Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

[lonelyplanetmum]

Consensual red tape (that applies mostly to food, agriculture, and employment standards) is valuable to protect us all from dodgy dangerous food, produce and working conditions.

Haven't people read about the multi billion Koch empire in the states? It pushed and pushed to drive the Bush and subsequent administrations into an anti-regulatory­ agenda. People died as a result. Lots of people.

Just google Koch industries, benzene and deaths.

[MyOtherProfile]

Exactly - remainers are the slaves of big money making corporations.
D'oh. Right up until this comment I actually thought @surfjet was being serious. Didn't realise they were just making it up for a joke. Got it now.

[surferjet]

Is Tony Blair a struggling carpenter?
Is Gina Miller an impoverished school dinner lady?

Because if your backers were all lower working class ordinary people I’d bow to your arguments. But they’re not.
They have their own selfish agendas.

[MeganBacon]

Hesta you can read the underlying assumptions of the brexit scenario from page 18 of the bofe’s ‘financial stability report’ dated November 2018, issue no. 44. Sorry can’t link from my phone but easy to google.

[surferjet]

It’s reported that Tony Blair is worth 60 million.
My heart bleeds for him.

[Notonthestairs]

Tony Blair is not shifting funds to Ireland.

[surferjet]

How do you know what Tony Blair does with his money?

[surferjet]

& then there’s the small matter of Blair wanting a nice litter earner job within the EU.
Nothing personal about his reasons for wanting to stay lol

[Notonthestairs]

I was going to reply with something deeply silly but decided against it.

What I will say is that I have a disabled child and a father with cancer. The systems built to support them are on their knees and run on good will.

A 10/20/30 year wait to see the benefits of Brexit - all whilst we tackle the shit storm (size of shit storm to be determined) - will wreck my family.

[Hesta54]

MeganBacon what makes them any more believable now ?, Carney will not be sacked if his predictions prove to be way out like most of his other predictions, the boy cries wolf too many times to be taken seriously,

[Hesta54]

Notonthestairs You don’t know for definite what will happen, if supplies fail to get through, I would be angry at the EU willing trying to hurt your family, there is many things they can do to keep medical supplies flowing freely, never seems to be a problem in a humanitarian crisis, so I would presume that they are doing it on purpose

[jasjas1973]

Look at what the head of the Food and drink federation say, the haulage association, the CBI
I an fed up with the country being run for the benefit of Big Business

uh? you do know the Road haulage association, CBI and the Food and Drink federation are not employers and represent both big and small businesses?
These SME's are the back bone of the UK, pay billions in corporation tax, business rates, employ millions!

Destroying business will make not make your life better or the UK more prosperous.
The UK can choose to spend its own (now lower) tax take on what it likes, we choose tax cuts and lower public services, this will not change post brexit, you ve been mugged off lol!

[bellinisurge]

"Because if your backers were all lower working class ordinary people I’d bow to your arguments. But they’re not.
They have their own selfish agendas."
[Waves to @surferjet ]
I backed Remain. Doesn't my opinion count? I fit your category.

[Daddybegood]

Robert Mercer who bankrolled Leave is a billionaire
Crispin Odey (leave backer) made £300m shorting £ when referendum result was announced
John Redwood advised clients to move funds out of UK
Farage got German passports for his family and wants a deal to pay for his fully paid up EU pension
Lawson took French citizenship
Aaron Banks worth £60m+ (May be funded by Putin ...another billionaire)
Do you really think JRM, IDS, Boris dePfeffel, etc give a tiny shit about those dinner ladies?
But if they can collapse the economy they can rebuild in their own far right ideology (gone is the NHS) from an unregulated cheap base and keep their precious offshore tax havens. The dinner ladies and carpenters will suffer horrendously for the apparent benefit of having a blue passport (which we could have had anyway)

[MeganBacon]

I think anyone who chooses to dismiss the opinion of the bof e should first of all read the assumptions (which are summarised in a page or so and very easy to read) to decide for themselves how realistic they are. No one can know for sure what will happen and I’m sure Carney doesn’t claim to either.

[surferjet]

None of them give a tiny shit about dinner ladies, leave or remainers. All politicians are out for themselves, I know that. But you bang on about evil leave billionaires whilst portraying remainers as Mother Teresa.
The likes of Gina Miller couldn’t give a flying fuck about you, so why you give them hero status god only knows.
The JMR’s of this world couldn’t give a fuck about you either, but the referendum was won by leave so leave it is.

[surferjet]

JRM’s even!

[SusanWalker]

I have a disabled child too Notonthestairs. I live solely on benefits in a poor area. I am getting heartily sick of being told by people, most of whom are better off than me (not that that's difficult), that some short term pain will be worth it to achieve something intangible and indefinable.

Short term pain will devastate me and mine. I am under no illusions that come an economic downturn the things to be cut will be benefits, extra help for my child in school, my sons healthcare services.

If you want brexit for whatever reason then fine. But don't go telling me that you're doing it in my name, to benefit me when it's obvious that families like mine are the collateral damage you are prepared to sustain. Just fucking dont.

[Hesta54]

MeganBacon As you say yourself, no one knows what will happen, so why believe the Boe, that missed the financial crisis and cost all of us many thousands of pounds, ( a lost decade) and basically the man has got so many future predictions wrong, his credibility is zero, this man in his time has only moved interest rates 3 times and to slow doing that. ( nice work if you can get it) inflation reports out, growth predictions out, jobless figures out, etc etc , bless him, I suppose he could be right one day

[MarshaBradyo]

He wasn’t making a prediction

[MeganBacon]

I think though that none of us want to leap blindly into an unknown future so we should be glad that a reputable neutral body of professionals has tried to inform us of what may happen. Who would you prefer to believe? If you read the report you would see that it is just the result of a set of assumptions any one of which may be wrong but that doesn’t mean it has no value. For instance it does not include any actions by government to soften the blow.

[lonelyplanetmum]

The R4 interview with Carney is very clear. He explained calmly in response to the usual chippy questions about how it's his job to prepare the BoE ( as best he can) based on a range of scenarios and that it's for Parliament to choose the final path.

As far as trust in politicians is concerned, iirc Sufer has previously declared some trust in Farage. Did people trust Farage? If so why?

[Hesta54]

MarshaBradyo No, he called them future guidance

[Notonthestairs]

SusanWalker I agree with everything that you have written. Its shite.

For all the chat about Mark Carney/JRM/Gina Miller etc - I dont care, I really dont. You are playing the man not the ball.

All I care about is trying to keep my family on track and safe. And facing upteen years of further austerity will only decrease the services which we rely upon.

And I have read the BoE Executive Summary - the first sentence reads "The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) aims to ensure the UK financial system is resilient to, and prepared for, the
wide range of possible risks it could face — so that the system can serve UK households and businesses in bad
times as well as good."
It is not a prediction.

[jasjas1973]

if supplies fail to get through, I would be angry at the EU willing trying to hurt your family, there is many things they can do to keep medical supplies flowing freely

It will not be the EU's fault, it will be yours, you ignored the experts on World trade, thought you knew better and were wrong.

Medicines, like car parts cross the border many times before we get the finished article, no one country makes everything needed, then there are the new drugs we have previously been world leaders in discovering......

We cannot have frictionless trade, yet fully control our borders, once we leave the EU.