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Brexit

Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 03/10/2018 22:39

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

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IrenetheQuaint · 04/10/2018 17:43
Wine
DoctorTwo · 04/10/2018 18:08

I'm convinced that in the event of a 'No Deal' Brexit the car manufacturers and their British based suppliers will just up and leave. It just doesn't make sense for them to stay here and have to jump through hoops, it'll be cheaper in both the short and long term to get out. That's about 250000 jobs, mostly well paid, that will go.

But that's ok, the thieving lying arseholes who got us into this shitfest will be alright.

Peregrina · 04/10/2018 18:09

We have just, minutes ago, heard from the Court of Justice of the European Union. It has granted our request for expedition.

I would dearly love to see a Scottish action scupper Brexit. It would serve May right for ignoring the Scottish result.

Mrsr8 · 04/10/2018 18:12

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Mrsr8 · 04/10/2018 18:13

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RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 18:30

Estate agent has been on to us today asking us to drop the price on our house again.

Other estate agent locally currently going on a rebranding exercise to stress its customer service levels.

House sales well down on last year. Chains collapsing left right and centre. Sold prices well below listed prices. Houses still on sale being slashed (there's one that started off in April at £435k and is now asking for offers over £350k).

EVERYTHING pointing in the direction of a collapse of price in area.

DH and I had resigned ourselves to just sitting it out and waiting and don't really see the point in forcing a sale before March cos the last thing we want to do is buy at top of the market or get stuck.

We are DESPARATE to get out of here too though. Its too small. We are tripping over each other, and DS really needs his own space.

Plus the Withdrawal Deal (or lack of) is just two weeks off...

I'm mulling over the possibility of just taking it off the market. Or whether we should drop it. Or we should just sit on it for a while longer.

I have no idea what to do. Frankly I don't care anymore cos if I think about it I go round and round in circles. It just feels like we are trapped and damned either way.

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prettybird · 04/10/2018 18:31

All that the Scottish Court case would do is confirm that it is legally possible for the UK to rescind A50 right up until 22.59 on 29 March 2019.

The UK Government whoever that might be would still need to be prepared to do so and not still keep its head stuck in the sand muttering "The Will of the People" Hmm

I suppose if there were a change of Government before then, it gives them some scope for manoeuvre. Confused

woman11017 · 04/10/2018 18:32

Mrs8 I'm not sure I understand it that well, I know David Allen Green doesn't rate legal chances but...........

"Latest: Oct. 4, 2018
We're on our way!

Following our successful appeal, the Inner House of the Court of Session has referred to the Court of Justice of the European Union the question whether we can withdraw the terms of the Articl...

The future of Brexit is increasingly uncertain.

The promises the Government made – that there would be “no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside” and that a deal would be the “easiest in history” – look like falling short. And new facts about Brexit are emerging every day: only today it became clear that to leave will involve us settling a staggering €50,000,000,000 liability.

The message now is "damage control."

This makes it vital that we leave all options on the table for Parliament, including staying in the EU. It must be Parliament that decides on our future – not Ministers in a minority Government. It must be Parliament that chooses which path we take when, at last, we learn what's on the table.

And there is a choice.

We know it is possible to stay in the EU, if the other member states give us permission.

But the destiny of the United Kingdom should rest in the hands of our Parliament. It must be our elected MPs who decide what road to take. Politicians from Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland – not elsewhere – must control our future.

Many experts believe we can choose to stay in the EU without permission. That, if we want, we can just withdraw our notice. But there is only one way to be sure: a court has to decide what Article 50 means.

And because Article 50 must mean the same thing to everyone, a national court can’t give the answer. Only the specialist European Court in Luxembourg can interpret Article 50 definitively. So we will ask the Court of Session in Scotland to ‘refer’ it to Luxembourg.

This is the only way to give our Parliament the best negotiating hand. To maximise its power if the right choice is to stick with what we have.

The Mechanics

Earlier this week we wrote to David Davis MP and the Advocate General for Scotland asking them to set out the Government's position on whether the Article 50 notice can be unilaterally withdrawn. We gave them fourteen days to confirm that the Government accepts that it is legally possible as a matter of EU law for the UK unilaterally to withdraw its Article 50 notice.

The Petitioners will be Andy Wightman MSP, Ross Greer MSP and they will be joined by Alyn Smith MEP and David Martin MEP. There may also be further Petitioners.

