Westministenders: Passing the Buck

[RedToothBrush]

There's a deal.

The press are over excited.

May has united the country.

Everyone hates it.
(Apart from David Allen Green)

Parliament might yet reject it.

Nothing is yet decided and everything is still to be sorted.

Incorrect use of term 'hyperbole' Mightbanhammer

Ok not biting.

woman That is total hyperbole and doesn't help defend against unjust rightwing - but not fascist - policies
99.9% of people just switch off

But on the substance of your comment.
You are wrong.

Most people have switched off BCF that's how this is happening.
Clever isn't it.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/14/brexit-deal-theresa-may-conservatives-meet-decide-cabinet-politics-live

Theresa May’s former Chief of Staff Nick Timothyy* has launched an attack on the deal in The Telegraphh*, branding the deal a “capitulation”.

It is a capitulation not only to Brussels, but to the fears of the British negotiators themselves, who have shown by their actions that they never believed Brexit can be a success.

This includes, I say with the heaviest of hearts, the Prime Minister.
...

Matthew O'Toole@MatthewOToole2

Nick is perhaps the single most influential author of this deal.
Every one of the shrill threats and red lines he dictated drove the negotiations towards this end.
He shut out official advice and dissent.
If its a bad deal, he broke it - he owns it.
😂😂

If I were the ERG what would I do?

Option 1: Just vote down the bill.
Outcome: It depends on what Labour do. They will do anything to stop the passage of the deal.
Risk: Labour abstain or support the bill and it gets through.

Option 2: No confidence May.
Outcome: Could go either way. They could end up with a more remainy PM or one of their own. If they defeat May it throws the timetable for Brexit out anyway.
Risk: May could survive and be immune from a leadership challenge for a year.

Option 3: Combination of 1 and 2.
Outcome: See above. More opportunity to force no deal through.
Risk: More opportunities for Remain to stop Brexit completely.

Given how they feel on the ropes and their desparation to get the Brexit they want, I do find it hard to think they will just go for the 1st unless they are very confident of the numbers and Labour's position. 2 and 3 are higher risk in principle but are available as a last resort.

They will not accept this deal lying down though. So they WILL do something to try and sabotage things over the next two weeks. Its simply a question of what will they do?

Fascism is embarrassing I've noticed.
Which bits of what the english regime is doing to its citizens right now are not fascistic?

Option 4: Amendments.
Outcome: The ERG like amendments. They could scupper the deal in this way. Remember the deal in theory can't be amended by government because its simply what they have agreed with the EU. A vote could put the government in a situation where they can only go back to the UK and say, they can't approve it without X change. The ERG know it will kill the deal, but they get the EU to look like the bad guys in the process.
Risk: Do they have the numbers to defeat the government on amendments? Unlikely. But they get to affect public opinion by trying anyway and make May look bad in the process.

@CllrBobBarr
^David Gauke confirms on #newsnight that the country will be worse off under Theresa May’s deal than by remaining in the EU by refusing to deny it under questioning from Emily Maitlis.
Gives the novel justification that Leave voters knew that that was what they were voting for^

I do see why english people have to lie to themselves.

I understand.

Lots of people did in 1932.

The blood of those who were raped and burned and gassed to death is on their hands.

I am shocked and not surprised by your cruelty.

Bye folks.

All of us on this thread think any deal will be worse than what we have in the EU

BUT
democracy means we can't just ignore a vote, however flawed, or rerun because we don't like the result
Opinion has changed very little - nowhere near enough to justify this, without driving Leavers to vote far right

AND
Being in the EU has not protected the UK vulnerable from austerity, UC etc - it can't, because we don't have a United States of Europe

All that shit happens because the UK electorate keep voting for that

Let's try to avoid things getting really bad, like the 51st state,
which a US FTA would do
and this WA rules that out - which is why the ERG & the other Ultras are going berserk

I think you are on a similar page to me BigChoc.

I fear the conseuences of the far right getting worse under a variety of situations. I am uncomfortable with attempting to simply remain unless there is a shift in political opinion. I say that as a huge remainer at heart and that being my personal preference. I just don't think it that simple or easy. Remaining wouldn't be a continuation of where we have been anyway. Brexit changed things.

This country has a lot of problems. Most are economically based and we have to tackle that to get to the heart of a lot of the underlying problems we have.

I personally don't just think we have a problem with the far right either. Its rising authoritarism on the left too. Again that comes from economics and the assault on the truth with social media.

If you characterise things as purely fascist, you actively help authoritarism on the left. I think its important to keep things in this context and see the pattern of political breakdown across the board. Its too complex to over simplify problems.

I acknowledge the problems, I just see a different way of calling it out and dealing with them.

Tomorrow's papers:

Look at the difference 2.5 years makes !!

.

I'm worrried about amendments too^

NS demanded the right to make some BUT ... negotations before Brexit are finished !
Why don't people get this ?

