Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/18/brexit-unpalatable-truths-for-dinner-at-eu-summit

The prime minister had optimistically claimed that a deal was in reach at the start of her presentation - only to end with a “cry for help” in which she emphasised the difficulties of her predicament at home, one EU diplomat said. The time was at hand to step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, the leaders agreed. The conditions were not right for a November summit. A December summit was looking like the last opportunity to save the day.

So basically the EU27 have very big doubts that there will be an agreement. It’s getting very scary imo....

The issue of course is the fact she hasn’t managed to control the ERG and the Like despite most of the MP in the HoC wanting the CU.
Her position is too weak at home to be able to agree in anything. They actually even make her look like she is sending desperate help signals towards the EU :(

Woman 💐 I'm sure we'd be good pals if we can meet up, which would be brilliant.
We'd set the world to rights, with other Westministender friends too
I really admire your compassion for the most vulnerable in society

Dreadful shame there is all this effort and all these resources wasted on this Brexshit - to prevent a Tory civil war -
when nearly all the UK's problems stem from the stupidity and arrogance of its own ruling class,
nothing to do with the EU.

May is the classic case of "in office, but not in power."

^The EU will probably stop further negotiations, even if they don't announce it publicly
There's no point, when she can't get any deal through parliament

It might be best if they did announce publicly, despite the hammering they'd get in the UK press,
because the shock of businesses suddenly fleeing the country might concentrate minds in Parliament and Cabinet

They also need to make it perfectly clear to all E27 businesses and orgs who deal with the UK that they must prepare for no deal - as with the UK, some will have been puttingoff the more expensive steps.

Shona Murray@ShonaMurray (EuroNews)

To confirm: Brexit sources say Brussels/Dublin are considering a UK-wide customs backstop which may in the future replace the backstop for Northern Ireland.
It would be negotiated during talks on future relationship. NI backstop still required for WA. #EuCo #brexit @euronews

This is just dressing up the fact that there must be an NI backstop which would last until a future trade deal might replace its function ... or indeed might not, so the original backstop would remain

Sorry if this has already been posted but Guardian looking for views from anyone attending march on Saturday.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/18/tell-us-are-you-taking-part-in-the-peoples-vote-march

Actually it's an invitation to give views even if you are not there but "have strong views about it".

May NOT fulfilling the GFA, because she is NOT treating all NI parties equally,
.... only the one keeping her in office

Darran Marshall@DarranMarshall (BBC politics)

BREAKING

Theresa May has declined to hold a meeting with the leaders of Northern Ireland's four 'remain' parties.
Leaders of @sinnfeinireland, @SDLPlive, @allianceparty & @GreenPartyNI had asked for a joint meeting with the PM.
They represent a majority in the NI Assembly.

Varadkhar immediately agreed to meet them and
‘Irish Times’ poll finds overwhelming majority backs Leo Varadkar’s stance on NI border,
with 72% saying he should stick to his position and not compromise on a backstop

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/taoiseach-should-refuse-to-compromise-on-brexit-voters-say-1.3666980

Thanks Squiggly. Completed.

10
I voted to leave a ‘trading bloc’ (because that’s what is according to these threads - we apparently lost no sovereignty) yet when we try to it appears leaving a simple ‘trading bloc’ is much more difficult.

Yes, leaving a trading bloc is difficult because trade agreements involve regulation, laws, compliance and enforcement. If you think that's 'loss of sovereignty' and that 'loss of sovereignty' is a massive problem that far outweighs the benefits of trading bloc membership, then wait til you start dealing with the US.

Do you think the US will accept any old steel or steel products from the UK without the UK proving that it isn't steel from China, or made from steel that was dumped by China and finished in the UK? Will a trade agreement with the US affect what trade agreements the UK can make with China therefore? Do you think the EU will be happy to import clothing made in the UK out of fabric made in mills manned by 8 year old children in Bangladesh? Problems, problems...

Maybe you fondly imagine trade in the future will consist of some British road warrior hacking through the jungles and offering glass beads or Scotch in return for the right to exploit the vast natural resources the natives had no idea existed, or something equally simple.

BigChocFrenzy

Ireland's position is they want the backstop in the withdrawal agreement as an insurance. But they would prefer that any future trade deal done with the UK means the relationship is so close that the backstop wouldn't be needed (any such trade deal would also be desirable to them for trade reasons.)
So when they say not time limited they mean it should run in the background forever.
BUT they want it to be temporary because a better way of avoiding the border has come along.

Therefore not Time limited but temporary (run in the background forever but hopefully never used).

So, in short, Theresa May told Leo Varadkar everything he wanted to hear.

