Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

Greg Hands @GregHands
Just asked in the Commons on how Universal Credit is helping record numbers into work - and is forecast to help 200,000 more. Unemployment last this low when I was 9 years old. #ToryDelivery

Rachel Wearmouth @REWearmouth
Frank Field says Universal Credit is driving women in Birkenhead to prostitution. McVey says to tell them the UK has "record job opportunities"

Just got a You gov survey all about Brexit and how I think it will affect the country. Anybody else?

Sadly not. Mine was about attitudes to food/eating. Slightly more interesting than the usual TV & radio questions though. There was one Brexit related question thrown in at the end which asked who I thought would concede most in the negotiations; EU, UK, both, neither. I answered UK (although I suspect it will be sold to us as EU concessions).

I wonder if the RoI would have another referendum on reclaiming the North again - they only gave up their historical claim because of the GFA and if the UK is reneging ...

Hasn’t the U.K. already reneged by getting into bed with the DUP?

Record job opportunities in prostitution. Handy

Richard Hall @_RichardHall
"Tell journalist nothing" — email from an MP, mistakenly sent to me, in response to questions I had sent.

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Unless I'm missing something, I haven't seen a single political response yet to the damning Cox inquiry into the treatment of parliament staff, which contains some of the most shocking allegations possible about MPs and House staff....

Cox says there is a culture of “deference and silence” in Parliament that “actively sought to cover up abusive conduct”. Let's see if anyone does anything at all today to suggest they don't want that to continue. I won't hold my breath.

Didn't the DWP have to be stopped (after it had started doing so) from sanctioning women who refused jobs working for Sex Lines?!

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Government appears to have pulled tonight’s business on a crime bill - for fear of Tory revolt

It was due to be the Offensive Weapons Bill, the issue was a rebellion on high proper rifles. Thought to be around 30 Tory rebels tho that fig unverified.

It would be understandable to worry about the consequences of losing a vote at this moment

Here we go...

we have made progress in the last few weeks. sounds friendly and positive generally. tone much better so far than that last speech.

waiting for the but....

says there is a need for a backstop.

still no but yet.

heres the but

two problems.

You're right, peregrina I often get confused about Switzerland, because its relationship with the EU is complicated - defined by a maze of bilateral treaties.

Despite another of Hannan's "brilliant" wheezes, the EU has vowed never to repeat such a relationship, because of the sheer effort of updating all the bilaterals whenever something in the EU changes

Also, these all took about 20 years to negotiate - between 2 organised knowledgeable parties - and the UK exonomy is even more complex than Switzerland's.

I like this diagram, showing who belongs to the EU, EFTA, CU, EEA, Schengen, as well as the main GDPs.

no time for uk wide backstop, so eu demanding a backstop to the backstop. which eu says has to be border in the irish sea.
May says its unlawful to agree to even if temporary for a couple of weeks.

The more often I hear May mention "our precious union" , the more I know she sees the writing on the wall is rattled

....on a childish literary note, does anyone else hear/see her saying, "My precioussssssssss"?

Must have a TEMPORARY backstop. But must be temporary and never in the irish sea.

So this seems to be the only thing there is now a problem on.

But in principle says there HAS to be a backstop or there will be no deal. Which will please the EU.

I'd say this is largely positive. The tone was ok. And May said a lot of nice stuff about the EU.

ERG will hate it. Of course.

It's unlawful to give a £1bn bung to another party to stay in office and to ignore murders by military / police during the Troubles, as they also demanded

Is the UK-wide backstop just staying in the EU a bit longer?

Temporary and not in the Irish Sea = back at square 1

because Arlene refuses any backstop meaning additional checks between GB and NI, even if they are at mainland ports, well away from the Sea

The only improvement is in May's tone
Impasse atm

No, it's not staying in the EU at all
It's NI staying in the SM, with GB+NI both staying in a CU with the EU

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
May - 'this is the time for cool, calm heads to prevail'
May 'taken together the shape of a deal and the terms of our exit are now clear' and 'we have made progress on N Ireland' but.....
May - 'two problems remain, first EU says there is not time to work out detail of UK wide solution so they still require a 'backstop to the backstop' and they want this to be the NI solution they have previously proposed'
May 2. 'I want to be able to look British people in the eye and say this is a temporary solution' - 'I'm clear we are not going to be trapped permanently in a single customs territory'
^May 'I do not believe the UK and the EU are far apart' - EU friendly language, so far....
May 'I continue to believe a negotiated deal is the best outcome and I continue to believe it is possible'

Good Cop Bad Cop routine?

Raab gets to look big and mean and in control. May gets to look tough to the right crowd. Then she's just done a nice good cop part which will also play well with moderates.

But yes, no more substance.

Can't say its anymore than theatre.

At least that wasn't cringeworthy theatre

Government appears to have pulled tonight’s business on a crime bill - for fear of Tory revolt

As predicted by "project fear". The HoC will simply stop working if we vote Leave.

From the Guardian blog:
May says the EU has agreed to consider a UK-wide backstop. The EU’s original backstop plan was Northern Ireland-specific.