Westministenders: Game Over?

[RedToothBrush]

May has a draft deal which she has presented to the Cabinet. Woohooo!

The catch is, it doesn't mention the Irish Border. Just a minor point. This is because she has no way forward on it. There are so many red lines from so many different groups shes tangled up in knots with them.

She wrote a letter to the DUP to tell them to suck it up. Arlene has told her to stick it. And if she hadn't told her to stick it, Scottish Tories would have told her to stick it. David Davis has told her to stick it. Rees-Moog has told her to stick it. And this afternoon, one of the Ministers for Queues at Dover, Jo Johnson, told her to stick it and that we need a people's vote. On top of that, her plans to try and get cross party support and get the Labour Party to support it, have suffered a blow as Momentum voted to tell May to stick it.

In fact it might be harder to think of people who WILL support it.

Not that this is a surprise. We've all be aware of this for some time. Is it finally game over?

The government have at least seemingly realised that this month is the last opportunity they have for a deal. Dominic has also realised that Dover is quite close to France and this is quite a big deal.

The EU pushed back their meeting until the 27th. This coincidentally is the same day there is a decision over a50 at the ECJ and the right to revoke.

If May can't get her act together over the Irish Border, this might yet prove to be the last option open to her, to prevent Brexmaggeddon.

Jo Johnson is not too far from the mark with vassalage or chaos? Take your pick Mrs May.

What will be interesting:

• Is Blair still recommending Remainer MPs vote down the deal, to try to force an emergency revocation of A50 ?
• And will they dare risk a No Deal crash if the govt won't blink

May needs Labour Remainers to counter the ERG and DUP, both of whom will probably vote against.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Brexiters already queuing up in Lobby to flame the deal @BorisJohnson to our @KateEMcCann “This is just about as bad as it could poss be... UK remaining in the customs union.. and we haven’t even managed to protect the Union..” if reports right...

Boris Johnson tells @KateEMcCann on @skynews “Govt in Dublin would have more say over governance of N Ireland in some matters than London...Cabinet shd chuck it out” if reports on deal right

This has the air of what the Brexiters did to David Cameron’s renegotiation from February 2016... trying to kill it before it has even landed

And here is Jacob Rees Mogg saying that Mrs May has accepted that the UK will become a “not a vassal state but a slave state”
twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062400110766776322

Its all going so well...

I love this reply:

Carl Deaker @cdeaker
So Jacob Rees-Mighty & Boris Johnson are now admitting that the UK had Sovereignty all along & didn’t need Brexit. We didn’t need to “take back control” as we already had it

Reuters World @ReutersWorld
DUP expects to be briefed on Brexit withdrawal text soon

Andy Lewis @lecanardnoir
If I understand what is going on, the DUP are going to go apeshit, aren’t they?

Or will they be bunged a few more billion?

Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
Weird psychology of news of "a deal".

The media heave a huge sigh of relief, when actually little has changed. The pound rises with the news (times in the graph are US).

But hang on a minute. Prospects in parliament still pretty doubtful

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn* (Sun political editor)
Boris Johnson tells @BBCPolitics that PM's deal is "a chronicle of a death foretold" and "vassal state stuff",
as UK will be staying in large parts of the single market and a customs union.
"Am I going to vote against it? The answer is yes".

I wonder if Mrs May's chamber has a lift with a trap door like in James Bond, with a chute down to the basement or alligators?

Thanks Red and Bigchoc.

One of those weeks which really is going to be a long time in politics then.

I work in a secondary school. The staff room is divided into
a) despairing vocal remainers
b) despairing quiet remainers who don't fully understand (me)
c) people who just get irate if the subject comes up (suspect leave voters)

Let's hope year 9 are little sods tomorrow so we can all unite on something.

Boris Johnson interviewed on the BBC says that if we accept this deal we will lose the power to make our own laws for the first time in a thousand years this government won’t have a say in our laws. Er, surely contradicting his referendum campaigning points? Why are these posts never picked up on in the interviews (rhetorical question)

Ooh! Robert Mueller seeking more information on Vile-Little-Man-Frog.

Oh, please, please...

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/13/nigel-farage-mueller-russia-investigation-trump-latest-jerome-corsi-claim?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Sorry - re Boris above -points, not posts.

