Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

[mummmy2017]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

Starmer and Grieve are both lawyers.
I think it was the "document disclosure" angle
and expecting MPs to vote on the most important thing for a generation
WITHOUT the relevant information - when they knew it existed

It just seems to me, that yet again TM isn’t being held accountable for her actions and letting the shit role down hill, I can’t help but feel that he was stitched up? She instructed he to try and withhold the info, now that’s failed it’s his neck on the line?

The Government didn't oppose the humble address, so they had to do what Parliament instructed them to do, poor form by them to let it get this far.
This was inevitable and they should have released the legal advice as instructed by parliament to do so.

Cox only has himself to blame, it was inevitable they'd be forced to do so.

after 3 months non supporting eu citizens should be deported, we dont do that.

No evidence that any EU country really does this. (It would be a nonsense anyway in the Schengen zone.)

Now imagine the court costs involved in doing this, the cost of immigration detention, the cost of transporting people back across the border, and consider how many years of benefits that would cover. Not to mention the cost of fighting the ECJ cases that would follow. I see no evidence that the UK can or should do this.

As for the tiny amount of NHS resources consumed by EU residents, I doubt you would ever get back more than you spent chasing the money. The UK system isn't set up like that (and actually, in some ways it is all the more efficient for it; a proportion of the 8% of my salary that I pay for my French medical insurance goes towards a bureaucracy devoted to chasing money round the system).

Finally, the idea that benefits in EU countries are always contributory is another remainer unicorn. Can't criticise leavers for chasing unicorns if we aren't prepared to acknowledge that the remain side has also been dishonest/willfully disinformed.

Are you saying wealthier EU countries don't operate contributory benefit systems?

mistigri
Finally, the idea that benefits in EU countries are always contributory is another remainer unicorn.
Which EU countries operate non contributory systems ?

Well, I'm not an expert on all the benefit systems in the EU, but the Dutch one certainly is contributory. There isn't a situation where you get nothing, but after the contributions-based phase, which is quite generous, it gets pretty minimal.

A lot of EU systems are partly contributory (eg unemployment insurance) and partly not, eg family and child benefits, housing benefit and to a very large extent medical benefits.

This is even true in the UK, albeit to a lesser extent than in some EU states, eg contributions-based JSA.

There are far too many remainers repeating falsehoods they have read elsewhere without checking - and then critising leavers for doing the same thing.

it gets pretty minimal.

And how would you describe the benefits available under UC?

In many countries the minimum benefits available to non-contributing single people are minimal - but this is true in the UK too (especially for young claimants). In most countries, basic income or unemployment benefit is topped up with various other benefits for people with dependents. For your average French family, non-contributory benefits make up by far the greatest part of the benefits they receive. Most won't receive any "contributory" benefits.

(Note that I'm using "contributory" to mean that benefit amounts are directly linked to prior contributions; all working people contribute though taxes and social insurance.)

I would describe UC as punitively miserly. But I have a close friend in Holland who has been through the benefits mill multiple times so have seen it in action. She was never without housing or food and compared to what a single person would get in the UK it was far better.

And the contributions based phase is quite good - roughly a month for each full year at 70% of last salary. Even at NMW that is better than UK rates.

Which EU countries operate non contributory systems ?

@Talkinpeece sorry didn't see this earlier.

As I said in response to pointy, the French system is mostly non-contributory and plainly this is the case in the Netherlands too based on what pointy posted below. AFAIK in France only unemployment and pension benefits are "contributory" in the sense that they are explicitly related to prior contributions; they are generous but (for unemployment benefit) time-limited.

Other benefits, administered by the CAF (family benefits) and the CPAM (healthcare and sickness benefits) are mostly non-contributory in the sense that everyone can claim them regardless of prior contributions as long as they meet the criteria to have a social security number.

It really isn't dissimilar to the UK in this sense - I believe that elements of JSA are or were contributions related, and pensions too. Healthcare works differently of course, but these days the overall result in terms of treatment often being "free" at the point of delivery is not really that different to the NHS (except the waiting lists are shorter and you can book a GP appointment if you need one).

