Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

Maybe the strategy is to look as though you're negotiating hard, so everyone gives you the benefit of the doubt, right up to the last minute. Then you get your No Deal.

If it's about money, pleasing powerful people in the US, etc etc.

Sweep stake on who will resign next?

The ministers are going in one by one. I’m going for McVey. Exciting times.

I'm a regular lurker and tbh I'm not sure what is happening this afternoon, could someone knowledgeable please post a bullet point idiots guide to help me understand

TIA

Carl Dinnenn@carldinnen* (ITV news political correspondent)

The DUP have not seen the detail on the new proposed Withdrawal Agreement but suggest that
without significant change from what was outlined in last week’s letter it is not likely to be something they could support.
5:48 PM · Nov 13, 2018 · Twitter for iPad

Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson
So, we’re off. Cabinet to be invited to approve draft EU withdrawal agreement - one to one meetings tonight & full Cabinet tomorrow. If the Leavers who’ve been threatening to quit are going to do it it’s now or never.

Stewart Wood @StewartWood
Theresa May will say to Remainer Cabinet members: “Back my deal or get a catastrophic Hard Brexit”

Theresa May will say to Leave Cabinet members: “Back my deal or you won’t get Brexit at all”

She has to see them one-to-one. It’s the only way to say totally contradictory things.

And thats about it. And it still might not work.

portia me too. And I don't know either.

Waves to Mrs8 👋

Downing Street say ‘draft agreement has been reached’ so that must mean an agreement between Barnier and May surely?

DUP already among noises about voting against it.

Well you were 24 hours too early, but I'll go with this.

Robert Peston @Peston
Next 48 hours shaping up to be among biggest days in Brexit history. Either we get a deal, in which case there will be 500 pages of Withdrawal Agreement and a five-page Outline Political Declaration on the future of UK’s relationship with EU to digest and assess. Or...
...talks fail to clear impasse, in which eventuality there will be no November EU council to ratify the deal and it will be full steam ahead to preparation for a no-deal Brexit. Oof. Knife-edge.

They'll need to be kept separate until she's seen them all.

I've seen people sacked this way.

James is optimistic.

James Patrick @J_amesp
Oh cool. A Brexit agreement has been reached which won’t survive until Christmas. Pop a cork everyone.

In the cheap seats.. @MrCheapSeats
Baldrick: “I have a plan, sir.

Blackadder: “Really, Baldrick? A cunning and subtle one?”

Baldrick: “Yes, sir.”

Blackadder: “As cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University?

Personally if it lasts til the end of the week, I think it will exceed the expectations of many.

What a disloyal shower - May is herding rabid rats, but still gotta laugh ....

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

I am told Cabinet was roundly bollocked by Theresa May today for leaking from it.
She blamed leaks last week for the humble address defeat today, and asked them to stop.
That too has now leaked. 😂
5:37 PM · Nov 13, 2018

So if this deal doesn't get the MPs approval, we could still continue negotiating until January? Or is this likely to be crunch time? What happens if everyone just resigns in a huff? Do we get a chance to regroup or have the EU made their final decision?

(Apologies to anyone offended by my inability to keep up with the plot)

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
The Opposition has just succeeded in its "humble address" motion to have legal advice on the withdrawal agreement delivered up to Parliament.

Unsure as to the wisdom of this, but it will be fascinating to see what happens next.

So basically a deal has been done in theory and has to be voted on in parliament, is this correct?

Since red is channelling Blackadder ....

Blackadder on board the pirate ship, with Captain Rum:

Rum: A masterly plan, me young master.
And one that leads me to make an announcement meself.

Blackadder: What’s that, Rum?

Rum: Truth is, I don’t know the way to the Cape of Good Hope
anyway.

Blackadder: Well, what were you going to do?

Rum: Oh, what I usually do.
Sail ’round and ’round the Isle of Wight ’til everyone gets dizzy.
Then head for home.

May is Captain Rum 😏

• but can she even find her way back home ?

Yuk. Grease-Smug is being interviewed on the BBC. I can’t watch.

portia We have to see first what the Cabinet decides,
whether some resign,
whether May demands "tweaks" to the deal - which the EU may / may not agree

then see if the ERG manage to start a Tory leadership election

• some think Sir Graham Brady, the 1922 Chair, already has the required 48 letters, but has decided this is not ime for a contest however he may have no choice if the ERG insist

May could still put a bill before the HoC, before this election

Dickens: a classic History of Brexit

A Child’s Dream of a Star ==> Great Expectations ==> The Long Voyage ==> Oliver Twist ==> Hard Times ==> Bleak House ==> Hunted Down

So if this deal doesn't get the MPs approval, we could still continue negotiating until January?

No.

Or is this likely to be crunch time?
Yes

What happens if everyone just resigns in a huff?
We still leave on the 29th March. Without a deal. Or we are left with an a50 revokation situation.

Do we get a chance to regroup or have the EU made their final decision?
Its ultimately our decision not the EUs.

Sorry if this was posted before. I'm finding it hard to keep up with the threads and do a speed read sometimes. It is a discussion on 'Ireland ant the English question, with Fintan O'Toole. It covers Brexit and it is quite interesting. An invented oppression.

Thanks BCF

We'll see what happens during the course of the evening then.

Peter Geoghegan @PeterKGeoghegan
DUP's Sammy Wilson now on @BBCRadio4 sounding very much like he won't support May's deal. Asked if he trusted May he doesn't say yes

Easily Brexit Day is 29 March
If May / the Cabinet / the HoC vote down the deal, then "negotiations" will continue, but it will really be just the EU waiting for the govt to cave in at the last minute and sign

The EU won't extend just to have months more of the UK squabbling with itself

They'll only extend if
either
the deal has been done and we just need an extra month for E27 heads of govt and European Parliment approval
or
they think the political situation may change for the better (sanity) in the UK
e.g. a 2nd Ref, or a GE, or even (my fantasy) a temporary cross-party alliance just for Brexit

btw, this is just a Withdrawal Agreement, that gives us 20 months transition, until 31 Dec 2020,
to sort out trade details, transport, agencies etc with the EU
and possibly with the rest of the world, depending on the terms of the EU Custom Union deal - do we still share all their deals