Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

So, Misti where do we go from here?
We’re up a creek without a paddle!

From the outset I am a remainer, but seeing the atrocious way that all the UK politicians Lab/Con have gone about 'negotiating' I am rapidly feeling that for the good of the EU that the UK should leave as hard as possible. They have forced EU countries to waste Billions that could have been used for something more productive. The issue is that the UK is rotten, due to successive government policies and a continual claim of 'entitlement' and 'we are better than the foreigners'. The UK needs a few years of total misery to 'get it's head together'.

Yup, the reports, if accurate, are that there will be an NI backstop and it won't be time-limited

Re Canada +++ the pluses don't make the frictionless border we currently have
2 years ago, May said a Canada type deal was unacceptable because of what it would mean to the economy to lose frictionless trade

So, it would be a massive climbdown for her, but covered with fancy fluff, to diguise the fact and get it through the HoC

The "evolution" clause would give her - or her successor - the right to switch to Norway+ during transition, provided the UK drops some red lines.
That would probably enable HoC approval.
Even years later, a future govt could always apply to join EEA / EFTA, but being able to much earlier, while still in transition, sweetens the pill for MPs from a broad political spectrum

So, it would save us from the worst of disasters, but not from losing some business, which would probably cause the evolution clause to be used later

Sarah Wollaston: when she was in the Leave camp, senior Brexiteers told her they knew the £350m NHS figure was a lie

prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/sarah-wollastons-road-back-to-europe

"When they announced the £350m a week for the NHS, I knew that was nonsense and I was constantly saying to them I wouldn’t go on their bus or do any platform speeches for them.”

“So many people were saying to me, quite senior people within the Leave campaign, that they knew it was false
… I thought ‘I just cannot continue to have anything to do with these people.’”

More than 2 dozen celebs and politicians are funding free coaches from their own home towns to the People’s Vote March on Oct 20:

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/delia-smith-sir-patrick-stewart-olly-alexander-to-fund-peoples-vote-coaches-1-5725095

The All In/Out thread has gone pear-shaped overnight in an entertaining way.

I particularly liked the poster who claims they've changed from Remain to Leave because horrible Remainers are the only ones who have posted abuse. Which is then followed by screeds of swearwords, rage-filled attacks and disablist language from a Leaver.

And the travel thread has plumbed new depths, with apparently serious suggestions that Disneyland will ensure that travel continues uninterrupted 😂

{Disneyland will ensure that travel continues uninterrupted}
It is quite apt really as Disneyland is all about fairy tales.

Those threads. And it's not just mumsnet. I'm on a Puerto pollensa (I know, I know I am a walking cliche) travel group thing and someone asked about flights and same kind of responses.
It's given me two horrible realizations.
First, that while I thought extreme Daily Mail / UKIP types were a vocal but less than 1% type group I appear to have seriously underestimated this.
And second, that lovely nice rational thoughtful people when presented with a "This could be really bad and it might be wise to take some steps to prepare" think you are bat shit crazy.

If there is a no deal Brexit , would people still receive refunds if it is classed as a force majeure ?

Was chatting to a man who works in the civil service the other day, we were talking about the subject of travel and I asked what he thought would happen. He said that the official line has to be it will all be fine, right up until the last moment before it isn't, because the alternative is chaos. I said that's not very reassuring and he smiled and said but that has to be the official line. He also said that there had been mention of a massive rise in passport fees to try and mitigate some of the disruption post Brexit, but he didn't think that had gone anywhere.

(FT paywall) EU drafts tough contingency plans for no-deal Brexit

Based on statements by diplomats who have seen the draft.
Ramps up the pressure on the UK to deal

https://www.ft.com/content/5606f710-c8ac-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9

Brussels is planning to rattle the UK by unveiling tough contingency measures for a no-deal Brexit that could force flight cancellations
and leave exporters facing massive disruption if Britain departs the EU without an exit agreement in March.

...the plan is likely to encompass a limited number of initiatives over a maximum of eight months, diplomats who have seen the document told the Financial Times.

Notably, the EU is not planning special arrangements for customs or road transport and only limited provisions for financial services
⁃ a decision that, if seen through, would cause long queues and operational difficulties at ports and airports.
⁃
... the timing of the document indicates that Brussels may use it as leverage in the talks,
only to end up revising no-deal plans.

An EU diplomat familiar with the preparations said the commission was planning to adjust the tone of the draft according to progress made in negotiations over coming days.

“It will be harder if it all gets stuck and softer if things are going well,”
...
airlines such as Ryanair and British Airways parent International Airline Group would not be given any extra transition time to meet the bloc’s regulatory requirement of 50 per cent EU-based ownership for a European operating license.
...
The commission has thus far resisted outlining details of its plans for a no-deal Brexit for fear it would disrupt tense negotiations.
But with just six months to go before Brexit, EU member states have pressed Brussels to speed up its preparations in case no deal is agreed in time.

Brussels will outline general principles for deciding the fields requiring special measures,
which must only mitigate significant disruptions in areas of “vital union interest”.

The measures would be applied by the EU until the end of 2019 on a unilateral basis.
They could be revoked with no notice, according to diplomats.

The plans are intended to enable basic air services, allowing flights to land and fly straight back to the UK,
and to extend air safety certificates and security exemptions for UK travellers in transit.
Visa-free travel is envisaged for British citizens, as long as it is reciprocated.
...
...unnecessary to relax customs and agricultural controls.
Instead, it urges member states to be ready to enforce the EU’s full import rule book from the first day of Brexit.

