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Brexit

People’s Vote Delusion

614 replies

PersonaNonGarter · 21/10/2018 23:20

It isn’t going to happen. For the following reasons:

  1. May Government won’t vote for a second referendum
  2. No new post-May Tory Government will vote for a second referendum
  3. Jeremy Corbyn and those in the Labour Party front benches won’t vote for a second referendum
  4. There is no agreement about what the referendum would ask.
  5. There is no plausible timetable for a referendum.

Why would Corbyn want a second referendum? He is a Leaver wanting to win in Leave seats. And he wants to implement his domestic agenda, not waste any further time on Brexit votes. The current situation SUITS him.

OP posts:
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FishesaPlenty · 25/10/2018 14:47

I’d love to know which countries that we don’t already have trade deals with via the EU are queuing up to do FTAs with us and what were going to sell them that we can’t already?

More importantly, which countries that aren't already in an FTA with the EU (or in an advanced stage of negotiation) do we actually want an FTA with and are prevented from having one by our EU membership?

Peregrina · 25/10/2018 14:56

If the UK can't provide school places for kids it's because of government and local planning failures not because of migrants.

Local Authorities are no longer allowed to build a new school even when they have identified a demand. They have to persuade an Academy chain or someone to start a Free School - one of Gove's vanity projects. I don't ever recall voting on whether we wanted to have Multi-academy chains.

jasjas1973 · 25/10/2018 14:57

...but Leavers want MORE non EEA migrants...wow what inspired thinking!

Quietrebel · 25/10/2018 14:59

Well there is one biggie: the US.
But good luck with that.
There is a reason why the EU hasn't closed it yet and I genuinely can't believe anyone would think the UK on its own would do better.

Peregrina · 25/10/2018 15:03

How about we ask those people from Honduras who are currently trekking across Mexico to the US border to come here instead? Maybe they don't quite fit the bill though, because although as Hispanics they don't count as white, they are extremely likely to be Catholic and we mustn't discriminate in favour of Christians.

FishesaPlenty · 25/10/2018 15:13

I imagine the G20 would be a starting point for a list of countries you'd ideally want a FTA with.

The G20 membership comprises a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85 per cent of global gross domestic product and over 75 per cent of global trade.

So, the 20 members of the G20:

EU
United Kingdom (that's us)
France (EU)
Germany (EU)
Italy (EU)
European Union (EU)

Current Trade Agreement
Canada (CETA)
Japan (Economic Partnership Agreement)
South Korea (FTA)
Mexico (FTA)
South Africa (Economic Partnership Agreement)
Turkey (Customs Union)

Negotiating for Trade Agreement
Argentina (negotiating)
Australia (negotiating)
Brazil (negotiating)
Indonesia (negotiating - ASEAN)
India (negotiation stalled - by the UK)

Other
China
Russia
Saudi Arabia (negotiations suspended)
United States

Maybe it's the USA, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia that are seen as the glittering prize that the EU are stopping us doing deals with? Or maybe it's the 15% of global GDP (25% of world trade) which isn't represented by G20 members?

Buteo · 25/10/2018 15:59

Germany seems to manage to export to the US just fine.

People’s Vote Delusion
bellinisurge · 25/10/2018 16:10

Germany, like all EU members, benefits from EU/US agreements. The fact it has products to sell in the US is because .... it makes products US customers want to buy and can do so because the trading arrangement is with the EU.
Which we are leaving. So we have to set up a brand new deal with the US. Who wants to guess whether we will get a better or worse deal?

1tisILeClerc · 25/10/2018 16:31

Please miss, I think I know the answer to this one!!!

indistinct · 25/10/2018 18:52

@DoubleTrouble99
Agree that EU FoM favours EU migration over rest of world and accept that an abundance of cheap labour (native or foreign) likely suppresses wages for low-skilled roles at least to some extent - think there are BoE and LSE studies showing this effect is minimal though. Accept that FoM means that there is a large supply of cheap(ish) foreign labour available to UK businesses - note RoW labour pool is presumably cheaper than EU i.e. minimum wage or less if employer willing to break the law. Agree that with current rules, only a withdrawal from SM (i.e. no-deal or Canada-type deal) would end FoM and return immediate control of immigration policy to UK gov.

