Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Looks like there could be a row looming over WHICH legal advice the government release tomorrow - a short version briefly put before cabinet, or something more substantial

Faisal Islam @faisalislam

Another thumping defeat for Government on Grieve amendment - 321-299 - Commons now has power to amend Governments Plan B if Meaningful Vote lost.

No Deal likelihood plunging.

But ...

Robert Peston @Peston

Grieve amendment has made it easier for @theresa_may to secure parliamentary backing for her Brexit plan, because the stakes now much higher for Brexiters if she loses - in that the risk for them has increased that if she loses her big vote there is no Brexit at all

Labour Whips @labourwhips
We think: Fallon, Soames, Green, Freeman, Boles, Lee, Vaizey, Lefroy, Benyon, Clarke, Grieve, Heald, Neill, Greening, J.Johnson, Letwin, Sandbach, Soubry, Allen, Wollaston, Graham, Morgan

I’m now feeling more confused about what this means for Brexit.

Still dreaming that the madness will stop soon...

Sorry to barge in. I’ve been lurking in terror and despair for some time but this evening I’m daring to feel a little relief and a small chink of light. Thank you so much for all the information and knowledge on these threads

Tim Shipman
@ShippersUnbound
Serious questions about why the govt allowed itself to be held in contempt when it was planning to cave in:
A) they thought they would win. If so, poor whipping
B) May/Cox insisted they do it anyway
C) They decided it would help them next week persuade ERG that Brexit is at risk

RE: Robert Peston comment - May needs pretty much ALL her MPs on board to get a deal through.

That includes Rebels and ERG types.

She can't do it without BOTH.

Unless there is a significant Labour rebellion and she only loses a few Tories.

A couple of days ago, it was rumoured that she could lose by up to 400 votes.

Not a handful. FOUR HUNDRED.

Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
Four Labour rebels voted with the government - Skinner, Stringer, Campbell and Hoey, plus ex-Lab independents Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins

David Henig @DavidHenigUK

The chances of a soft Brexit just went up, compared to the chances of no-deal. But the chances of the PM's deal, more or less, getting through, are probably unchanged. As if no other model, or another vote, passes, it will have to be the PM's deal.

But still too many unknowns. Do ERG finally get 48 for leadership vote as the administration looking to be on its last legs? Does PM resign if huge defeat? Does PM pull vote as clearly no majority and do what?

@rosskempsell
Nigel Farage has quit UKIP
6:01 PM - 4 Dec 2018

@jimwaterson
NOT NOW NIGEL

@nickeardleybbc Exchange in Parly just now between current and former minister

“Do you know what’s going on?”

“No, does anybody?”

Oooh thank you all for the helpful commentary today. Do we dare hope things get better from here?

My day off today. Some days off are better than others! Thanks for all the info, links, explanations.

In a nutshell, could someone summarise what happened today. Thank you if you take the time to do so.

Government lost three motions in a very short time, including being found in contempt of Parliament and the Grieve amendment which in theory allows Parliament to instruct government on what to do should when? May's deal be voted down.

And Farage has quit UKIP again. Though that was just over 30 mins ago so he's probably rejoined by now.

Crikey, what a day!

Thank you all for your insightful analysis.

Thank you.

I need to catch up now. Am a bit baffled by all this, but I am sure the Press will give their views (I ignore them), so where do we get our information really now?

Sadly it is a day of wonder for those of us who have an interest.

But it is not an issue for many now. And is blanked out.

nicoala1, I'm putting one together for the start of the next thread. I think we will get there by the end of the evening.

I'm not going to put it up here just yet, simply because I'm still trying to read up myself.

If anyone can sum it up concisely you are doing better than me!

@RedToothBrush - you are a wonder.

Labour Whips @labourwhips
We think: Fallon, Soames, Green, Freeman, Boles, Lee, Vaizey, Lefroy, Benyon, Clarke, Grieve, Heald, Neill, Greening, J.Johnson, Letwin, Sandbach, Soubry, Allen, Wollaston, Graham, Morgan

Confirmed that there were 26 Tories, we missed 4: Bebb, Djanogly, Stevenson and Thomas

Been busy with emergency family stuff last 48 hours ( parent had emergency operation) and phone that I took with me died whilst away. What an evening to come back too!

So AJ says we can revoke and then govt loses critical votes . HB amendment is now the most interesting as the way I see it if it wins then govt will have no choice but to recommend second ref but with Mays deal and no Brexit being the only choice . Ie excluding a no deal as a choice.

I am going to have another gin and tonic . I need one after last 48 hours and to celebrate !

redtoothbrush
Where do I look up who voted what?
Slightly concerned that my MP had no backbone / is scared of Momentum

Only 2 Tories voted for/against 1st 2 amendments i.e. with Opposition - Peter Bone and Philip Hollobone. Sort of surprised but not sure why.