Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

May you live in interesting times...

Mother - I think they've only had £430 million of it so far. But on the basis of £200 million per year, they've been overpaid by £130 million

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Oliver Letwin: Hasn't always agreed with Grieve on Brexit stuff. But says that he agrees the effects of Section 13 (which means no MP control on no-deal) are unacceptable.

There isn't a majority in the house for No Deal...

MPs have an incredibly difficult vote next Tuesday. I’d like to think they've tried to read the 585 page WA to have a chance of knowing what they’re voting for. It will be very complicated for most.

So I’ve never understood why MPs would vote against themselves having fuller info (the legal advice) to help them decide. It seems crazy to vote against the opportunity of getting more detail.

Officially a minority government

Well that was money well spent 😑

If this amendment passes, and does create a situation where the House can vote against No Deal, this raises the question of what alternatives there are.

If May's deal is also rejected next week, that creates an issue. The EU have to approve the alternatives.

The only alternative we have full control of (provided the ECJ agree) is revocating a50.

The EEA option is one that needs EU (and EEA) approval.

Ditto a50 extension and a people's vote.

Voting now on Grieve amendment

Now voting on Grieve III.

Result 17:45

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Parliament now on to debating the Grieve amendment - this is the one that would mean MPs could vote to instruct the govt what to do if May's plan falls - eg vote for another referendum, or to stay in a Customs Union

Well its not quite as simple as that Laura, but ok.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Pretty clear that group around the @stephenkinnock and @NickBoles 's idea for Norway type option are ready to pounce as soon as PM's plan rejected - Grieve amendment gives them a mechanism if it's passed, that vote could also be extremely tight

George Parker @GeorgeWParker
Govt about to lose another vote: this time a Grieve amendment giving MPs right to decide what happens next if/when May’s deal defeated next week. That means blocking a no deal exit for starters. But, will focus ERG minds ahead of next week’s vote.

This is the FT's political editor. Thinks government will lose.

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
This feels like the moment for that to happen, esp right after the contempt motion, but dynamics here are different, esp with Brexit supporting Labour MPs and the DUP.

And Ian Dunt being more reserved.

Grieve amendment looks good. Let's hope it passes.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nuclear-treaty-us-russia-nato-cold-war-mike-pompeo-trump-weapons-putin-a8667206.html
Nato says Russia in breach of Cold War-era nuclear treaty as US suspends participation

Nato members have concluded that Russia is in violation of a landmark Cold War-era nuclear treaty, paving the way for the US to leave the pact.

WTF?

Uh oh.

Nuclear war And Brexit?! Happy days!

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
If I had to put money on it, I'd say govt will win. I've lost my confidence on MPs really. If they win I'm going to break open some wine and have it during the Brexit debate.

DH is away. But there is a bottle of wine in the kitchen...

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/cyber-intrusion-hack-republican-house-campaign-fbi-republicans-gop-2018-trump-a8667216.html
Republicans tell FBI they were victim of 'cyber intrusion' during 2018 campaign

Republicans have told the FBI they were the victim of a major cyber hack during the recent midterm elections.

Uh oh.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/contempt-parliament-vote-theresa-may-brexit-legal-advice-government-geoffrey-cox-a8667091.html

Theresa May government found in contempt of parliament over failure to publish full Brexit legal advice

Oh the HoC seems to finally get it’s act together. About time.

Am I going mad or can I hear some faint piped music over the hubbub in the house?

Nikki da Costa @nmdacosta
One of the lovely things I learned on the job was that the first tell as to who has won is where the tellers line up.

ooooooohhhh must work this one out.

Here we go....

Here we go

Sorry it looks like I’m late to the party!

ayes 321 nos 299