Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

I've said before that I'm conflicted.

On the one hand, I think the only way to lance the boil of the British belief in exceptionalism ("Don't they know who we are?" ) and the British Empire mindset is for the UK to leave (whether it's a crashout with No Deal or just a "bad" deal, makes no difference in the long term ) and experience the consequences of no unicorns, no sunny uplands life outside one of world's biggest trading blocs right on our doorstep and the "fantastic" deals that the US, Oz and NZ will impose negotiate with the distressed UK . Maybe, just maybe, some of the Eurosceptics will then understand the value of what we had and then chose to give away.

The hubris, nemesis and catharsis argument. But the EU should only "allow" the UK to rejoin if there has been a radical turn around in opinion: minimum of 70:30 in favour (and over 60% of the electorate) otherwise the whole toxic cycle will continue.

For me, as a Scot, this has the added advantage of bringing forward the probability possibility of Scottish independence.

However, because it is the poorest and most vulnerable in England that will be affected the most (they'll be affected in Scotland too but at least the Scottish Government does its best to mitigate the effects with its "housekeeping" money ), I can't bring myself to actively want this.

But maybe the UK does need to go through this

The hubris, nemesis and catharsis argument. But the EU should only "allow" the UK to rejoin if there has been a radical turn around in opinion: minimum of 70:30 in favour (and over 60% of the electorate) otherwise the whole toxic cycle will continue

Over 70% is insane, there’s no way we would ever get there. A huge number of the electorate just want us to “get on with it” whatever that means. If you show them reality they just shout project fear.

I struggle to see why on Earth so many people want to leave the EU. It’s clearly far from idea but look at the shower leading this country - then look at the opposition

Incidentally, try imagining being a French or German citizen reading the news here for the last two years...

As a French in the U.K.... well let’s say I tend to just keep my thoughts for myself and my (french) parents.
And btw it’s not just the last two years. The kicking started a few years before the referendum as we started the shift of what the word ‘immigrants’ means from asylum seekers to any non EU immigrants to now also include EU citizens. This happened BEFORE the referendum campaign btw.

I'm not talking about the People's Vote - I'm talking about a future vote if we do end up leaving the EU.

We voted to stay in by 67% in favour in the 1st referendum in 1975 the one that the Leave Campaign pretend never happened when they say that the "will of the people" mandate from 2016 is forever so it's not "impossible".

Indeed, there were those in the EEC (as it was called then) who were disappointed that it hadn't been 70+% in favour of staying, as they felt that the question hadn't been fully resolved and the UK as a whole wasn't committed to the being members.

They were right

pretty I tend to agree with you.
I don’t think there is a 70/30 split on staying in the EU now.
There might be one for staying in the CU, as it would be a compromise that both a lot of leavers and a lot of remainders would accept.
Leavers because it’s often what they voted for anyway. And because the No Deal looks quite frightening.
Remainers because any agreement that leaves the U.K. somehow with a foot in the EU will be a win now.
I can’t see anything else actually managing to unite the U.K. again.

The very big issue there is that, if the ‘solution’ actually split the U.K. 50/50, whatever the solution is, it will be a disaster for the U.K. as it will open the gates for years and years of internal fighting (in political parties and within the country itself).

As for the superiority complex... tbh it’s so entrenched that I think it will take at least a generation of reallybreally struggling to finally realise they are not the centre of the world anymore. At what cost will they finally manage to open their yes :(

Like many posters on this thread, I am a dual national. Any loyalty I have towards my non-UK nationality is now telling me that the UK needs to be out of the EU. I wonder how others in a similar situation feel ?

Yes, I think it will require a harsh dose of reality and a generation to change attitudes

And it will take even longer if/when Scotland gains her independence as we are the stronger supporters of the EU. We also have most of the "product" (whisky, oil & gas, forestry, food, water, fish, renewables, software, gaming....) whilst England is mostly finance & services, which aren't normally covered by FTAs.

But there again, if Scotland leaves the UK and rejoins the EU, then the demonstration of difference in growth levels and quality of life might start to convince the nay-sayers

Also a dual national- Irish/British. For the sake of the GFA , I would prefer the UK to find a way to stay in but, the "will of the people" is paramount and I just want it over with.

Rupa Huq MP
‏*@RupaHuq*

Fears of effects of hard Brexit on northern towns - in France! This news + @sadiqkhan on eve of #peoplesvotemarch makes cover of @lemonde Now they’ve seen how badly it’s going here, support for Frexit waning across channel

twitter.com/RupaHuq/status/1054015864553521154

will of the people" is paramount and I just want it over with

That sounds a little bit odd. That's not what you said before.
You support 'brexit' now?

I'm eligible for Irish citizenship so it's easy for me to feel lukewarm about my British nationality. But my kids don't have that escape route. So, no, I don't wish the country to experience a hard dose of reality. Lots in the north has never really recovered from the last Tory govt.

More ERG nastiness, on behalf of the DUP:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-uk-would-extend-transition-period-if-backstop-demand-dropped-1.3670683

Former Brexit minister Steve Baker has put down amendments to a bill that would give senior civil servants more powers to make decisions while the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive remains suspended.

Mr Baker’s amendments would prevent officials from agreeing “that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland in connection with leaving the European Union” without the approval of the Assembly.

Officials would also be forbidden from implementing any new EU obligations that could arise during an implementation or transition period or under a Northern Ireland backstop.

