Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

[mummmy2017]

In 2016 he was completely wrong.
They are guessing...
So you admit it could be wrong, that the UK could prosper?

[Daddybegood]

I understand that you don't want to have a conversation on the tangible risks of brexiting surfer, as to acknowledge them completely undermines the no deal brexit argument or is frankly insane. But putting knitting needles up our nostrils and repeating 'wibble' unfortunately won't take away the risks that you are happy for others to take

[Bearbehind]

Leaving the EU will have long term benefits for the UK.

Can you list any that a) required us to leave the EU to achieve and b) are more substantial than soundbites.

[Peregrina]

We all know there will be disruption / difficulties for a few years, untangling ourselves from 45 years of complex red tape was never going to be easy, we don’t need Mark Carney to tell us that, I can tell you that!

You can tell us that now, after two and a half years. Remainers told you that at the time, but the Leaver narrative was 'Project Fear', 'they need us more than we need them', 'easiest deals in history', ' all sorted in an afternoon'.

[Bearbehind]

So you admit it could be wrong, that the UK could prosper?

Have you seen a single report or analysis that suggests the UK will prosper mummmy?

Literally no one believes it to be true, even if they support leaving.

You’ve voted to make yourself poorer.

Sadly for you it sounds like you can’t afford that whereas your comrades like JRM can.

[Daddybegood]

Mummy. In 2016 just after the vote, the BofE halved interest rates from 0.5 to 0.25% and massively expanded QE to keep the economy afloat. The government also abandoned it's fiscal discipline and its policy of reducing the debt. By 2020 we will now have close to £2trillion in debt ...in 2007 it was 450billion. Also the economy is now approximately 2% smaller than it would have been had Farage not been around, that's approximately 50 billion lost.
So a recession was avoided as we borrowed more but we are undoubtedly a smaller economy and future generations have to pay the debt back....and when (if) we do leave these problems will get a lot worse

[jasjas1973]

There are now experts saying the world is going to have a mass downward trend, so if you take this into account how much is due too this and how much Brexit?

Thats an insightful question! there is going to be no control group that we can look back and measure.
The world is entering nationalistic and protectionist times, Trump and China in particular, Russian expansionism,esp climate change - Leaving the Worlds largest trading block now, might not be considered wise? we could easily find ourselves at the whim of world powers we ve zero control over.

One thing in the Gov stats yesterday, even under the most optimistic scenario, all the FTAs we could possibly get in the next 15years add only 0.7% to GDP, realistically, we are hardly likely to get all these.

So, yes we should listen to a range of expert opinions, its like a weather forecast, they may get the timing slightly wrong or the amount but if 5 forecasters say it will rain tomo, it is stupid not to pack a Mack! or stay inside! lol!!!

[purits]

Look at what the head of the Food and drink federation day, the haulage association, the CBI.
I an fed up with the country being run for the benefit of Big Business. They would love it if we shut up and let them get on with making their money in a world created to suit them.
I want my Government to be answerable to me. Not 500m other europeans. Not global corporations. I want our Government to put the well-being of our country at the top of their priority list.

[surferjet]

Exactly - remainers are the slaves of big money making corporations.

Total mugs.

[Bearbehind]

I want my Government to be answerable to me. Not 500m other europeans.

Do you honestly think leaving the EU is going to make the slightest difference?

The government always should have been answerable to the people of the UK.

The problem is the 2 main parties are as bad as each other so there’s no ‘answering’ to be done.

Surely this whole Brexit process has shown you that politicians put themselves first, their party second and to hell with the consequences for everyone else.

You really have been duped if you seriously think leaving the EU is going to make that change.

[Peregrina]

I want our Government to put the well-being of our country at the top of their priority list.

I was always told 'I want gets nothing'.
There is nothing stopping our Government putting the needs of its own citizens first. The problem is that people are a happy to elect politicians who are only interested in what Big Business wants. Aided and abetted by a predominantly right wing press.

[LillianGish]

One thing you can be sure of is that some people will be in a position to profit from a fall in the pound and may actually be banking on that. Why else do you think JRM is moving his investment fund to Ireland? With that knowledge how can you possibly trust what he is telling you?

