Reasons to remain and reasons to leave

[MyNameIsArthur]

I am hoping this thread can be constructive, respectful and insult free on both sides and to be informative.

I would like to hear everyone's views on why they think it important to remain or leave. I want to hear what the positives and negatives are for remain or leave, in the short, medium and long term in your opinion.

Also, if leave will definitely happen, then what do you think would be the best deal we should try for? What future relationship would you like with the EU?

Arthur if there is no possible need for contingency plans why spend so much money on them ?

Ah but they said that they didn't give any thought...

Just stop there

"The referendum i believe for many was about a chance to " stick it to the man" and no wonder when so many people are disenfranchised and struggling."
I think this is the crucial point. People weren't really voting for Brexit. They were voting because it was an opportunity to register a protest-many people feel ignored by the democratic process. They feel that, even if they do vote, nothing changes. In this vote, they felt that something would actually happen. It was a rare chance to have influence.

I agree Bertrand. As for MakeaHouse - do they really hate the EU so much that they are prepared to see the futures of two generations blighted? I suspect that five years ago they wouldn't even have given the EU a thought. Let's hope for their sakes that, if the UK crashes out, we don't see them come on here whining in five years time about how all their family has emigrated, and they never see the grandchildren.

I found it an absolutely appalling attitude - as appalling as our politicians who don't mind how much the poor and sick are kicked in the teeth, as long as their wealth is protected.

Was MakeaHouse a troll, just here because Brexit isn't going well? I hadn't seen the name before.

The leaflet that was stuffed through letterboxes at great expense before the vote essentially said the UK should remain. It's observations, as printed were truthful but with a need for brevity it didn't really hammer the message home. It also didn't mention the severe issues such as a possible border between Ireland and NI.
Maybe there should have been a final sentence on the leaflet saying that out of the CU and SM the UK will be 'stuffed' (which is now becoming apparent).

But leaving the Single Market wasn't the plan. Daniel Hannan opined that "no one was talking of leaving the single market"", and supporting it was a Tory manifesto commitment in 2015.

Now why those leavers who voted Leave on the strength of these "commitments" aren't more angry than they are, or are turning their anger on Remainers, when it's their own side which let them down, is beyond me.

Peregrina, why am a troll just because you haven't seen my name before... I have only recently joined? Bit confused by your logic...

Since Makeahouse isn't a troll, maybe he/she/it would like to come up with a really good, or even not so good reason how leaving is going to benefit the UK.
Bearing in mind that 'soundbites' are not allowed, and you have to show your working.

@MyNameIsArthur
You cannot say it will go pear shaped. You can say in your opinion it will go pear shaped.

With respect to no deal we can predict with high confidence that the EU will enforce border checks thereby realising alot of the worst economic impacts on JIT manufacturers and EU exporters. With Canada type deals, the same will be true after the transition period. Both of these are high-confidence 'pear-shaped' outcomes that affected businesses will need to plan-around/react to with effects ranging from increased costs to whole business/plant closures.

I don't think these results are opinion; the EU is legally required to enforce border checks on 3rd countries and everything else flows from that. This is why the UK people need to push for remain or v. soft brexit (EEA/EFTA+CU).

It sounds like you are a responsible leaver what is your own preferred type of deal (apologies if you've already mentioned it haven't RTFT) ?

I thought only a troll could say, that they didn't mind the country not seeing any benefit for 50 odd years. That's not just my children's lives blighted, it's the thought that my grandson might be a grandparent himself before we see any benefit. May, Johnson, Farage and all the other sorry crowd will be long gone.
It made me think of the Irish famine - it takes generations to recover.

Somethings like BMW bringing forward its maintenance shut down to early April are fact, not opinion. All done without consulting the staff, and to hell with any inconvenience to the people concerned.

@Peregrina

Good-point. Businesses are already contingency planning for expected disruption in Apr '19 by deliberately ceasing production at the switch-over point. Evidence that this is not opinion.