So anyway, to sum up ... of course EU countries do things differently, it'd be odd if they didn't. But a lot of the "we should do it like (insert country of choice here)" arguments made by remainers are not very well informed. In fact they ressemble the leave arguments made in the run up to the ref on here ("let's be like Norway ... er no I meant Switzerland ... maybe Iceland ... scrub that, make it Albania") ie based on hearsay and wishful thinking.

The argument that remainers should be making isn't that we could and should make it harder for EU citizens to claim benefits - because the UK govt already tried that and in the process also made life even more shit for UK citizens too - but that EU citizens make a positive financial, moral and cultural contribution to our country, which would be poorer without them.

My DH is seeing the first taste of these forecasts in his work in the service sector. Projects are being cancelled, budgets are being cut. It's a dry spell like no other. Businesses will go under - I hope not his.

Travel seems to be suffering. I was on a BA flight out of Heathrow this morning to a major European business and tourist destination, there were only about 20 people on board. Back of the plane was empty. There was also an empty business class seat next to me on a long-haul flight last Saturday, on a route that is always fully booked in business class. (My ticket was also unusually cheap). Brexit impact finally being felt?

The argument that remainers should be making isn't that we could and should make it harder for EU citizens to claim benefits - because the UK govt already tried that and in the process also made life even more shit for UK citizens too -

Nope that's completely wrong. Can't say what I do for a living because I would risk outing myself as it's a niche sector and I've already stated my dual nationality. However, trust me when I say that the benefits cuts - benefit cap, bedroom tax, 2-child policy, Universal Credit, and many others which are too technical to discuss on this forum - have NOTHING to do with the government's attempt to stop EU citizens from claiming benefits. The welfare reforms were the product of Ian Duncan-Smith's deranged ideas, supported by Osborne and Cameron and carried on by TM's government.
Welfare benefits paid to EU citizens have been restricted for far longer through the Right to Reside which limits who can receive means tested benefits.

Mistigri More like the decade of no/low wage rises and growing costs, high house prices and rent etc , have left less free spending money for ordinary people

@Hesta54 and plenty of ordinary people were not suckered into creating an even more disaster capitalist friendly environment for JRM and his pals . Because they voted Remain. That's ordinary people. Not some stereotype middle class with children on gap yah.

I am quite certain that even if a hard Brexit happened, Sixtus Rees-Mogg would still be able to go on his gap yah. It would by Ryan from Sunderland and Kayleigh from Cornwall, who would be stymied.

I would imagine that Ryan and Kayleigh or their parents would be hard press to fund a gap year

I would imagine that Ryan and Kayleigh or their parents would be hard press to fund a gap year

But wasn't Brexit supposed to be bringing untold benefits to us all? Which would have meant that Ryan and Kayleigh would have the same benefits as Sixtus.

Peregrina We haven’t left yet

And Sixtus isn't yet of an age to do a gap year. But whatever happens, Daddy will make sure that the way is smoothed for him. The same Daddy who wants a hard Brexit but has moved his funds to Ireland.

{Peregrina We haven’t left yet}
This is true, however I haven't noticed ANY plans for the UK reinvigorating it's industries, or anything except BoJo wanting to build a bridge from Scotland to NI and the predictions by many experts who say the economy will fall between about 2 and 10 percent.
Not quite my definition of sunny uplands, unicorns and prosperity.
Surely if leaving is going to be so great there would be money being poured into the NHS NOW (or for the last 2 years ) and regeneration of the Northern cities and infrastructure would be underway, or at least the plans proudly trumpeted showing the direction of the brave new UK.
What we have is a continuation of the infighting and lying going on at all levels of government.

NOTHING to do with the government's attempt to stop EU citizens from claiming benefits

The UK welfare system has got worse in numerous ways, some of which have nothing to do with making things harder for EU citizens, so I'm actually not sure what your point is.

My point was that while we are part of the UK, the government can't legally make it harder for EU citizens to claim benefits than for UK citizens, which has led to changes that are negative for both EU and British citizens (for eg Britons returning from abroad not being able to claim anything for 3 months).

More like the decade of no/low wage rises and growing costs, high house prices and rent etc , have left less free spending money for ordinary people

I doubt that has anything to do with empty seats on flights serving what are primarily business routes at this time of year.