May being dumped won't change it
Even a GE and PM Corbyn won't

The govt are not going to rerun the ref with Remain vs Leave
At best it would be Remain vs No Deal - and I would fear the result
It might well be this WA vs No Deal, without any Remain option

The EU won't spend another 2 years negotiating something else before Brexit
For more negotiations - into say Barnier's Norway+++ - we have to wait until transition

From the lib dems email

*For two years, the Liberal Democrats have been the only party who have consistently fought to give the people the final say on the Brexit deal.

No one, not the Remainers or the Leavers, voted for a deal that leaves the UK as a rule taker rather than a rule maker.

A deal that keeps us loosely tied to Europe, but with no influence and shunned by the rest of the world.

A deal that will wreck our NHS, endanger our security and damage our economy.

It is absolutely perverse that the Government is continuing to go along with the fantasy that the people voted to be worse off in every way.

The tide of public opinion on Brexit has turned:

4 in 5 people think the Conservatives are making a mess of Brexit;
575 constituencies out of 650 back giving the people the final say;
700,000 people marched for a People’s Vote.

It’s time to give the people the final say and the chance to stop Brexit.

The Lib Dems are fighting every day for those who did not vote for this catastrophic Brexit.

Brexit can be stopped. With your support, we will give the people the final say, with the option to Remain in the EU.

Best wishes,

Tom

Tom Brake MP
(Anti-)Brexit Spokesperson, Lib Dems*

I like the phrasing 'my deal or no brexit' - it's a massive climb down, provided she can cling to power long enough to get it all over the line.

Loving the comparison of sun headlines - they're not far off 'so what's the frigging point?' and following that will be 'I never voted for this anyway.'
I wonder how many months/years it will take until you can't find a leave voter for love nor money?

democracy means we can't just ignore a vote, however flawed, or rerun because we don't like the result

The vote was advisory, and could have been dealt with differently or ignored altogether, but it's dominated politics for the last 29 months, so that can't be called being ignored.

We rerun local and general elections all the time - we expect them to be every 3 or five years. If a seat falls vacant we hold by elections, we don't leave it empty until the next set of elections are due.

Most are economically based and we have to tackle that to get to the heart of a lot of the underlying problems we have.

Fully agree with that, and this is what May should have been tackling all along. She should have put some flesh onto her first speech outside 10 Downing Street when she talked about the 'just about managing'. I suspect a lot of Leavers would have said 'OK' especially those in deprived areas. The ones who wouldn't have liked it are those smug comfortable south east England Tories, who are in the same mould as she is.

I can understand @woman1107 's concern: it's not just the Brexit vote and the attempted silencing of those that oppose it and the illogical decision to vote to impoverish a country to reclaim a sovereignty that was never lost and to regain control over 0.7% of GDP - while damaging growth by c2%

It's the Brexit vote and the rise of Trumpian/Orwellian False News and the devaluing of balanced news reporting alongside the re-writing of history.

It's the Brexit vote and False News and the rise in hate crime and "othering" of people who have a legal right to be here.

It's the Brexit vote and False News and hate crime and the subjection of the poorest and most vulnerable to "austerity" economics, where the rich need to be given more to motivate them while those that have nothing must paid the price

It's the Brexit vote and False News and hate crime and austerity politics and the welfare state and public services being disabled and starved in order to allow disaster capitalists to make money

It's the Brexit vote and False News and hate crime and austerity politics and disaster capitalism and the rise of identity politics gaslighting women who want the safe places, rights and safeguards that they have fought for over a 100 years to establish to remain

...and breeeaaathe because I could go on

Someone on here recommended "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914" by Christopher Clark. A whole series of complex, inter-related, in some cases unlucky, but in most cases deliberate (for their immediate objective) occurrences that inevitably and inexorably led to the unintended consequences of the Great War and I'm only a fraction of the way into it

I'm sure a similar book could be written about the 1930s and sleepwalking to the Second World War

We're sleepwalking to fascism now

peregrina We have to change public opinion from the current 52% or so Remain to 60%
Then we could justify a rerun so soon
AND
be sure of actually winning it
A 2nd vote to Leave, but with No Deal, would stop a quick Rejoin after the crash

That US FTA is ready to fax to us to sign, as soon as we leave with No Deal
After that, there is no Rejoin possible

The current govt are enabled to be ruthless against those on benefits, asylum seekes etc
because people vote for these policies

We have to change public attitudes, or voting again will keep giving more of the same

A No Deal Brexit - which is the most probable resutt if this WA is voted down - is not likely to bring out the better side of people
Desperate people, who have lost everything, may riot, then look for scapegoats, rather than admit it's their own damn bad choices

• especially if they've voted TWICE for Brexit and are angry at the people who forced the 2nd vote

The PM revoking, maybe at the last moment, is the only way to Remain

Remainer MPs voting down the WA would probably ensure she won't do that, but would just let time run out to No Deal
Brexiter MPs voting it down, however .....