Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

DG I see no indication that the EU would accept the UK without a genuine massive shift in UK public opinion. So say 70% support for Remain required

Er, my point entirely. But that needs to start with a new government, surely ?

In unrelated (but I'm sure it will matter ) news, looks like Patisserie Valerie are going ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45805647

I wonder if we could persuade a few Brexiteers it's the start of Brexit ?

The sad thing is that May has ruled out the EEA and EFTA, which would probably have satisfied a good many Leavers and the more moderate Remainers. But the FoM is the tricky bit, and however they try to pretend it wasn't an anti-immigrant vote, this would not be a sticking point unless it was so.

Didn't the Patisserie Valeria owner vote Leave? I have no sympathy whatever for wealthy Leave voters in cases like this. It does sound as thought HMRC might have uncovered some sort of fraud, though.

Yes, I feel for the staff. Even the Leave voters, because as Hammond said, no one voted to be poorer. Unless they are Leave voters crowing about Remoaners etc., then in that case it's tough luck.

Pat Val's used to be really good until they sold out.
Tried it again recently and found a ceramic nail in my cream cake. Never went back.

But the FoM is the tricky bit, and however they try to pretend it wasn't an anti-immigrant vote, this would not be a sticking point unless it was so.

That's the really sore bit for Europeans. That the country would rather shoot itself in the foot than have them. It also implies that they were only ever tolerated because the UK had to let them in. Never mind that non EU migration (well within successive governments' power to control) has consistently been higher and is still growing. But no, FOM is the source of all ills...

Usual scapegoat/ diversion bullshit...

Yes, I ate there in Edinburgh recently, and it was terrible. Would never eat there again.

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/10/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-final-weeks-of-brexit
Everything you need to know about the final weeks of Brexit in five minutes

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
More nerdier westminster watchers than me (and that’s saying something) pointing out DUP abstained in vote on agriculture bill tonight - whether deliberate point or coincidence, reminder they can directly and immediately show displeasure with govt

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
The game of Brexit bluff has just intensified: No10 have countered the DUP's threat to vote down the Budget by insisting it is no longer a confidence measure under the FTPA. In other words - go on, we dare you.
No10 sources also insist it would be a clear breach of the Tory-DUP confidence and supply agreement; ie, we'll have our £1bn back then.
Interestingly: the DUP have just abstained in a vote on the Agriculture Bill. Expected to vote with the Govt. No defeat, but a first show of force.

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
BREAKING: Downing Street insists that losing a vote on the Budget would not be a resigning matter for the PM. Spokesman says: “The Fixed Terms Parliament Act sets out the circumstances for a confidence vote.”

Michel Barnier's Zen Brexit

He also details the existing checks between NI and the UK and draws examples of the checks between SPain & the Canary Islands

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barniers-zen-brexit/

In tone and substance, it represented a remarkable level of outreach by the bloc’s chief negotiator, who insisted that
he would fulfill his duties to the end with “serenity, without any spirit of revenge, without any aggression, with a lot of respect for a major country that will remain our ally and partner.”
< I wish the UK had someone like him >

It was no doubt a jarring letdown for U.K. newspapers that in recent weeks have proclaimed EU leaders to be “dirty rats” and accused them of humiliating May by rejecting her proposal for the future EU-U.K. relationship.
...
"First, Brexit was not our choice. It is the choice of the UK.
Our proposal tries to help the UK in managing the negative fall-out of Brexit in Northern Ireland, in a way that respects the territorial integrity of the UK.

Second, our proposal limits itself to what is absolutely necessary to avoid a hard border: customs procedures and the respect of EU standards for products.

It does not include measures on free movement of people, services, healthcare or social and environmental policy.
But the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland will continue as today.

And yet, our proposal gives Northern Ireland benefits that no part of a third country enjoys.
In particular continued access to the Single Market for goods and continued benefits from the EU free trade agreements."

more nerdier!!! What is the world coming to.

Of dear forgot the ? Silly me.

Well, that was what I posted upthread - glad the BBC & the govt caught up !

The FTPA means the DUP can vote down the budget as a hardball tactic, knowing there can't be a GE unless the requirements laid down for this in the FTPA are fulfilled.

If only the DUP were thinking of NI prosperity:

Belonging to the SM and the UK markets could give NI a great eonomic boost - some firms might relocate there, to have access to both markets

Ian Dunt's piece is again interesting, but this bit stood out for me:

Imagine two countries have to produce phones to the same standard, but one can make workers labour for hours on end with no legal restrictions. It's going to find it easier and cheaper to make the phones. This is why the US is concerned about wages in Nafta negotiations. There are similar issues with things like intellectual property.

Yes, so we either go for quality at a higher cost or we got for a pile 'em high and sell them cheap approach. Well, there is a reason why my kitchen is full of German appliances - it's because I find them reliable. Think of other British industries e.g. how cars used to be! So we go for the cheap option - but we haven't got the large youthful workforces of the south east Asian countries, so we are not going to be able to compete with them. We would end up somewhere in the middle, and not compete with either!

As for Theresa May forcing a no deal through - the whole idea makes me shudder, but I took some comfort from the fact that she would have to pass legislation to secure the status of EU citizens in the UK. Except, would she bother to honour that commitment?

As for the comments - Driving through a no-deal Brexit would be political suicide for that party for a generation - this is about the only crumb of comfort to me. If I never saw a Tory Govt in my lifetime, I would not shed any tears.

May doesn't have to force a no-deal through,
because no-deal is the automatic conclusion to A50 unless there is a deal
So she only has to keep dithering / being stubborn until it's too late for a deal

Very possibly she'll keep trying to keep the Tory party together, maybe misjudge how late she can leave it and we'll have an accidental crash-out, rather than an intended one

Parliamemt's right to be heard, to have a vote etc is pretty nebulous
They can't force the govt to do anything; they can only really block things

I'm still playing catch up but assume this has been analysed already?

I don't think I quite twigged that more than a dozen countries including the USA,China, Japan, Canada, Brazil and they opposed both the EUs proposed modification to its WTO commitments and our plan to replicate the EU’s WTO trade terms?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/countries-reject-eu-u-k-plan-to-shape-post-brexit-trade-at-wto

_ Hillary Clinton: 'Brexit could be biggest self-inflicted wound in history'_

Yes, some of us fear that too - Argentina here we come ?
She was speaking at Queen’s University, NI:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/10/hillary-clinton-brexit-biggest-self-inflicted-wound

The Telegraph says "Theresa May will on Thursday ask her Brexit “war Cabinet” to agree a backstop plan that would keep Britain in a customs union with Brussels until a permanent trade deal can be agreed.

British and EU negotiators are understood to have agreed in principle to an all-UK backstop plan to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland that would remove the final major obstacle blocking a withdrawal agreement."

It must mean that NI stays in the single market (because how would Barnier agree otherwise?), so the DUP will vote against it - so it comes down to Labour...

Well, Corbyn. You really blew that one.

paywall link

Interesting... www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/10/pro-remain-tory-mps-will-form-group-vote-down-may-brexit-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other