Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

Placemarking.

Could I go to sleep and wake up in twenty years when this is all over please?

red. Thank you.

The last thread filled up before the week was out!

Thank you red

I’m a natural optimist at heart but these threads have kicked the optimism out of me. But that’s a good thing. Means I will get on with prepping, my family is going to need it.

Thanks RTB

Thanks red

Most of the ERG are just in it for the money,
especially what they can get by selling of the remaining bits of UK family silver to the USA

Some hanker after an Anglosphere and want to force a desperate UK to become the 51st state - Trump's ego would like his signature on that big expansion

There are also a few Brexiters that have a fanatical hatred of Irish Republicanism and the GFA, which they regard as shameful surrender.

Gove compared the GFA to giving in to Nazis and paedophiles.
On NI, he is genuinely batshit and, like the DUP, has wanted to destroy the GFA ever since it was signed

So I think maybe half the ERG would give up NI in a pinch, to get a hard Brexit

Ivan Richards recently:

"Various protagonists, from the different sides, are fighting over versions of an EU that do not exist, to achieve outcomes which are undeliverable. "

Thanks for the new thread Red.

Over on Twitter I'm finding the Irish Border account (@BorderIrish) blackly entertaining.

Thanks Red. Civil servant friends report that an increasing number of people are being moved across to "No deal" teams.

thanks as ever red

Civil servant friends report that an increasing number of people are being moved across to "No deal" teams

Oh fuck - I’d better add more chocolate and gin to the shopping list.

Thanks red.

I can't see May doing a U turn, partly because she doesn't, but also the last U - turn she tried failed badly.

As a EU/Brit family I feel particularly vulnerable and am worried that we don't belong anywhere anymore citizens of nowhere. In darker moments I can't help but wonder if /when the UK experiences significant hardship post Brexit how people from the EU who remain here will be treated by fellow citizens, for example when seeking health care or competing to obtain scarce food and medicines. And if there is no way of leaving the island due to grounded flights and boats..... it's a little dystopian

On this cheerful note, I will start stock piling and other essentials tomorrow. Thank you for a new thread.

The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) was currently defeating about 10 attacks every week, it said.

Most of the attacks were carried out by state-sponsored hackers employed by hostile nations, it added.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45863953

Hope the UK is up to the job come March 2019.

I'm so confused about the timeline to the Barnier story, but this is from FT tonight:

^Barnier open to extending Brexit transition by another year
In return, Theresa May must accept ‘two-tier’ backstop to avoid an Irish border^
www.ft.com/content/6582b8ce-d175-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6

WoodenCupCake Just been in touch with an EU lady in local group. This is absolutely doing her head in. The personal toll of all this is immense.

This has been a serious misunderstanding on the UK side from the beginning:

Under A50, the WA was NOT intended to say much about future trade deals

The WA is just to settle the mundane housekeeping side of exiting the EU:
expats rights, settling up accounts, bills, special issues like the NI border

Of course the EU won't talk trade deal until the WA has been signed off; the WA is only intended to - if feasible - outline a framework for the future trade relationship

Even the serious papers don't seem to realise this:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-eu-summit-uk-talks-collapse-negotiations-a8586201.html

"The 27 EU leaders will not even consider a trade deal with Britain at the “moment of truth” EUU* summit in Brussels tomorrow,
following the collapse of talks on the Irish border this weekend.

The shock revelation, confirmed by senior EU diplomats familiar with preparations for the meeting, shows the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit as Theresa May travels to the EU capital in a bid to save her project."

Sometimes I think it would have been better if Boris Johnson had become PM in 2016. Surely the whole Brexit debacle would have imploded by now - no excuses with a Brexiteer in charge.

Obviously I have had a couple of glasses of wine this evening and will be more rational tomorrow.

woman The EU has no real problem extending the transition indefinitely
because from the EU side it is basically like having their cake and eating it !