Problem is with Brexit as the solution to these issues, both in terms of effectiveness and the balance of costs/benefits. Don't think we can avoid immigration at low-skill end of the market - e.g. UK has aging population that needs care services, UK labour force not likely in short-term to take up agricultural roles (even with wage increases), etc ... Result - immigration continues to happen from RoW (and some EU) thereby continuing to suppress low-skill wages and continuing/exacerbating cultural issues arising from mass migration (suspect many leavers would be more comfortable with EU migration than RoW).

The cost of leaving the SM without some form of low/no friction border (across UK not just NI) will likely result in substantial UK JIT manufacturing & aerospace job-losses (100,000s jobs) at least. Personally think it'll likely be worse with finance, pharma, IT, agriculture, fishing, etc ... all affected adversely in one way or another. Overall effect - big recession and widespread misery for us and most importantly our DC for many years. Moreover, in the longterm, UK will be systemically disadvantaged without benefits of collective bargaining and without the benefits of frictionless access to larger markets such as EU, NAFTA, etc ... most international businesses (inc. UK operations that get big enough) will look to base themselves within these areas. Worth noting, that only these large area trading blocks have sufficient impact on multi-nationals to contain/influence their poor behaviour (e.g. tax avoidance).

EEA/EFTA+CU with staged 10+ year exit roadmap and top-down drive to decouple UK economy from EU would at least avoid deep recession. Better still remain - make common cause with other nations with concerns over EU freedoms - set sensible limits, keep freedoms for our DC within limits, keep UK manufacturing (or even expand it after Brexit is forgotten), retain our IPR and leadership within EU, etc ... Accept that its a big reverse and alot to ask of leavers but better that than knowingly forcing UK DC into a bleak position, no?

bellinisurge · 25/10/2018 20:30

More reasons to like Alan Sugar. So glad he wasn't the "businessman". He seems like a good guy. I disagree with him on lots of things but I respect him.

threetrees · 26/10/2018 04:27

pBird : it may be Trumpian (re. lock up Merkel), but in case you forgot, Trump acutally WON the last US election - ie. is the person chosen for leadership

we could do with someone like that over in the UK right now, instead of these supine polite liberals running the show

threetrees · 26/10/2018 04:33

ironic, how the supposed 'freedom loving democrats' of the left, feel that 'lies' on the Leave side are crimes, yet lies for Remain are perfectly acceptable (re. Osborne and project fear2) - Please expalain that

threetrees · 26/10/2018 04:35

indistinct: no

twofingerstoEverything · 26/10/2018 07:03

ironic, how the supposed 'freedom loving democrats' of the left, feel that 'lies' on the Leave side are crimes, yet lies for Remain are perfectly acceptable (re. Osborne and project fear2) - Please expalain that

Oh dear. Someone doesn't understand that Brexit isn't a left/right issue.

Your comment about needing someone like Trump just exposes you for what you are. We don't need an even more divisive figure in charge at this point in time.There's enough shit-stirring going on within our own government. Not surprised to see you supporting "pussy-grabber" Trump though.

bellinisurge · 26/10/2018 07:26

If you think it's a left/right issue you are not paying attention. The extreme right are disaster capitalists wanting to make money out of chaos (Rees-Mogg's daddy literally wrote a book about it). The left want chaos out of which they hope to emerge triumphant - pretty much the extreme left playbook.

1tisILeClerc · 26/10/2018 08:37

With the suggestion made in the USA that you take your gun with you when you go to the polling stations for their elections, it strongly suggests that 'society' is not in a good place in many parts of the USA.
The leaflets sent to all UK households by the Conservatives before the vote in 2016 was not lying. It said that the UK should remain in the EU.
I would say that it didn't make enough of the advantages of being IN the EU but at the time it was presented it was not trying to counter the outright lies that were told later. It also failed to mention that many of the perceived issues were actually NOT an EU issue at all, immigration, Sovereignty and many of the other 'reasons' some gave for wanting to leave.
Some of the aspects of so called 'Project Fear' have happened already, job losses, etc but the prospect of leaving with no agreements is almost infinitely worse. With the government now actually saying they are considering getting the armed forces involved in distributing essential supplies, surely this is an indication that things ought to be better than this.
Also consider that if the vote had been 'remain', there would have been a mild increase in inflation (the whole world is experiencing this due to other tensions) and the government could have put it's hand into it's pocket and actually spent the £350million on the NHS.
Currently it is spending around £500 Million a week just trying to prepare for Brexit day.