I personally voted to leave through hell or high water.

Why?

@Peregrina + leavers + lurkers
...the country not seeing any benefit for 50 odd years
Agree that waiting ~50 years for any benefit is not acceptable (2+ generations of UK DC economically disadvantage). Moreover don't see any reason to expect any benefit after 50 years. EU provides collective bargaining/action benefits for trade-deals and in other international interactions. How is the UK going to improve on these benefits?
It's not acceptable to throw 2 generations of children under the proverbial economic bus with no justifiable expectation of improvement beyond that.

Leave voters - please note - how is this analysis wrong? If its not wrong, you should help push for remain or soft-brexit (EEA/EFTA+CU). Write to your MP, march, share your story of how you came to realise that leaving via no-deal or Canada+++ is not the right option for the UK, help turn this thing around ...

MynameisArthur. When you say that these are just contingencies and we don't know what will happen, you sound like you still believe the "we have had enough of experts" line from Michael Gove, or "they are just wrong forecasts" from IDS.
It baffles me why you can believe these charlatans but not believe the heads of the NHS, all trade bodies particularly autos, pharmas and finance, most CEO's who rely on JIT manufacturing, and anybody who isn't a nutty evangelical unionist Christian in NI.
We have already lost 2% of GDP growth from what we would have enjoyed I.e. 60billion and our current divorce will cost a minimum of 40billion not accounting for a penny of tariffs. So we know it's shit already, it's just how much shittier it gets which is either really bad or catastrophic. It is easy to blame Cameron or TM but we also have to ask questions of the more sinister motives (racism, left wing protectionism, disaster capitalists) of leave voters who chose not to believe the experts, instead crying "project fear!" And "we won get over it." As a peacetime country we have already never lost so much money, credibility, business and we may never get them back.

Maybe leaving will give UK and eu an opportunity to improve?

I think in reality what will happen is that UK will continue to blame others for its home-grown problems and eu to not react to changing political landscape and concerns.

In the end nothing will change except rich will be richer and poor will be poorer.

@SisterOfDonFrancisco
Maybe leaving will give UK and eu an opportunity to improve?
Wish you were right; sadly see signs of the opposite. UK shows signs of becoming a live ultra-liberal economic experiment under current regime or a live isolationist/anti-globalist/semi-socialist experiment under the primary alternative. EU seems to be looking to entrench/speed-up level of integration that lead to UK leave vote and rising levels of discontent in much of EU population (i.e. mainly evidenced by rise of right-wing/anti-EU movements - note Brexit appears to have stemmed this rise - UK is the lesson).

EU is a substantially UK construct; UK introduced and helped build the single market and 4 freedoms. UK people helped draft rights, laws, treaties etc ... UK has been a positive influence on EU in its support for differentiation of states etc ... Why should we walk away from what we've built? Why shouldn't we redouble efforts to shape EU? Why do we accept/vote-for UKIP MEPs who don't engage in EP but only seek to disrupt/destroy? Better to turn it around and actively engage - everyone vote for MEP elections, follow EU news more closely, change our attitude.

Apologies for double post not sure what happened.

In the end nothing will change except rich will be richer and poor will be poorer.

I am glad that after the war, seeing the destruction and loss of life that this caused, and the deprivation of the 1930s before then, that there were significant numbers of people who were prepared to work to build a better more equal society.

I think it would be sensible for another referendum to be held.
See you on the 20th October march then, Arthur?

Bought myself a copy of John and Sally Seymour's Self sufficiency yesterday from the charity shop, might come in useful

Used to love watching 'A good life'

Or The good life

I used to have a copy of John and Sally Seymour's book, back in the late seventies, early 80s. I parted company with him, when he said that they had a magnetic soap holder from their non-self sufficient days, which was wonderful. But if not, an old tobacco tin with holes punched in would serve as a soap dish. I thought that was being a bit idiotic.

Sorry, derailing a little there. All ready for the march now - my train tickets and EU flag arrived the other day.