They have all the advantages ot the UK being in the EU wrt trade, budget contributions, v little disruption
without having to put up with the UK vetoing / hindering EU progress in the heads of govt meeting
or having to put up with Farage and UKIP in the EP

They have the necessary time to complete decoupling of their supply chains etc from the UK, without noticeable pain

Even better, since uncertainty over the final trade deal will remain for the years of transition, more and more UK business will move gradually to the EU

Also some non-EU countries won't agree to roll over their EU deals for the UK, so some EU firms may pick up business there too

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
NEW DUP Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson was invited to the weekly meeting of the European Research of Tory MPs tonight and he was hailed like a hero, 60-70 Tory MPs and peers present. Deafening desk banging and applause. "He looked slightly embarrassed," says an observer. 1/2

... Jacob Rees-Mogg joked about how glad the Government whips would be to see such close DUP/Tory co-operation. Sammy Wilson made a short speech and stressed that the DUP is - like the ERG - against the UK being kept in a customs union after #Brexit. 2/2

Labour are backing John Bercow despite concerns in the Dame Laura Cox report. Emily Thornberry, the shadow Foreign secretary, tells @SkyNews just now: "I think that this is absolutely not the time to be changing speaker."

Kate Hoey @ katehoeymp
I think,like many others who don’t want to go public that this is absolutely the Right Time to change Speaker.@christopherhope The integrity of Parliament is what matters

Ffs they are all transparent. Hoey and Mann the two Labour Leave rebels want Bercow gone not because of bullying but because of Brexit. Equally that's why Eagle and Thornberry are prepared to defend the Indefensible. Its got fuck all to do with the contents of the report.

Jess Phillips @jessphillips
Tonight alone I have spoken to, offered love and support to three different women working in and around politics who have been abused and mistreated by both individuals and the systems in place. They all deserve time and a place better than me to turn to.

Just... Arrggh. Pricks. Everyone.

Adam Fleming @adamfleming
Ok I’ve now heard that @MichelBarnier said EXPLICITLY today that the concept of an extended transition/implementation period was floated with the U.K. but went nowhere. I’ve also heard he mentioned IMPLICITLY that it was discussed and not agreed. Welcome to my life.

And the U.K. side says we journalists have underestimated the importance of the fact that the EU has acknowledged the possibility of a U.K.-wide temporary customs arrangement. While EU sources suggest we underestimate the coinditions that would come with it. (2)

I shall attempt to unpick all of this on @BBCr4today tomorrow. Wish me luck. (3)

And BTW loads of member states think the transition period will have to be extended at some point anyway but not now. (4)

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7510844/brexit-rebels-back-theresa-may/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
PIZZA IN OUR TIME Brexit rebels give Theresa May a big slice of support as ‘Pizza Cabinet’ give her their support
When the full Cabinet met, former leadership rival Ms Leadsom told Mrs May, to cheers around the table: 'I want to make it clear that I’m not resigning

One frustrated Cabinet minister told The Sun last night: “We’re the Cabinet – what on earth makes you think we decide stuff?

“Nobody in No10 wants us to make a decision at the moment, because we’re not at the abyss yet.

“We will be by next month though, and that will start focussing minds.”

No10 sources also last night played down hopes of any break through tonight when Mrs May addresses other EU leaders directly.

Instead, the Cabinet unified around the PM’s decision to halt any deal that committed Britain to a never-ending customs union as a backstop option to keep the Irish border open.

But there was a long debate on how to ensure the backstop customs union membership is temporary.

Cheerful.

That's the point I was making in the last thread: that the problem is that Withdrawal Agreement is being called a negotiation when. It. Is. Not.

It would better be described as a Statement of Account.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6283963/amp/Hunt-warns-Boris-Theresa-risk-derailing-Brexit.html?__twitter_impression=true
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt fires stark warning to Boris Johnson to back Theresa May or face 'real danger' of the Brexit he campaigned for being 'derailed altogether'

Jeremy Hunt last night warned Boris Johnson and Cabinet Brexiteers they must back Theresa May ‘to the hilt’, as ministers were told of a potential £30billion ‘no deal’ divorce bill.

In an outspoken intervention, the Foreign Secretary pointed the finger specifically at his predecessor whose posturing he said had created ‘a real danger’ that Brexit will be ‘derailed altogether’. As the Prime Minister flies to Brussels for a crunch summit today, Mr Hunt said now was the time to unite behind the Prime Minister, adding: ‘We owe it to her to be rock solid in our support as she battles for Britain’.

And in a message to EU leaders, Mr Hunt urged them not to repeat the ‘mistake’ they made with David Cameron during his attempted re-negotiation of Britain’s EU member when they failed to give enough ground and the country voted to leave.