If they are approved when the bill is debated next Wednesday,
the amendments would kill off the backstop because even if the Assembly is restored, the DUP would block any action to implement distinct arrangements for Northern Ireland.

I'm eligible for Irish citizenship so it's easy for me to feel lukewarm about my British nationality. But my kids don't have that escape route. So, no, I don't wish the country to experience a hard dose of reality. Lots in the north has never really recovered from the last Tory govt.

I'm the same, but not at the expense of the well being of my "other" country. Especially since the UK seems to be getting more poisonous by the hour (recent thread on the appalling Ryanair incident) - I'd rather it wasn't exported around the EU by allowing the UK to remain .

On the Poland-Ukraine frontier, ‘frictionless border’ is a joke

and Ukraine actually has a deal with the EU ...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/on-the-poland-ukraine-frontier-frictionless-border-is-a-joke-1.3666645

The surest way to raise a smile on a Polish border guard’s face is to mention Brexitt* buzzwords like “frictionless” and “invisible”.
...
Sitting in his office on Poland’s busiest border with Ukraine, four hours southeast of Warsaw, Cdr Robert Brychlik grins broadly and
shakes his head when asked if an outer EU border can ever be frictionless or invisible.
....
The guards have a two-minute target for checking private traffic – every vehicle is stopped here – but all those two minutes add up.

“Just two hours’ wait today, sometimes it’s three,” says the woman with a tired smile.
...
Cdr Tywoniuk smiles quizzically when talk turns to seamless borders.
Such talk, he makes clear, comes from people who don’t understand why the EU has closed borders like his: so that other EU borders can remain open.

robert shrimsley @robertshrimsley
Tory MP on May in SunTimes: "The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted. She'll be dead soon". What kind of person talks like this?

Sunder Katwala @sundersays
"Supporters of Boris Johnson have been irritated by the surge in Mr Davis's activity, arguing that his time as Brexit Secretary makes him complicit in the current crisis and that he would be 'painfully out of his depth' as Prime Minister".
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6298839/Former-Brexit-secretary-David-Davis-threatens-No-Fly-Zone-EU-planes-UK-airspace.html
Former Brexit secretary David Davis launches the 'Battle of Britain' as he threatens No Fly Zone for EU planes in UK airspace

David Davis today steals a march on Tory leadership rival Boris Johnson by setting out what will be seen as his manifesto for Downing Street – including adopting a much more militant attitude towards Brussels.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb
I think if the 48 letters reached May would probably lose a confidence vote simply because enough people would think "well, if we're going now, let's go", just as 2016 coup against Corbyn was actually 3-4 different coups that essentially went "Oh, god, better launch now".

Tory MPs are v aware that if May survives a confidence vote they can't have another pop until the fag-end of 2019. Think if that fight were to start now enough people would roll the dice rather than risk her holding on.

When you speak to Tory MPs about a no confidence vote, they say "Now? God, no, what a terrible idea. We'd be stuck with her until 2020". I wouldn't bet much on those MPs not deciding getting rid early is better than risking not getting rid at all

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/10/if-theresa-may-does-face-confidence-vote-dont-bet-her-winning-it
If Theresa May does face a confidence vote, don't bet on her winning it
Tory MPs don't want to get rid of Theresa May yet but they might decide getting rid of her early is better than not getting rid of her at all

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
This is view increasingly shared by Tory MPs and non usual suspects in the last week

Noticed a paywall article in the FT suggesting that as Brexit progresses and the UK inevitably becomes more insular, the culture in Westminster is likely to become a lot more cut'n'thrust and less forgiving. Probably a retrograde step for equality and womens rights.

There is, of course, one other certainty about Brexit. It will leave Britain a poorer, inward-looking place - a nation prone to bouts of populism on the streets and blood-letting at Westminster.

If there's any justice, the first victims will be the Brexiteers themselves.

Brexiter language has often been disgracefully violent, especially from senior politicans, who should be more responsible

They regard everyone who doesn't want hard Brexit as a "traitor" and "against the will of the people" / (hedge-funders)
So it's not surprising they don't even exclude their own PM from such vicious verbal attacks

Still, imo she boosted their power by always backing down to them and not condemning their language to others

@PM: When you let other groups be demonised, don't be surprised when your turn comes

PM: When you let other groups be demonised, don't be surprised when your turn comes

Surely we all remember the story of the evil queen when asked what a suitable punishment would be for someone guilty of her crimes ?

Or a more fitting metaphor of being hoist with ones own petard ? The slightly flatulent dimension to translation seems painfully appropriate given the hot air that woman seems to be able to hold.

DG I've just read that AIBU thread about a Ryanair passenger racially abusing an elderly widow.
Horrifying
Bloody outrageous that he wasn't arrested, because Ryanair cba

Anyone want some news to cheer them up?

Sorry, I can't with that, but I have this for you instead:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45931231
Russia nuclear treaty: Gorbachev warns Trump plan will undermine disarmament

Bloody outrageous that he wasn't arrested, because Ryanair cba

Speaks volumes about 2018s social norms. None of it good.

@woman11017 - hell no , I don't support Brexit. But as I have said many times, I don't think it can be stopped - despite the brilliant march yesterday.

I don't support Brexit. But as I have said many times, I don't think it can be stopped - despite the brilliant march yesterday.

But maybe, just maybe, such a march has changed the Brexit we'll get ?