Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

My point was that while we are part of the UK, the government can't legally make it harder for EU citizens to claim benefits than for UK citizens,

Wrong! Have a look at this for how the UK government has made it "harder for EU citizens to claim benefits" over the years since 2004

http://www.cpag.org.uk/content/right-reside-pending-court-cases

which has led to changes that are negative for both EU and British citizens (for eg Britons returning from abroad not being able to claim anything for 3 months

It's always been the case that Brits coming back from living abroad could not claim certain benefits until they'd establish "habitual residence". For EU citizens, they need to establish "right to reside" as well as "habitual residence".
There is no correlation between the government's attempts to limit EU citizens getting means tested benefits and Brits not getting benefits for the first three months.

The reality is that all serious studies show that EU immigrants bring in more than they take out in benefits, NHS use etc. Thinking EU immigrants drain on benefits is a myth. It's the U.K. born who dominate the benefits system.

The Chart I posted previously below shows the figures on overall benefit.

There were numerous studies long before the referendum including one from the LSE showing this. Also government briefing notes and statistics from the ONS.

What fascinates me is that the government know the benefits and needs for immigration. The know the contribution to the exchequer compared to any costs.

Certain members of Jo Public might read the Daily Mail and falsely conclude EU immigrants are a drain, rather than researching the proof of the benefits they bring.Fair enough I suppose ... but why do the government pretend that the dynamic is that simple.

Many in the government know the facts and figures and still go along with it. Why???

Is it simply borne of that fear of the past UKIP vote? So they have to go along with this myth to secure the anti foreign vote?

Even if it wasn't a myth and immigrants were habitually claiming benefits instead of working, why is relinquishing membership of the EU the only way to solve it? Why stick our fingers up at unrestricted access to a market on our doorstep worth $18.8 trillion of 500 million consumers? It just doesn't make sense.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-immigration-has-no-negative-impact-on-british-wages-jobs-or-public-services-research-finds-a7026796.html

"The facts bear out this thesis. Only 0.2% of EU immigrants – that’s around 5,000 people in total – claim unemployment benefit without ever having worked in the UK. Many of these probably aren’t even welfare tourists per se, as they could have come here with the hope of finding a job and not succeeded. EU immigrants aren’t coming to the UK for child benefit or tax credits either. Only 2.1% and 1% claim child benefit or tax credits respectively within a year of arriving here. By comparison, one-fifth of the British working-age population claim these benefits."

So it's 2.1% of EU migrants. 20% for U.K. born.

The gov have the facts and figures so why do they allow the myth to continue? Back in 2014 the govt knew the gap between public perception and the reality.

Yet four years later people still believe that the expenditure on benefits justifies a far far greater financial sacrifice.

(pathetic whine voice) But it FEELZ like all of them are taking all our money and clogging up the NHS.

Lonlelyplantmum let’s have a bit of perspective, why aren’t those 5000 going home (. 3 month rule ) the odds are a bit a miss as there are far more working age U.K. people in the country compared to E.U. citizens, most of them and their parents and grandparents would have contributed to the tax systems and infrastructure over many decades,
I see those figures are from 2010 as well, we had another 2.4 m in since then, wait about when they all get older and suffer with the same health problems as native people ?

Hesta54
wait about when they all get older and suffer with the same health problems as native people

That would imply that they would have stayed AND CONTRIBUTED with their taxes for DECADES! I've spent my entire working life so far in this country. I bloody well expect to have access to the same health and care services as natives when I'm old and grey after I've slaved away for British employers for 40+ years.
I've naturalised in great part to avoid facing such horrible rhetoric such as yours in my old age.

Quietrebel Quite so, I just get fed up when people talk about the older people that have work here all their life, parents and grandparents before them are now a strain on the U.K. it’s very disingenuous

"we had another 2.4 m in since then, wait about when they all get older and suffer with the same health problems as native people ?"

Some one is getting confused between gross and net immigration.

And you complain that people think leavers are thick.

Hesta54
I am British and have been paying tax and NI for over 40 years but now as I have moved to the EU there is a chance that the UK gov will cancel my pension allowance and I have already lost access to the NHS.
Forgive me for not feeling at all sympathetic to your wish to expel immigrants.

Immigrants aren't going anywhere either.

So your vote was for your fantasy not what will occur.

I just get fed up when people talk about the older people that have work here all their life, parents and grandparents before them are now a strain on the U.K. it’s very disingenuous

Well, the very people we need to work in our care homes and hospitals, are now heading back home, pissed off with being told they are "a strain on the U.K"

Of course you'd say next year/some time never we'll have a fairer immigration policy, what do they do in the meantime?

BorisBogtrotter Average 300,000 extra per year ( approx )

BorisBogtrotter Don’t what them to go, just want controlled job based visa system

1tisILeClerc That’s not true

Hesta
What I wrote is perfectly true, your attempt to refute it is a different topic altogether.

1tisILeClerc Sorry wrong person

jasjas1973 That’s not true

Hesta I think you would be greatly helped if you don't use opinion pieces to argue your point. Sources that are factual and usually created by experts and academics are usually a safe bet if you want to check real facts on any situation. Kings College

It would also help if you applied critical thinking and questioned the vested interest/bias of a source named Brexit central.

BorisBogtrotter Average 300,000 extra per year ( approx ),

Yet total net migration of all immigrants has been under 300,000 in every single year apart from 2015.

Facts eh Hesta?

Hesta,
Brexit Central is a leave organisation, run by key hardcore leavers, who do not fear a no deal - because they are wealthy and can easily ride out any storm or go back to Germany!

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7783

We are so short of nurses that even modest drop in numbers can have dramatic affects.

Heats

Several have attempted to show on here the net benefit of migration.

However let's suppose you are right, let's say you are correct to be concerned about a very small number of people (5,000) born elsewhere who you think shouldn't be here and have claimed unemployment benefit.

Why is that so important that it's worth sacrificing our lucrative trading arrangements for? Why give up on unrestricted access to a market on our doorstep worth $18.8 trillion comprised of 500 million consumers?

Sorry Hesta not Heats.

lonelyplanetmum Why are we never going to trade with European countries after Brexit or after we agree a deal with the E.U.
Why does it have to be one way or the other, why can’t we have common ground , job based visa system, seems to work well in other countries