Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

[Talkinpeece]

Hesta
Read what the Advocate said.
If A50 is rescinded, it cannot be re-invoked any time soon

[1tisILeClerc]

JasJas
I like your optimism, but the UK has a track record of 40 years of being less than enthusiastic about the 'EU project' and it may come as a shock that the EU has noticed.
This is of course tragic for the millions of EU in UK and vice versa, and all the companies and institutions that have integrated and worked so well as equal partners over many years, who have been totally shafted by the shits in Westminster.
The fact that the UK gov is prepared to use EU immigrants/emigrants as pawns in this shitshow is an indication of how low they will stoop.
How much compensation is the UK going to pay for the massive disruption to Airbus, Nissan, BMW and the finance industry who have been put in limbo for 3 years and have suffered massive losses?
Will the UK gov pay compensation to the UK small businesses that have closed down because of various issues created by Brexit and their mishandling. Bear in mind, all compensation comes out of taxpayer's pockets.
You expect compensation if you slip on a wet floor in a supermarket or trip on an uneven flagstone in the high street.

[jasjas1973]

That's a great analogy!

[Hesta54]

All I can say the ECJ has given Parliament a open goal, cm from the goal line in the last few minutes of the game, if they mess this up it’s because they do deliberately ( want to leave) or they really are incompetent, for members of the Parliament that want to remain, the games there to win

[Yaralie]

Fortunately the ECJ has now confirmed that we can unilaterly rescind Article 50 at any time before we leave, and if we do we would remain members on our existing advantageous terms - the best deal of the lot!

[jasjas1973]

Yes i can see understand that view but in a couple of years time, with a new government in place? which would have to happen in the highly unlikely event of a revoke.
We'd be back in Galileo, talking about the issues facing Europe.

The rhetoric would change on both sides and the UK would be the prodigal son returned :) and of course, it is great pr for the EU to say to other eurosceptic countries that they are better off in than out.

[1tisILeClerc]

Yes A50 was badly written although a 2 year timeframe is possibly too long, maybe it should be 1 year or even less to produce a working Withdrawal agreement. Don't forget, all the legislation with the EU is written up so early drafts of a WA could be worked on years in advance, even several versions that could then be reshaped as necessary. The fact that the UK had NO plan at the beginning, then spent over 2 years deliberately writing a plan that is impossible to carry out, partly due to legislation the UK wrote in the first place is so far beyond embarrassing.The process of actually separating is probably around 10 years but the WA is basically the roadmap not the final resolution.

[1tisILeClerc]

Wheter the UK leaves or remains, what is more significant is that it has badly shattered the trust between The EU countries and the UK.
EU companies that would have been happy to employ and work with UK companies will now do this at arms length as the UK, certainly at political level cannot be trusted.
If you saw your partner in a more than friendly hug at a party, you would forever wonder and be suspicious.
The damage to the UK is already done, The Tories in particular have behaved abominably and egged on by the gutter press and it remains to be seen how industry will respond on the day the UK actually leaves.
The UK is now seriously 'damaged goods'.

[jasjas1973]

@Hesta54 Yes i agree, art50 is badly written and far too short a time scale for a large economy and with the NI issues to leave the EU.

At the time of the referendum, i thought about 10 years would be a reasonable frame to extract our integrated economy from the EU.

Another reason to stay and work for change from within, we ve allies such as Poland, Denmark, Sweden even Germany and France want reform.

[bellinisurge]

@Hesta54 - struggling to think of any other EU country which has a situation similar to NI - perhaps Spain and the Basque region?.
If we didn't have the backstop issue- and we HAVE TO address NI because of GFA - we would have had a Withdrawal Agreement by now.
Rewriting A50 doesn't make NI or similar issues go away.

[Hesta54]

pointythings The ECJ has said we can unilaterally revoke A50, I haven’t read that you can’t later activate it again, we have voted to leave, A50 was written in a poor way, countries should know there is a set process for leaving and the terms and length of time you leave in, I think going forward it will have to be rewritten

[pointythings]

The UK will not be allowed to revoke on those terms, Hesta. Revocation would have to be in good faith, not as another way to get a few more years of messing 27 other countries about.

[Hesta54]

Talkinpeece Yes, As long as it means a pause not a cancellation, to allow for time for Parliament to get real about the situation and come up with a agreed way forward which is genuinely the best for the people of this country not for their own personal careers,

[Talkinpeece]

@Hesta54
Will you be happy if the politicians vote to revoke A50 and remain in the EU?

[Jason118]

Because leave isn't defined at all!

[Moussemoose]

But David Cameron did not have the power to make that promise. He lied to you. Another lie you have believed.

One Parliament can not be bound by the decision of a previous parliament.

I do believe I have mentioned that before.

[mummmy2017]

Leave means leave, how can you say it was not spelt out by this clip?

[Peregrina]

They have had nearly 3 years and they still have no clue.

yes, Grease -Smug was wittering on yesterday or the day before about why he didn't like May's plan, itemising each point. There wasn't a word about what he would do instead.

It put me in mind of that scene in the Secret Garden where Mary is saying she doesn't like this, she doesn't like that, and Martha the servant girl asks 'How do you like yourself?'

[Peregrina]

Cameron did spring to my mind, but I didn't want to be vulgar!

[1tisILeClerc]

The 'Yellow Jackets' in France started their protest over fuel price hikes which hit the rural economy particularly badly but now they have produced a 'manifesto' with 25 demands.
With all the 'advisors' available to the government why did they fail to jot down a few ideas to define what 'Leave' might mean. They have had nearly 3 years and they still have no clue.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Lonely, Why does that middle picture remind me of Tony Blair?

Well at least Hameron didn't spring to mind!

[Peregrina]

I missed the part about having to submit a detailed plan, ( was that on the back )

Funnily enough, Leave posters on these threads have spent two and a half years telling us what 17 million people voted for, but without there having being a PTO and options listed, no one actually knows. So it's good to see at least one Leaver acknowledge this.

[pointythings]

The number of UK students going to the EU has been rising. And along with the about 14,000 young people a year that Leavers have shafted, there are also the British nationals who will now not be considered for jobs with international corporations, because it will be harder for them to travel through the EU - and business doesn't want that hassle.

So what opportunities do you think will arise for UK nationals after we 'control' immigration (which the UK were already doing)?

[1tisILeClerc]

Lonely, Why does that middle picture remind me of Tony Blair?