Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

Well the Today prog today a real festival of remoaning!

1. people most impacted by Brexit will be less well educated working class men - who are more likely to have voted Leave, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies
2. JH spluttering and incredulous when informed by experts from the aviation industry that yes, planes might not be able to fly because certification would be invalid
3. Irish Foreign minister making it clear that the UK govt had actually signed up for the backstop in December, even though they don't like it now - and that the Irish govt sees the integrity of the single market paramount

Singing Leavers are so desperate for good portents that they’re clinging to the Unilever story and it probably seems bigger in their minds than it is, blocking out the other 90% of bad news.

An interesting viewpoint here:

There is a solid argument that the decision to leave was not made in accordance with our constitutional requirements, so therefore the A50 notice is void.
The fact that it's all going tits up is a consequence of the unconstitutional nature of the decision & clear evidence for it.

mobile.twitter.com/Hairyloon/status/1047633763440713728

Hester, well now they have blue passports and Unilever. Plus, of course, a lovely street party in 2022. It’s all going swimmingly

There is a solid argument that the decision to leave was not made in accordance with our constitutional requirements, so therefore the A50 notice is void..

But who has the will and power to do anything about it?

Peregrina

If folk start killing each other again in ni what would you propose as the lesser evil? Sit back and let them get on with it or send troops in to keep the two sides apart?

But this is all conjecture - in the context of Brexit ni is just another opportunity for remainers and the eu to delay and prevaricate. It is a stooge issue for those who want to halt the Brexit process

Singing I’m not an expert, and apparently the U.K. doesn’t have a written constitution (which is a problem in itself) but the fact that it was such a poorly thought-through and unplanned referendum, makes it less likely to succeed.

They’re trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. Didn’t anyone - of any political party - think of the Irish situation before they assented to the vote?

They’re trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. Didn’t anyone - of any political party - think of the Irish situation before they assented to the vote?

It’s hard to conclude anything other than they didn’t think about it, or that they didn’t care about it. I imagine, given that when he promised the vote he thought he would be able renege on it and blame the LibDems, there’s an awful lot Cameron didn’t even think about.

Didn’t anyone - of any political party - think of the Irish situation before they assented to the vote?
For that you at least need the feeling that NI is part of the U.K., important enough to take into consideration.

Seeing the lack of knowledge about NI within political circles/ministers etc... I diubtbthis was the case.
Also maybe a case of English arrogance too...

What would I do? Scrap Brexit and then the GFA is not endangered. But I suspect that there is already too much damage done, and trust in Westminster has been broken.

At the very least, honour the backstop agreement which May's Government made back last December. (The one which Johnson has now decided he didn't understand when he agreed to it.)

The Unilever situation is different to most others in that it always had dual headquarters. They have only said they are not pulling out of the UK, but it doesn't say that they can't prioritise efforts in the EU.

It is unfortunate that 10degrees still has no regard for many in NI. In parts the PSNI are not effective and an alternative 'justice' system is operating NOW. Kids who may have got into trouble drug dealing or other offenses are taken to have their knees shot out. A TV report recently suggested it averages around one a person week. If you think this is acceptable and would like it to be the situation where YOU live which is also part of the UK then keep mocking.

Peregrina

Oh the irony that you use ‘stop brexit’ and ‘trust in westminster’ in the same paragraph...

Leclerc

Don’t put words in my mouth just because, like the majority, I disagree with you over Brexit

If I were a large firm, if I could wait on large scale redundancies I would. Everything suggests a role back on workers rights is imminent. I'd relocate key staff I needed and wanted if possible or it was essential to the overall functioning of the business.

If I was a multinational, who thought relocating to Europe would ultimately be better - think car manufacturers - I'd consider the strength of the pound and whether it was likely to weaken thus making redundancy cheaper for the company as a whole. I'd also think about how a tory government might want to weaken union power/workers rights and how that might make mass redundancy cheaper.

Does it make sense to close down Unilever in the UK right now, in this context? Not really.

Those jobs that have left the UK are the skilled essential ones. Or have been out of immediate financial necessity.

Those who use Unilever to shout, project fear should bare this in mind.

I was at a conference the other day where the head of indirect tax of a major corporate group with operations in the UK (from a group who's products would crop up in your weekly shopping basket on a regular basis-not Unilever though) spoke about there preparations for brexit.

They too have multiple basis of operations and whilst they will be retaining there UK presence, they are looking at the plausibility of shifting certain manufactoring lines to Europe.

Mostly because of not just the cost of the tarrifs, but the additional administrative burden of identifying the correct tariff rate. This needs to be reviewed every time a recipe is changed, and changes frequently enough without this.

And there simply aren't enough customs specialists in the UK - as there hasn't needed to be which means they can command an extremely high salary.

This is before you even consider the actual cost of the tarrifs...

Due to the nature of the conference brexit was mentioned a lot. Disappointingly many of the speakers expressed frustration with the Irish situation - one even saying 'why does it even matter? Its not like a lot of goods pass through the Irish border anyway...'

This was from an individual actually involved in the brexit negotiations.

Thing is with Unilever or any other large company deciding to stay: I know it is difficult for Leavers to understand, but I live here too - therefore the entire point is that I don't want the economy to go down the pan, jobs to be lost and shortages of food/medicine.

I wasn't sure if I was becoming paranoid, but the DUP seem to be reverting openly to the old Unionist triumphalism and keeping down the Catholics

Not paranoid at all. Their raison d'être has always been keeping down the Catholics, and they're barely hiding it at all. The 'blood red' comments and all the rest brings their words into line with their actions; such as the bonfires with effigies they've joyously attended.

It is a stooge issue
Are you on glue, 10degrees? Or just hard of thinking? Maybe you needed to study a bit more Norse lesbian mythology.

The elements

The trouble is I’m not sure you’re believed. Based on countless threads like this i strongly suspect you and the other mumsnet remainiacs would rather it did go pear shaped. Because the suspicion lingers that you value membership of the eu project more than the success of your own country

Somerville

Ni is a useful stooge issue for you

Like chlorinated chicken or any of the other nonsense on these threads ad nauseum

one even saying 'why does it even matter? Its not like a lot of goods pass through the Irish border anyway...'

This was from an individual actually involved in the brexit negotiations.

Which brings me me back to the total lack of understanding of the NI/RoI situation as well as the total arrogance of the English towards NI.
No wonder what the EU sees as essential is seen as mere inconvenience here...

It's not a stooge issue it's my fucking home.

10degrees you've made your cavalier attitude to the people of NI very clear on previous threads so I have no idea why you're pretending to give a damn now.

Based on countless threads like this i strongly suspect you and the other mumsnet remainiacs would rather it did go pear shaped. Because the suspicion lingers that you value membership of the eu project more than the success of your own country

My heart bleeds that I'm poorly regarded and disbelieved by TruePatriots like yourself because I haven't expressed the correct Patriotic ParrotWords. Look, I'm weeping 😂

Because the suspicion lingers that you value membership of the eu project more than the success of your own country

10 could you explain how you reached the conclusion that leaving the EU will make the UK a sucess.

I'm not talking about sound bites here, I'm intertested in facts.

What improvements will there be that weren't possible whilst in the EU?

How will any restrictions on trade with our closest geographical neighbours be overcome?

It's precisely because I value the success of my own country that I voted to remain.

DUP seem to be reverting openly to the old Unionist triumphalism and keeping down the Catholics

I think to many Nationalists there's no 'reverting' about it: it's business as usual, just that they sense an opportunity to destabilise the GFA which pre referendum and GE didn't openly exist

Welcome to @Dadaist who's made some very elegant points on an earlier Second Referendum thread, good to see you!