[LillianGish]

Brexiteers have voted to make themselves poorer and him richer.

[lonelyplanetmum]

So you admit it could be wrong, that the UK could prosper?

There are no serious analyses available suggesting we will prosper. But if you like I’ll admit there’s a teeny tiny chance that the vast majority of economists and financial specialists are all wrong.

The only infinitesimally small way I think it could work is if JRM and his cronies were given a free rein.

They would try and achieve the free market economy Singapore type model. That would mean low corporate taxes, exploiting any workers available, disaster capitalism, suppressed wages, abolition of employment law protections, tax haven for the wealthy, perhaps some nice Middle Eastern business deals like the deals May was courting in Saudi thrown in.

But it’s a slim chance- Singapore is small and only managed it as a competitive financial centre for its neighbours,and as a leading oil trading hub in its continent-Asia.

Also the price Singapore paid was to be ranked 149 out of 157 in its commitment to Reducing Inequality In 2018, placing it among the bottom ten of the countries in the world for the commitment to closing the gap between rich and poor. Is that really what we want to try? Is this putting the well being of our country first.

There I’ve admitted it- an illogical unsubstantiated high odds million to one chance of prosperity for all by delivering on Fox, JRM and Boris's dream.

Now will some Leavers admit there’s a chance that retaining EU membership for now could be better for everyone?

[ToastedSandwichObsession]

Surfer the greater good? Good for who? Certainly not myself and my family.

[LillianGish]

Good for JRM.

[ToastedSandwichObsession]

It's like Surfer is caught up in the Hot Fuzz film with their greater goods. I fail to understand the logic. Surfer you area more mature person yes? So by the time this debacle is all smoothed over andwe have this Utopia, you'll be long gone and six feet under. It makes no sense at all. It does however demonstrate who selfish you are.

[ToastedSandwichObsession]

How not who 🙄

[SusanWalker]

Can I just point out that this wasn't a forecast but rather an analysis of what could happen in the absolute worst case scenario. This was so they could check that the banking system would cope. He is merely doing his job because the last thing the country would need would be a banking collapse.

If course if you'd rather he just decided to wing it.......

[mostdays]

I'm more likely to trust him than the people who said:

• it would be the easiest thing in human history to strike a trade deal with the EU

-that no-one is talking about threatening our place in the single market
-that "Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market,"
-that we send the EU £350m a week and that post Brexit this would go to the NHS instead
-that "Within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others.”
-"Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK", pre referendum, only to change that to "It was leave or remain . The single market is part of the EU - we voted to leave" post referendum

[MarshaBradyo]

If you can find the R4 interview with him it is very clear that it is just a scenario

Much better to listen to that than read the headlines about it

[BorisBogtrotter]

"I want my Government to be answerable to me. Not 500m other europeans. Not global corporations. I want our Government to put the well-being of our country at the top of their priority list."

Then you better be hoping that it comes out of NATO, the ECHR, WTO and all other organisations. That it doesn't sign any trade deals, that it doesn't do any international cooperation at all.

Your government was never answerable to 500m Europeans, our own government had control over Tax, Spending, Education, Health, infrastructure and 99% of all other things that governments do.

Only idiots believe otherwise.

[BorisBogtrotter]

"Exactly - remainers are the slaves of big money making corporations. "

Go look at who paid for the leave campaign.

Muppet.

[Hesta54]

Bearbehind The experts ( so called ) were wrong last time , the actual wording was in the event of a leave vote there will be an IMMEDIATE, not in 3 years or after we have left, downturn high unemployment, high interest rates, house price crash, etc etc, None of it has even been remotely true, why believe them now, I would love to see their workings out, how they arrive at these figures,
If everyday I said it’s going to snow tomorrow, one day I would be right does that make me an expert, the same experts that missed the last big financial crisis untill it smacked them in the face.

[DarlingNikita]

We all know there will be disruption / difficulties for a few years, untangling ourselves from 45 years of complex red tape was never going to be easy, we don’t need Mark Carney to tell us that, I can tell you that!

It's a pity none of the Leave campaign told us that in advance. And that, in fact, people like DD and Gove went round boasting about how easy all our shiny new trade deals were going to be.