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Brexit

Westminstenders: May plays Sale of the Century

946 replies

RedToothBrush · 28/11/2018 12:17

Theresa May is currently in the midst of a campaign to sell her deal to the public. Unfortunately she appears that there are only 649 people she needs to sell it to, and that's not going so well.

She attempted a sales pitch to potential Labour rebels and succeeded in getting them to actively decide to vote against her.

There are currently 100 backbench tories who have stated they will vote against it, which makes parliamentary maths very difficult.

There is a rising support for plan b in the form of Norway Plus. This may make Remainers less likely to vote for a deal but persuade some leavers to back May.

The ECJ A50 Court case has been heard. Judgment has not been given yet. Its due 'soon'.

Next week the Withdrawal Agreement will be debated in Parliament with the vote due at 7pm on Tuesday 11th December.

Expect a rough couple of weeks.

OP posts:
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SwedishEdith · 04/12/2018 20:19

I agree most won't be following. Which cheered me up a little when I realised no-one would be listening to Johnson's waffle.

SusanWalker · 04/12/2018 20:22

Cornwall for Europe #FBPE
Cornwall for Europe #FBPE
@Cornwall4EU
#Cornwall Council has resolved to support a #PeoplesVote!

  • 47 For
  • 40 Against

Really good news - confirms what we have been finding from talking to people on the streets of towns across Cornwall.

People here want a final say on #Brexit.

SusanWalker · 04/12/2018 20:23

Lovely speech by Ian Blackford making the case for FOM.

wherearemychickens · 04/12/2018 20:25

I'm liking Ian Blackford.

Greensleeves · 04/12/2018 20:28

Not usually an Ian Blackford fan but his words about the EU as a peace project, FOM and the opportunities we are taking away from our children have sent a shiver down my spine.

This is all so desperately sad.

frumpety · 04/12/2018 20:30

So if Parliament are now allowed a say on Plan B , does that mean the Government has 21 days to make one up ? And does the EU have to agree to it ?

DoctorTwo · 04/12/2018 20:31

Much as I loathe the xenophobe May I must say I'm sorry she wasn't defeated more heavily. It's great that power has been handed back to parliament.

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 20:33

Be interesting to see tomorrow's papers.

I agree few will have followed it today. Christ, I'm not sure on what exactly has happened and the implications thereof.

lonelyplanetmum · 04/12/2018 20:33

*Most will not have a clue what is going on
*
This is true. I have been monitoring FB. The lead no deal Leaver ( my friend's Mum) is saying:

" Why did we get given a remainer PM whose planned a deal for Brexit. She is delibaratly (sic) making the deals so bad that it is not a proper leave- she is after a ridiculous 2nd referendum. Devious."

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 20:38

The leavers I have on my fb have changed their tune slightly....

'we had a referendum. It may or may not have been a bad decision but it should be upheld'.

Was that a unicorn I just saw prancing free in the sunlit uplands?

2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 04/12/2018 20:42

My bigot brother seems to be acknowledging that Brexit is not panning out the way he thought it would. He’s so torn wants to supportTM but also doesn’t like the deal. Oh and doesn’t care about poor people apparently.
Git .

DGRossetti · 04/12/2018 20:45

Comments here are fascinating. Where are all the leavers ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46446694

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 20:46

What has amused me is the number of leavers who are suddenly Gina miller's biggest fan, as they've realised that without that landmark case May could have waved her WA through....

... I'm quite sure they wanted her shot for treason at the time...🙄 🙄 🙄

DGRossetti · 04/12/2018 20:49

Also, Farage seems to have effectively neutralised UKIP as the bogey man the ERG were relying on ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46448299

He's effectively saying UKIP are currently driving people to Remain .....

RedToothBrush · 04/12/2018 20:51

David Allen Green@davidallengreen
Here is a thread on the actual legal significance of today's exciting Brexit events

Today's exciting Brexit events have no actual legal significance.

The AG's opinion was an opinion.

Today's parliamentary votes are in respect of parliamentary procedure, as opposed to applicable law.

The law has not changed today.

But.

The AG opinion indicates how the ECJ may decide the A50 revocation matter.

The parliamentary votes may steer MPs and thereby the government between the ends of Deal, No Deal, or No Brexit.

The law has not changed, but the politics have done.

Politics and policy happen in a framework of law, and law is shaped and influenced in turn by politics and policy.

Each set parameters for the other.

This is especially true of rules-based and treaty-based entities like the EU.

What is now more obvious than before is that there is a real path now for the UK parliament to "take control" of Brexit policy and to steer it towards the now opening gap of unilateral revocation.

It would be hard, and it is unlikely, but it is now more possible than before.

But today's events need first to be translated into legal(astic) acts: the ECJ needs to adopt the AG opinion, and Parliament needs to vote down the deal.

Once Parliament agrees the deal, then Brexit. Too late to revoke.

Only then is there a viable path for no Brexit.

So, this is a chance for Remainers which was not obvious yesterday. The fog has lifted a bit.

But everything will come down to what the ECJ and the House of Commons now do in the next few days or weeks.

/ends.

OP posts:
borntobequiet · 04/12/2018 20:53

CLOSET REMAINERS FARAGE DOES ANOTHER RUNNER? (Their caps). WTF? (My caps).

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 20:56

Farage is going to end up a bloody tory isn't he?

That's terrifying.

ElenadeClermont · 04/12/2018 20:59

Faragw has tried to join the Tories many times recently, but so far they have turned him down.

RedToothBrush · 04/12/2018 21:00

Yep.

Retweeted by westmonster

Michael Heaver @michael_heaver
We need a Brexiteer Prime Minister and @Nigel_Farage in the Conservative Party.

OP posts:
2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney · 04/12/2018 21:01

But everything will come down to what the ECJ and the House of Commons now do in the next few day

Which is what I was saying page before last.with importantly my assumptions : ECJ usually follows AJ advice. HoC is likely to vote down deal. Plus Grieve and Benn amendment = 2nd ref with no option of no deal = (fingers crossed) no Brexit!

Think I will be at Ladbrookes tomorrow morning.

Please be aware I have had a stressful 2 days and now on my second G and T, so may be under the influence. ( still going to the bookies though)

Now going to watch Mrs Wilson it was brilliant last week!

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 21:05

Has he? I know a few of his cronies have, but didn't realise he had been turned down recently.

The problem is the bastard has a type of charisma that appeals to a certain type - something somewhat lacking in the tory party incumbents. I think combined with the credibility (hah!) of being a member of a mainstream party he could be hugely dangerous - far more so than he has been already, and that's saying something.

SwedishEdith · 04/12/2018 21:06

I remember in All Out War it said that whenever Farage was in the news, support for Remain increased.

frumpety · 04/12/2018 21:09

If he does join, what's the betting they will pin the inevitable disaster on him ?

ClashCityRocker · 04/12/2018 21:12

That would be good frumpety.

Why he was given the platform he was given is beyond me.

Talkinpeece · 04/12/2018 21:16

I cannot see the Tories letting him in.
The local parties would rise up.
Having seen Tory County Councillors with Farage Free Zone stickers on their doors, many tories loathe him viscerally.