Peregrina · 26/10/2018 08:40

I am quite sure that the extreme left are totally deluded; the right wing, sadly I fear not. My only hope there is that their disaster capitalism will consume them in the end also.

Fouetsage · 26/10/2018 09:34

I still haven't worked out what the remain 'lies' actually were other than the possibility of an emergency budget which the Bank of England were able to avert. Please will someone list the 'remain lies' for me? Seeing the Conservative MP on QT last night made me terrified of the way politics is going in this country; David Davies for PM because we need a brexiteer in charge. The man who has achieved absolutely nothing in 2 1/2 years of negotiations? [bangs head against wall....]

People’s Vote Delusion
Peregrina · 26/10/2018 09:39

There might well have been an emergency budget if Cameron hadn't thrown in the towel immediately.

1tisILeClerc · 26/10/2018 10:35

This Brexit lark is so far reaching that very few have any idea what will happen.
It is like trundling along in your car then (for no deal) everything will be dismantled at once. Ordinarily if a bulb lows or you get a puncture, OK a bit of hassle but a bit of a fix and on you go. With a no deal scenario EVERYTHING is undone at once. So all the bulbs blow. Every nut and bolt comes undone, even the stitching in the seat covers goes and you are left with a pile of 15,000 small parts on the road with none of them connected.
What is almost worse is that the local garage will have closed down so you are left with an expensive pile of bits.
There are still garages on the 'continent' and further afield but you have just spent over 2 years 'pissing them off' with cheap nasty jibes and telling lies about them so willingness to come to your aid might not be forthcoming, or if it does will have a large price tag attached.
I cannot think of 'lies' told by 'Remain' but they were certainly not hot enough to refute the sheer crap that was spouted by 'Leave'.
Saying 'we won't burn your house down' is not as dramatic as a bus of any colour with an aspirational' boost to the NHS, which by many accounts would only take the NHS back to where it should have been if the buggers hadn't been cutting funding beforehand.

indistinct · 26/10/2018 10:37

@threetrees
Why no?
Do you not see the dangers of persisting on our current path? Do you not see the weakness of the UK in negotiations with EU? Do you not agree that no-deal or Canada-type deals without frictionless SM access will be very damaging to UK economy and re-instantiate NI border? Do you not see/agree that current UK government proposal is substantially worse than EEA/EFTA+CU? Do you not agree that many leavers will have justifiably believed in '16 that UK gov could get a good deal (e.g. most of benefits of SM without obligations of FoM) as this is what was promised? Do you not agree that UK will not be offered this by EU (as they've always said)? Do you not agree that we still have an opportunity to correct this situation by pressuring the UK government to revoke A50 or running another referendum? Do you not agree that it would be worse to bullishly press ahead and damage UK population for generations?

Hesta54 · 26/10/2018 10:50

indistinct, if the government knows or thinks all this why is it continuing ? Don't tell me they are rich and it will not effect them, all Mp's are not, They could but a stop to this, why don't they ?

Fouetsage · 26/10/2018 10:57

My MP [Heather Wheeler; nuff said....] has now used my vote against me by saying that 80% of the electorate voted for a pro Brexit party, at the last election, so I now wish I'd voted LibDem [which I felt, at the time, was a wasted vote tactically] as at least it would have been a firm anti Brexit one. Can I just say that Lisa Nandy was amazing on QT last night and gives me hope that there are still some sane, rational MP's out there. Still honouring the referendum result [which was, imo a dishonourable referendum] but saying she still represents the 40% of her constituents who voted remain. There are so many other issues that this country could be devoting time and energy to, and all because Cameron wanted to appease the far right in his party. Well, that didn't go well, did it??