They will be represented by a stellar legal team. It will be led by Aidan O'Neill QC. Aidan is a "double Silk" - a QC in both England/Wales and Scotland. The leading legal directory, Chambers, said in 2016 that "He knows more about European Union law than anyone else." His junior will be Peter Sellar. And they will be instructed by Elaine Motion, the Chairman of Balfour + Manson.

We are seeking to raise funds for the permission stage and any adverse costs. If we are successful in obtaining permission - and we believe we will be - we are likely to need to raise further sums. Given the obvious public interest in the outcome we will ask the court to make a protective costs order.

The legal team are working at heavily discounted rates".
www.crowdjustice.com/case/strengthening/

@jonlis1
Yet another sign of how quickly things are changing. Until recently @Anna_Soubry wouldn’t publicly commit to a Remain option on the ballot paper. Now she’s out and proud. This movement is moving fastJonathan Lis added,

@itvpeston
.@Anna_Soubry tells #Peston in no uncertain terms. Regardless of the deal the PM brings back, she wants a People's Vote on Brexit with Remain as an option.

woman11017 · 04/10/2018 18:33

Much better explanation thanks prettybird
Worth renting it out red and heading to civilisation?

RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 18:36

No one yet knows the state the country will be in by 29 March next year. Or even who the PM might be.

It might be politically attractive to revoke A50 at the last minute.

That's the point. Brexit creates uncertainty that no one is truly in control of.

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 18:40

red I agree with woman: Have that year in Europe - in a bigger place - while you let your (too small) house

prettybird · 04/10/2018 18:41

Even if the ECJ were to confirm it is legally possible, it would mightily piss off the E27, given both the opportunity cost and the actual costs of the work they have had to do preparing for Brexit Hmm

RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 18:43

We want to stay in the area if we stay in UK. We need to be in the catchment for school entry for DS come Jan. DH still holding off going to Europe and wants to hedge our bets with DS and school. Renting somewhere bigger would potentially be an idea. We have looked, but it's not an area with a lot of rental properties full stop. Certainly nothing that fits the bill. It sucks.

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woman11017 · 04/10/2018 18:44

it would mightily piss off the E27 Bridges have been cruelly burnt with that Hunt speech, * Steve Bullock posted a heart broken thread about it.

Mrsr8 · 04/10/2018 18:45

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 18:47

On every damn Brexit thread, people post:

"We could do xyz before we joined the Common Market"

I keep reminding them:

"That was 45 years ago and the world of international trade and travel has changed massively."

DUH ! Angry 🤦🏻‍♀️

RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 18:51

We bought in 2007... The market only recently recovered here. Once bitten.

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Mrsr8 · 04/10/2018 18:52

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 18:55

red "Hedging your bets" is hanging onto your house while you spend a year or two in the EU

Better before DS starts school - atm he'd absorb a foreign language like a sponge, but it definitely takes longer from age 7

btw, DC in Germany start at age 6 and guess what, they learn to read & do sums asap.
In international comparisons of education standards, German kids are ranked higher than UK ones, so the extra 1-2 years doesn't hold them back - in fact German kids seem very confident and more relaxed, maybe being without all the SATS stress

BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 19:00

_ UK credit rating at risk if it fails to pay Brexit bill, Moody's warns_

Should be bloody obvious, but not to Ultra, whether MPs or MNers
Countries who welsh on their debts get a bad rep, just as for individuals

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/14/uk-credit-rating-risk-fails-pay-brexit-bill-moodys-warns/

Colin Ellis of major credit ratings agency Moody’s told The Daily Telegraph that
any failure by a country to pay what it had promised “with 100pc clarity” could be considered a default

A failure to pay a legally binding debt can result in a country’s credit score being slashed to sub-investment level,
sending markets a highly negative message.

RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 19:00

If we don't go to the EU. DS has to start school in Sept. It's an exceptional school. If we go to the EU coming back becomes more difficult in terms of getting into a good school. We are unlikely to get a place at the school we'd like.

If we apply, we get allocated a place in April. But we have to be resident between Jan and April or we risk losing the place.

That's the dilemma.

Too many unknowns.

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BestIsWest · 04/10/2018 19:07

Oddly, house prices still seem to be going up where we are. I’ve followed the market locally obsessively for the last 5 years while we’ve dithered over moving or extending. Doing neither for now.

RedToothBrush · 04/10/2018 19:10

Leave or Remain area???

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Mrsr8 · 04/10/2018 19:16

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/10/2018 19:21

I'm glad I sold when I did - I only lost 4% from 2015 peak and I'd owned it for 30 years

Prices have been falling in that area since, but very little is being sold
SE within London commuter belt, 58% Remain