Road hauliers would have their access rights limited to a system of permits that only covers 5 per cent of existing traffic.
There would be no mechanism to extend EU licenses, according to a diplomat who had seen the document.
...
“The UK becomes a rule-taker not a rulemaker,” the paper states

EU will sew up the backstop in a straight jacket the tories can't remove

It absolutely must, because Tories such as Gove are already talking about letting it through for now, and then undoing it afterwards.

The UK needs a few years of total misery to 'get it's head together'.

I tend to agree, but these things can be uncontrollable. Who say, at the turn of the last century say in 1910, would have foreseen the Wars the 20th Century would bring? Some of the effects are still being worked out. A divided Europe, now reunited, with the Eastern bloc states encouraged by Major (backed by the US) to join the EU. Large numbers of EU immigrants, not controlled by Blair. Resentment of such immigrants helping to cause Brexit. Tensions in Germany, mostly from the eastern ex-communist part.

Undoing the backstop afterwards would mean losing the Canada +++ deal, or whatever deal is later agreed

Also, trade deals normally take 5-15 years, especially for a highly complex economy like the UK and the very complex SIngle Market etc of the EU

So the backstop would remain a long time, unless the govt gives up on EU trade

Was chatting to a man who works in the civil service the other day, we were talking about the subject of travel and I asked what he thought would happen. He said that the official line has to be it will all be fine, right up until the last moment before it isn't, because the alternative is chaos.

And, scarily, the same surely applies to the official line on medicines, food etc.

The consequences of undoing the backstop need to be written into the agreement i.e, (in legal language), 'undo the backstop and the Canada ++ deal is null and void.' It would still have the Rees-Moggites and others whining that the EU are being bullies. No, you broke an agreement, the consequences of which you agreed at the time.

Their priority really does seem to be preventing british people getting off the island. And presumbably trapping our wealth and assets here too. Is this autarky? While the usual suspects can do the opposite?

This could be really bad and it might be wise to take some steps to prepare" think you are bat shit crazy
A sense of uninformed entitlement is as dangerous as the rabid brextremism atm . More dangerous, arguably, with less than 20% right wing nutterdom versus a solid core of the complacent middle.

Who say, at the turn of the last century say in 1910, would have foreseen the Wars
We're a funny species. The 1890s-1910s across Europe and Russia were a flowering of women's rights, enlightenment and liberalism. It could have continued. And didn't.

This is what so annoys May & the govt:

They are used to making grandiose speeches with wonderful promises and then the public forget / give up on holding them to what they said

The EU insist on legally binding text, with penalties, signed and formerly approved by all parties

Very unfair for lying govt weasels who are out of their comfort zone

Also, May is used to bullying comparatively powerless people, e.g. the elderly Windrush generation, those on Universal Credit,
but in this case it is the UK who need a deal far more than the EU

She hasn't the intellectual capability to negotiate with those who are more powerful - she only knows how to bully.

woman I think the govt may be quite happy to see the bolshy mc professionals leave,
those who won't do as they are told,
who won't follow the nationalist narrative with blind faith
but keep asking awkward questions.

Did you read the astonishing faith of some Leavers on the Holiday thread, posting that the govt politicians were very clever people who had clever plans hidden, but already to spring into effect on Day 1 after Brexit.

No logic why they would hide such amazing plans instead of using them to strengthen their negotiating hand with the EU.

BUT
I have always feared that if the markets suddenly lose faith that there is a deal, or the economy still crashes, so there is capital flight,
then the govt may impose emergency currency controls without notice
< except to their wealthy chums and Russian oligarchs who express anger with poison >

This is why I sold my flat and transferred my assets to Germany, quite early on

We must remember that in the transition phase, even if the EU treats the UK as a member wrt trade, the RoW cannot be forced to pretend the UK is still in the EU
So, it is difficult to estimate whether a WA would still produce a sharp shock, or just gradual decline.

So, imo emigrating would always be allowed, but maybe not with your lifetime savings
i.e. what you need to start a new life comfortably

Also, the govt has power wrt expat pensions and healthcare, mainly:

• not paying the standard increases to the state pension, but instead freezing it as for Australia

• stop refunding pensioner healthcare costs to the host health system (which is the current EU rule for expat pensioners)

Brussels is planning to rattle the UK by unveiling tough contingency measures for a no-deal Brexit that could force flight cancellations* *
and leave exporters facing massive disruption if Britain departs the EU without an exit agreement in March.

Quelle surprise.

Think we leave blind but with a transition. And with only a 21 month transition the EU gets what the EU wants.

If I'm correct Labour OWNS this. They've been boxed in and outmanoeuvred and now it's too late.

Sorry, I am just flabbergasted that on the holiday thread there are STILL people chipping in with 'the government won't allow our holidays to be disrupted' sort of theme. Don't they even read the DM?
I suppose as papers like the DM spout bollocks most of the time it is understandable that many don't believe it.
Holidays are just the tiniest tips of the iceberg in this mess and it seems nothing is going into these heads.
Disneyland won't stop me going for my holiday. This is true, but it is a long swim across the channel if there are no boats or planes.

Still chipping in with Y2K nothing happened bollocks too. It didn't happen because we prepared for it. We didn't just shout at our computers and say, Y2K means Y2K.

@BCF, What news and opinions are there on the ground in (whispers) abroadland?

{We didn't just shout at our computers and say, Y2K means Y2K}
I might have done in an angry moment, although it wouldn't have been Y2K as any computers I had didn't suffer from that specifically.

'the government won't allow our holidays to be disrupted' sort of theme.

In some senses they are right though. If planes don't take off we are into the worst case scenario of empty shelves and civil unrest.

It seems as if the EU is now laying it's "no deal" cards on the table - and very good cards they are too - and this is what is pushing the UK government to compromise.