Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

Reports were that Monday 12 Nov was the deadline, after which the UK would go into overdrive with No Deal prep,
even if hoping is still possible.

I don't know if that date has been pushed back, due to dithering / hope.

I'm puzzled about this "No Deal masterplan" to effectively buy 2 years transition into No Deal at about half the price of a transition via WA.

• red Maybe my brain has switched into weekend mode, but I don't see why the EU would accept this 🧐

Done my letter to Theresa May. My MP is now a LibDem and I know which side she supports so there is no need to send one to her.

peregrina Ever since the referendum, I've been wishing that Cameron, then May, would call for a cross-party effort on Brexit.
It's the only hope of helping a bitterly divided country get along together later

It would still be possible, if May goes, that if Labour or Tory manage to form a govt, they could agree with the Opposition that Brexit must be a joint effort, even have 1-2 ministers from the Opposition in DexEU.

The science minister visited DS's work a few weeks ago. It was expected that some announcement would be made. Nothing was; his visit was a waste of time.

I thought 12 Nov was the deadline - because the EU summit was originally scheduled for next week.

But it got shifted back two weeks. So in theory there are an extra two weeks.

I agree about why would the EU accept that. My point was more that we are about to shift into full on being prepared for a no deal scenario as May craps her pants and realises there is no way she can get anything through parliament. No matter how many tricks she tries to pull.

The rest of parliament still hasn't grasped that its Deal or No Deal time and the only alternative viable option on the table to those is actually revoking a50 completely. Unless the EU are prepared to bend over backward in some way and politically there is no intencitive or reason for them to do that (mainly because it would be hugely unpopular for them domestically to do so).

I'd still send your MP a letter, she's probably getting hate mail and death threats from Leavers so a bit of balance is good. I can't imagine how stressful it must be to be an MP at the moment, especially a female Remainer.

I read that the civil service advisers told the govt that 12 Nov was the last possible date to give time to prepare for No Deal.

However, the NAO report on Brexit preparedness should have told them they were already too late

I suppose it depends on what the govt decides are minimum requirements:
a luxury jet fueled up, ready to go somewhere that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the UK ?

Nick Gutteridgee@nick*_gutteridge

Michel Barnier’s deputy Sabine Weyand tonight briefed EU ambassadors that there has been no significant progress on the Irish border - the last remaining issue in the talks - due to political deadlock in London
6:56 PM · Nov 9, 2018

Trump might impose sanctions on the UK !

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/09/mod-told-to-hand-over-any-reports-of-abuse-by-us-troops-in-iraq

The Ministry of Defencee* has been ordered to hand over any reports by British troops where they suspected US forces in Iraq were mistreating detainees.

I expect to see the shredders working overtime at the MoD. As happened when we cut and ran from the Colonies - some documents were just too sensitive.

Or to be balanced, just like the Stasi did. I gather there are people even now piecing together Stasi documents which were shredded but not destroyed.

Place marking and twirling my name change

Just a quick thank you to Red - awesome work and with the help of others and linked sources, knowledge and understanding gained. Just what the Internet was invented for

Rebecca Vincent @rebecca_vincent
.@ObserverUK's @carolecadwalla wins Reporters Without Borders’ special ‘L’esprit de RSF’ award for her reporting on the manipulation and subversion of democratic processes in the US and UK.^

This isn't a small award

Best thing about t'internet is when Leavers come on and tell us that no one said it would be easy, or we knew we were voting to leave the Single Market, two seconds worth of googling will find Davis talking about the easiest deals in history and Hannan talking about no one said we would leave the single market.

Then there are the other priceless gems like Raab suddenly discovering that the Channel separates us from France a substantial part of UK trade comes via Calais - Dover, a video worthy of playing on repeat.

May’s Brexit Deal Suffers Major Setback After EU ‘Rejects’ UK Arbitration Mechanism

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mays-brexit-deal-suffers-major-setback-after-eu-rejects-uk-arbitration-mechanismukk5be60739e4b0e8438897d972?utmhppref=uk-politics

... it is understood that arbitration by an independent body is now no longer being discussed by the two sides
after the EU made clear that it would be legally impossible to subject EU laws to anything other than the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

May has repeatedly insisted that the ECJ cannot have any direct role in the UK’s exit
and Cabinet Brexiteers have made the issue a red line in the talks.
...
But the pushback from Brussels may now tip Cox into advising ministers that the hoped-for compromise plan is no longer viable.
“The EU’s stance makes his job a lot easier,” one source said.

Crunch time.
It will be No Deal with cliff hedge and food shortages for the next 6 months.

TM failed. Her whole government failed, incl all of those ministers (DD, Liam Fox etc...) who were so keen to tell us it will be oh ever so easy to get all they wanted.
Time to held them accountable imo. (It won’t be Corbyn doing that though).

I agree with Mother If it wasn’t for the fact I need to plan for a No Deal, try and evaluate how bad it will be on a very personal level. I would spend my days watching cute cats on YouTube instead.

The thing is I’ve spoken to a few Remainers who are very angry at the whole thing. you usually cant see them been that angry because ‘they don’t want to rock the boat/fall out with neighbours etc..’ But angry they are.
Speaking to my MIL, she is getting angry and very much on edge that she was told it wouod be fine when clearly it isn’t. I suspect you have many more leavers in that position too.

People are waking up.

A No Deal will mean a hell of a lot of discontent from both sides. Things will get unstable.

Is there really no alternative to No Deal now?

146 posts already and I coldn't keep up with the last thread...

Brexiteers don’t want a second ref because they fear public opinion has swung against Leave. Remainers are wary because they’re not sure it has swung enough.
I think it’s worth a concerted push for a People’s Vote with an option of Remain. Seems to be what J Johnson is advocating.

But angry they are.

And nearly 700,000 of us turned up to protest - vastly exceeding the numbers the organisers expected.

Does anyone think that Boris Johnson might get behind the call for a PV? If you read Jo's parting speech, it is carefully crafted to explain cause for Brexiteer unhappiness also. Boris can adapt that? His dad is working the media at the moment. May has just been savaged by a dead sheep with perfect timing. It was a game changer when B adopted leave and it would be a game changer if he decides to heal and unite the country behind a PV.

pretzels I am in York tomorrow at a function, will keep my eyes out for you all, although selfishly hoping it doesn't prevent taxi getting me from A to B in time