The House @theHouse_mag
Exclusive: @JohnnyMercerUK suggests his values are no longer aligned with the Tory party, and says there is "absolutely no chance" he would run to become an MP today

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/house/house-magazine/99155/johnny-mercer-%E2%80%9Cim-not-going
Johnny Mercer: “I’m not going to let us go down without a serious fight”
After leaving the military, Johnny Mercer wanted to find a career where he could once more be part of something greater than himself. He found his answer in the shape of politics and the Conservative party. But, more than three years after entering Westminster, the former soldier is reaching breaking point. Disillusioned by what he believes is a sub-par administration, is his very conservatism under threat? He talks to Sebastian Whale

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
This is an extraordinary interview with @JohnnyMercerUK

** Says he wouldn’t vote Tory if he wasn’t an MP,
** Suggests his values are no longer aligned with the party.
** Brands this administration a “shit show”
** Says he would not join it if he was offered a job
When asked how the Johnny Mercer who left the military in 2012 would vote now, @johnnymerceruk said: “I wouldn’t go and vote. "Just being honest, I wouldn’t vote. Of course I wouldn’t, no.”

This is an MP in touch with the electorate!!!!

Well done sir!

What?

Theresa May has declined to hold a meeting with the leaders of Northern Ireland's four 'remain' parties.

Leaders of @sinnfeinireland, @SDLPlive, @allianceparty & @GreenPartyNI had asked for a joint meeting with the PM.
They represent a majority in the NI Assembly.

She really doesn't get it does she?

RDoo "Run in the background for ever"
is permanent, not temporary

Or perhaps she can't be seem to meet with them for fear of annoying Arlene. She could meet them all together though?!

Sorry for divert but this did make me laugh

red I read quite bit about Johny Mercer when he first became an MP, because he had such an unusual background - he'd never supported any party before being selected to run for MP
and he only went into politics because he was disgusted at how UK veterans were abandoned after wars end

He sounded a thoroughly decent man, but I did wonder how he'd cope with the party political grind on m0re mundane issues.
He is also one of those trying to stop the UC rollout

and of course, while still a soldier, he was in the Dove advert, showering !

Says he wouldn’t vote Tory if he wasn’t an MP,

What's stopping him resigning the Tory whip? He could sit as an Independent, still support those Tory policies he agrees with and still represent his constituents.

2Bees
The Times, the FT, the Telegraph, the Guardian, die Welt, Le Monde, the Washington Post, the NY Post, the Irish Times....

A good few from that list plus Irish reddit fora plus The Atlantic and the New York Times here, as well as RTE (Tony Connolly is very relevant).

Also Süddeutsche Zeitung, occasionally the Chicago Tribune, LA Times, Wall Street Journal,.

BigChocFrenzy

RDoo "Run in the background for ever"
is permanent, not temporary

Only active temporarily "unless and until" something better comes along.

Peregina I think he wants to fight for one nation conservatism. Or something. Fuck knows.

Rdoo From what is being said here in Germany and in press releases`;:

Ireland / EU would not accept the backstop being replaced by a trade deal, or by joining the CU, because the Uk could end those any time;

Ireland wants a specific commitment of a permanent backstop, independent of any future trade deal / CU
This would be running in the background, not noticeable, unless / until needed

The "temporary" is just a sop to the DUP / Tory Unionists, but atm the EU / RoI side are saying it would have to be permanent

• at least until the development of the magical technological solution that DD was so keen on.

(don't hold your breath waiting for magic)

I think Johny has discovered that poliics is far more complex and immoral than he had ever imagined.
He apparently had no interest in politics before being selected as an MP

Being probably a very honourable type, he might feel that if he quits the Tory party, then he has to resign and fight a byelection.
Very daunting prospect, witjout any political background or support structure

Also, if he quits, he might be worried about finding another job soon, to feed his family and pay the mortgage

The sheer amount of head-in-sand-Dunning-Kruger-esque arrogant ignorance is a real sight to behold.

So true. I had a similar experince last week when I went to pick up my 3-monthly sack of meds from the pharmacist. As I've been using his shop for years, I thought I'd ask him whether I should be concerned about getting my customary bundle next year. And he just laughed in my face, then very patronisingly said that we're one of the largest buyers of pharmaceuticals in the world, so there's no way supplies could ever be interrupted. Basically I shouldn't worry my little non-expert head about such things.

This seemed both illogical and just a re-hash of "they need us more than ...", so I asked about the government's technical notices and pleas for companies to stock up and the issues with licences, you know, now we're losing the EMA. This produced more condescending bluster, blanket statements that there was no way we'd ever run out of medicines. And then he was fortunately rescued by another customer.

Fuck him. Once we do get over any potential supply problems, I'm taking my business elsewhere.

Incidentally, Hazard, still no further word from my MP re. meds supplies. His "letter to the Health Minister" has obviously been drowned in the rush. And there's me thinking that it's the Health Minister's job to actually answer questions from his government/party colleague. Maybe they're just too difficult, so he'd rather not bother.

Dear God....

twitter.com/Peston/status/1053005808668151809?s=19