The Doopers will be paid off.

The deal will be struck.

And then UK will gain back its sovereignty. (They had it all along anyway), so Happy Days for all. But beware the pesky immigrants that May had the power to sort out in her previous role. But she didn't.

What was all the fuss about then.

The wonderful 'deal' that May is explaining to the other children this evening, is it from or in conjunction with the EU (meaning it might be acceptable to the EU) or is it Mrs Mays new work of fiction?

Christopher Hope
‏*@christopherhope*
NEW Iain Duncan Smith suggests no Cabinet ministers will resign over the deal because their 'spines do not yet meet their brains'." #Brexit

Beth Rigby
‏*@BethRigby*
More Beth Rigby Retweeted Christopher Hope
Very interesting - another (pro-May) cabinet minister told me earlier they don’t think anyone will resign

Is this a Brexit in name only then?? I can't keep up.

The question is, will May get it through Parliament; will the Grease-Smugs, Johnsons etc. fold at the last moment? I think if they do, they are almost finished as a force (fingers crossed.)

Bet Johnson regrets giving up his US citizenship - I wonder if he can reclaim it, and then go and find a nice little earner in the US somewhere?

Tony Connellyy@tconnellyRTE*
·Breaking: An Irish govt source has said the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar @campaignforleo
will hold a special cabinet meeting tomorrow to consider the draft Withdrawal Agreement reached by EU and UK negotiators last night.

I was absolutely unable to control myself seeing that Boris interview on the 6 o clock news Singing. I hollered at top volume 'AND WHOSE FAULT IS THAT YOU NUMBSKULL' and had a few tears of fury. I blame him. I can be reasonable most of the time and say that 17m leave votes didn't come out of nowhere, most things are neither as good nor as bad as we expect etc etc. But i do believe that Boris's decision to go with Leave swung the 400000 votes that caused Leave to win. I don't actually think most of the crimes committed against electoral law caused the result. I think THAT SKUNK and Cameron are personally responsible for this.

"Payment" to the DUPes might be a guarantee of no prosecutions re Cash for Ash scandal
also no prosecutions of security forces for historic torture or murders during the Troubles

Big Choc.

Exactly, I didn't want to put it out there so bluntly but I reckon you have a great point there. Could be a game changer maybe?

NEW Iain Duncan Smith suggests no Cabinet ministers will resign over the deal because their 'spines do not yet meet their brains'."

Much as I loath Ian Odious Smith, that did tickle me. I apologise in advance for not believing it to be original though ....

annandale The Yes vote was a combination of many factors, on top of anger at austerity and the usual "mid-term blues" in which a PM (or POTUS) usually gets a kicking.

Turncoat Bojo was one
but Cambridge Analytica was another
and the Russian bots

My rough guess: the first 2 swung ½ - ¾ million each, Russia maybe 100k
so the vote would have been 2.2 - 3.2 million different without these 3 things Cameron hadn't factored in.

Boris Johnson interviewed on the BBC says that if we accept this deal we will lose the power to make our own lawsfor the first time in a thousand years this government won’t have a say in our laws. Er, surely contradicting his referendum campaigning points? Why are these points never picked up on in the interviews (rhetorical question)

Brexit has come about partly through the failure of British mainstream journalism.

"Payment" to the DUPes might be a guarantee of no prosecutions re Cash for Ash scandal also no prosecutions of security forces for historic torture or murders during the Troubles

Has no one learned from the "don't prosecute" letters the IRA had during Camerons dismal reign ?

Jeremy Corbyn statement:
"We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available.
But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country.

Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy - and that guarantees standards and protections.

If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it."

DG It would be perfectly possibly to pass a law pardoning all crimes committed during the Troubles

What would make it more sensible - and maybe required under the GFA - is to agree it with the RoI,
who might well insist that all terrorists, Republican & Loyalist, be pardoned too

The RoI suffered terrorism too and many suspect Uk security forces and even the UK govt were behind some of it.
So they would probably need to pass a similar law

I've long thought. no point in prosecuting people, some in their 80s now, so long after a civil war is resolvex

Wholesale pardons wouldn't stop public enquiries, where appropriate

In fact, it would help, as people could no longer refuse to give evidence on the grounds they didn't want to incriminate themselves