Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Long time lurker but feeling the first, tiny flicker of hope in a long time.
Let Operation Stop Brexshit commence!

I hope you're right talkingpeece

At this stage, I'm just happy that no deal has been made a bit more difficult.

Don't get me wrong, I would love brexit to be cancelled, but I don't think there is a magic wand that can make it all go away.... And well, it's always the hope that kills you, isn't it?

Katharine Newton @katharinewton
my colleague has just listed a multi-day hearing in the Croydon Employment Tribunal for 2021 and no, I have not mistyped....it is listed for 2021 #accesstojustice #ukemplaw

Katharine Newton @katharinewton
Update: Manchester Employment Tribunal is now also listing 10 day hearings in 2021.....are the 54 Employment Judges being appointed nationally in the New Year really going to make a noticeable improvement to these sorts of waiting times?

Justice in the UK....

I've been keeping an eye on my local community FB page which is normally a hotbed of Brexiteer drivel. It's very quiet. Maybe they are waiting to see what the posh boys say.

Cripes, I go away for a Christmas do and all this happens.

May has always held secretive meetings:
Notorious for this as Home Sec, then as PM with Nick Timothy pulling her strings

I hope the civil servants apparently present at these meetings were only real ones like Robbins, not SPADs

Unless the UK drops red lines and changes its final aim to say Norway++,
the EU won't let May amend this WA in more than cosmetic ways,
or possibly they'll make a "concession" that Barnier planned in when drafting the WA

The NI backstop is none of these and is not amendable unless the RoI agrees (which it won't)

So, May can't promise MPs and the DUP a vote before the NI backstop is activated, because then it wouldn't be a backstop.
If she has been promising that, then either she's lying to them, she's confused, or she plans to break the terms of the WA

Ah Clash don’t say that!
Where there’s hope there’s life

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3442900-Westministenders-Plan-B-on-the-back-of-a-Contempt-Envelope?watched=1

New thread early, purely because it makes sense to stick all today's developments there, so they aren't lost.

@red Afaik, MPs later being able to pass an amendment telling the govt what to do would be law and legally binding on the govt,
whereas passing a motion 💩 would be smelly and embarassing, but the govt can hold its nose and do what it wants.

Grieve is also saying that the wins today don't mean Parliament will definitely be able to stop a No Deal Brexit,
but rather that they have blocked off one route there

So, Grieve has corrected his previous funky chicken run

imo, all this today means that our position has significantly improved and there is reason for hope, but we are certainly not out of the danger gone on No Deal

I'd normally expect a PM going through half of this to have already stepped down, or been slammed down by the Men in Grey
However, these are unprecedented circumstances, so I expect her to continue as long as she can

What happens next:

. Will the ECJ take the same position on unlateral revocation as the AG ?
. Will the govt publish the legal advice in condensed version / full version / refuse and dare the HoC to do anything ?
. Will May postpone / cancel the vote on the WA ?
. If it's held, by how much will she lose ?
. Will Labour force a No Confidence Vote ? < I expect Corbyn to try >
. and if so, will the DUP support them ? < imo, not unless the WA passes >
. Will the ERG finally count up to 48 and force a No Confidence vote in May's party leadership ?

Stewart Jackson @BrexitStewart
Tonight we've seen a long planned coup by the Establishment well represented in Parliament to cheat the voters out of the Brexit they voted for-the Tory Whips, Grieve, Letwin, Boles, Kinnock, Freeman et al have never intended to honour the decison in June 2016. They won't succeed

Practical considerations and reality of law = long planned coup.

I am loving the idea that its been planned. I'd love to met those evil geniuses.

My job is Brexit related so I can’t comment publicly (I don’t like namechanging. It seems so dishonest).
That’s why I’ve only ever lurked but it’s been very hard not to join in on occasion.

The possibility of a PV has been given a significant boost by events in the house today. PV holds up the posiibity of a reversal where before there was none.

I am thrilled at this little chink opening up (and may have partaken of strong drink )

A little bit of joy needed to bubble up and I thought this might be the place.

Is there a pun somewhere about Dominic and grievances?

Those evil procedural plotters could have swung their sinister apparatus into action a bit earlier and saved us from two years of flaunting our political ineptitude on an international stage.

Not to mention the shameful neglect of the day to day workings of government.

I’ll stop now before I veer into unsafe territory.
Ladies

No one cares though apart from the anoraks. That is the problem.

Get on with it is the mantra from many who for many reasons are not really involved in the debate.

I think that is what Parliament is relying on. In fairness who looks at Parliament live TV? Well the debates usually happen when we are at work anyway.

Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
The Boris Paradox: Hated by the Elite, Loved by Voters

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries
If Conservative MPs with small majorities want to keep their seats as the next (now, almost inevitable) GE, they know what to do.

Well a GE is inevitable seeing as we live in a democracy, however Nadine appears to be suggesting here that the collaspe of the current government is imminent.

And so does Tim

Mark Wallace @wallaceme
Away from Westminster, Tory candidate selections continue. Tonight it’s Darlington - the finalists are:
- Mark Fletcher (fought Stockton N in 2017)
- @PaulinDarlo (Durham County Cllr)
- Peter Gibson (fought Redcar in 2017).
Darlington currently has a Labour majority of 3,280.

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tim Montgomerie Retweeted Mark Wallace
Getting ready...

That's intriguing, sleight
Don't worry, we'll stay mum, 🤫 even those of us who aren't mothers

Those evil procedural plotters could have swung their sinister apparatus into action a bit earlier and saved us from two years of flaunting our political ineptitude on an international stage.

Unless that was the entire point of this exercise ? With Farage and his rather dim band of merry men being played like a finely tuned instrument ?

Because from where I'm typing, if you were to suggest that this entire "Brepisode" was a plan to reduce the UKs world standing and gently remove us from the sphere of world influence, then it's job done.

Who knows, maybe it's the plot of a few people who got fed up of UK having to "intervene" around the world all the time.

Gorgeously apocalyptic photo on the BBC website of the Houses of Parliament this morning!

Truly “black over Bill’s mother’s”!

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Clearly one of the big unsaid dangers of now publishing the legal advice for the Government is whether Geoffrey Cox has misled the HoC in answer to questions on Monday - if he was less than forthcoming he could be in major breach of the ministerial code . . .