brexiteers to fear, unless it's that "the people" may have actually changed their minds?" That's exactly what they fear, clearly.

"Lib Dems are damaged goods - people don't trust them and who can blame them?" Completely agree.

" 'Leavers' have had over 2 1/2 years to define what a 'Brexit' is and have still failed." Exactly can't even agree among themselves.

"All the political parties, with the exception of UKIP and the Communist parties, are in thrall to the Transgender movement at the moment. It was the Conservatives who wanted to introduce Self-ID." Agreed. The claim that the tories haven't been just as guilty of this bullshit is false. They've just been marginally more subtle about it. On this issue they're all (the major parties) as bad as each other!

"At least I can raise awareness outside the EU with the government and charities funding damaging ideologies." Good luck getting anywhere with that. Frankly I'm concerned leaving eu will mean a huge disintegration of human rights in this country for everyone. The tories aren't called the nasty party without reason!

"I am not voting to stay in the current form of EU, if it changes I may in future vote to go back in as a member state." What on earth makes you think you'd have that choice?? Certainly not any time soon if we do leave.

"Another Leave Result would bring more certainty than we have now." Agree, don't think it would happen though. And that's why leavers don't want another vote, because they know there's a real possibility they'd lose at this point.

Leavers would lose at this point.

Essentially the leave campaign was like a 16 year old boy trying to get his 16 year old girlfriend into bed, promising the earth and that they would do everything that you want if they could just get this one thing.

@GardenofSeeds

Productivity outside London needs to be increased, hopefully once we are no longer a tourist EU state, we can improve life for the lowest skilled/paid and productive - despite working hard.

It beggars belief that anyone could be this naive.

Leavers would lose at this point.

I wouldn't be so arrogant to assume that.

Majority never thought they would win first time around.

Leavers would lose at this point

Leavers would have lost at any point if instead of "Do you want to Leave" the question had been a selection of possible options on Leaving. The sick-making result being that the "will of the people" was corrupted so that whatever the outcome, it would not be what any majority wanted.

It was never going to be possible to deliver anything on a 52/48 split. It's the equivalent of saying that from now on all toilets must be men only. Or women only. After all, that would have been "the will of the people".

"Majority never thought they would win first time around."

Actually this is a myth leave were in the lead in many polls taken prior to the referendum.

I'm not being arrogant either, there are staunch leavers and they may make up the majority. BUT there were a whole load of voters in the referendum who don't usually vote and may not again, there is plenty of evidence of protest votes, and also you'd probably find higher majorities for remain in remain areas, and swings in areas where it was close.

Leave would lose, that's why even JRM who suggested two referendums before the first one, is now calling for this one to be sacrosanct.

It was a one off opportunity in time, they made the most of it, it wouldn't happen again.

Unfortunately the vote to remain wasn't clear either. A lot more people would have voted remain had the question been " vote to keep the status quo of the EU"....instead perhaps it should have said
" vote to remain and hope it stays as it is"
"vote for David Cameron's deal"
"vote to join the euro and schengen"
"vote for PESCO"

Leavers would have lost at any point if instead of "Do you want to Leave" the question had been a selection of possible options on Leaving.

That probably wouldn't have been allowed as part of the initial referendum as it would have split votes and weighted in favour of one option so it is doubtful it would have got through the electoral comission.

Leave would lose

Have a crystal ball do you? No thought not.

Don't bet on only leavers not voting either. I know of some remainers and reluctant remainers who have said they wouldn't vote in another referendum.

Nothing is certain and to assume it is is arrogant.

there were a whole load of voters in the referendum who don't usually vote and may not again

combination of the grim reaper and a belief "job done" ...

there was pure genius in the way UKIP was able to mobilise people who had previously been politically inactive to vote, it was only ever going to be a flash in the pan. However, we're now discovering why those people didn't vote ... they're back on the sidelines again.

I suspect Farages most recent "Leave" action is abandoning a sinking ship ...

Last election (2017) there was a gentleman - at least 80 - who admitted he had never voted in his life as he asked the tellers what he should do. (And I can't fault their professionalism). I'd loved to have asked him Why, now ?????? What was it about the 2017 election that had prompted him to vote, having missed the 20 or so GEs since he was of majority ? (To say nothing of local elections).

There now begins a debate about compulsory voting . The congregation will stand.