Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

In a way I wish the EU wouldn't try and help the UK with it's (lack of) plans. The EU should just assume the UK is going and on the morning of 30 March, just ask quietly, 'have you gone yet'?
UK Gov, taking back control by getting the EU to do all the work!

'the government won't allow our holidays to be disrupted' sort of theme
I can't help thinking that this regime is so sociopathic it would.

(see Windrush, Grenfell, DWP, HO, NHS, treatment of NI and Scotland)

I didn't think anyone would be daft enough to invoke A50 without a plan, but I was wrong.

I thought that once the Irish backstop was agreed, after some bluster by Gove and Co, that it was in a form which would stay agreed. We now hear from Johnson that he didn't really agree after all because he was too lazy to think at the time.

So what the Government will or won't allow, I suspect it's gone too far and it will be a case of "Events, dear boy, events."

Quick update on how our trade deals are going:

havewegotafuckingtradedealyet.com/

TL:DR Zilch

'How green is my valley' has become 'how deep is the sh&t'.

That website lacks a couple of things.
A countdown timer until March 29th.
I thought we had a couple of 'pencilled in' deals with a couple of African countries, or have they now found an eraser and removed them?

If the ports are clogged then flights will be reserved for essential supplies and rich connected people. People going on holiday will be at the end of a very long queue.

However if the likes of JRM or BoJo decide they and their families will be better off in the US for six months I expect they will manage to get a flight.

This is one instance where I'm glad I'm poor enough not to have to worry about a holiday abroad.

Actually the main message I’m taking from the travel thread is how deep the ignorance and complacency is amongst the public, and how angry they are at anything that stirs these depths instead of offering blithe empty reassurances - even the fluffy “oh it’ll be fiiiiiine because fairies” responses actually carry unspoken rage in them (at anyone having the audacity to think). I can’t even call it childlike thinking, because of the underlying darkness.

But - just imagine how properly, incredulously furious all these people are going to be when reality strikes.

the government won't allow our holidays to be disrupted' sort of theme.

The government can't do a lot about the value of the pound against the Euro or the Dollar...

If I'm correct Labour OWNS this. They've been boxed in and outmanoeuvred and now it's too late.

What do you mean, Misti? Sorry speed reading latest comments so I'm a bit confused by this.

@SwedishEdith

Labour has been trying to have it both ways and while that might have been a good idea if May couldn't reach a deal, it's NOT a good strategy if she does reach one. Because they will be put in the position of voting for a bad deal or voting for no deal. Of course the ultimate responsibility here is the governments, but nevertheless the parliamentary numbers mean that Labour effectively has it in their power to swing the decision between deal or no deal. Politically for me, the outcomes now are:

1. The deal is agreed by parliament with Labour support. After a transition, the UK ends up as a vassal state (EEA+/ Bino). The economy does not tank so the conservatives remain electable. Remainers think Labour have sold them short. Leavers are not happy, because foreigners, but they are not going to vote for Labour, because foreigners.

1. The deal is agreed with Lab support and after transition the UK ends up with a hard Brexit and few concessions. The economy tanks. Remainers are not happy because Labour sold them short. The press blames the EU and Labour. Leavers still hate foreigners and still vote Tory.

1. MPs vote down the deal and economic catastrophe ensues. Remainers blame Labour and stay at home in the inevitable GE. The press blames the EU and Labour for not supporting the government. Leavers still hate foreigners, who are to blame for crashing the economy, and they also hate Labour for not voting for the deal that they (Leavers) said they hated.

1. MPs vote down the deal and after the markets object vigorously, A50 is cancelled and there is a GE. This could possibly be good for Labour but only if remainers forgive them for not getting onboard earlier. My opinion in this scenario is that there is a low turnout and a Tory majority unless Labour ditch Corbyn.

Scénario 4 now v unlikely IMO, and only good for Labour if Corbyn goes.

If I'm right about this, it have been much more sensible for Labour to put their cards on the table earlier and campaign for a new vote or (better) Norway+.

LeClerc "Pencilled in" is meaningless:
Nothing is binding and everything can change, until we have an actual signed trade deal

BUT
the UK legally can't sign trade deals until after Brexit
and
trade deals normally take years to negotiate.

It would be legal to negotiate during the A50 period and sign the day after Brexit.
and very simple bilateral trade deals with some of those African countries at least, are theoretically possible

However, there are no signs of negotiations happening

The roadblock:
Negotiators - particularly from the other countries - need first to know the terms of the UK Brexit deal - if any - before they can start work

They are very skilled, expensive staff in short supply, so no country would leave them hanging around defining alternative strategies for the various possible Brexits.

The UK's very small number of trade negotiators are already overwhelmed by Brexit
They certainly wouldn't be sent to do deals where the UK currently only exports £4 billion, compared to the EU where the UK exports £240 billion

(I'd keep an eye though on what Werrity-Sniffer Liam Fox is up to in the USA, with the agreement to keep talks secret for 4 years after a deal)

imo, the Tories will own Brexit, whether there is a good or bad outcome (as judged by the public)

Labour would get most of the blame for any ill effects if they vote down a deal, or modify it.

If they vote with the govt on any deal, Labour won't get any of the credit for a "successful" Brexit
i.e. where the public don't experience the bad effects of Brexit within a year or two, then the Tories will get all the credit and Labour would get none.

So their wisest course - if they think purely of party politics - is to abstain on any vote,
then highlight & campaign when the expected problems occur.

With this abstension:
. if the Tories can't get the vote through, that would seen as their lack of discipline

. Whether there is a deal, or a no deal crash, if people don't like what happens after 29 March,
they'll mostly blame the Tories - except for those voters who are tribal Tories and hence would never vote for anyone else under any circs.

BCF
'Penciled in' is the story of my life, I know nothing is real until it happens!
I was thinking it might have registered as a 'hopeful' on that specific website which is largely pointless apart from some links to further reading.
Does the relative silence, apart from some rustling in Brussels mean things are being discussed or that the gov is still nursing a hangover from the 'after conference' party?

There is no modification of any deal. If TM comes back with a deal, we have no scope for debate about the terms of it. It is Deal or No Deal.

MrsR8 tbh, unless you are planning to actually move for a few years to the EU, I wouldn't bother.
Living in the Uk requires only Sterling.

Currency speculation, like any gambling, is for those who can aford to lose.

If the speculation is correct and a deal happens, Sterling might well bounce up a bit, although not to pre-ref levels.

I would however ensure that you keep well within the guaranteed limit on the total accounts you hold in any one bank or building society
and if you have a lot of savings, transfer some to another UK bank, in case one goes tits up (could happen even within the transition period) and you can't access money for a while.

If there is no deal, then before Brexit:

• Take out enough cash to tide you over for 2-3 weeks

• If you are going on a long holiday there over Brexit, I recommend
  either obtaining an account and credit card at a bank there
  or taking sufficient Euros (or maybe Traveller's cheues are safer)
  in case UK credit cards don't work for a while

yes, there will be no time to try to get another deal.
The choice will be between whatever deal May manages to agree with the EU vs automatic no deal and cliff edge without transition

Leclerc These rumblings of being close to a deal are by far the most positive yet
It seems the EU would accept the deal as outlined with its NI backstop

However, noone can say whether May is
a) willing
b) able

to agree too and to stay in office long enough to even put it before the HoC

The Ultras might well try to oust her and replace her
or the DUP may gamble and say / hint they won't provide c&s - in which case Labour would go for a No Confidence motion

For 95% of the 45 years we have been in the EU, British public opinion has been robustly pro EU.

If the vote had taken place when Cameron had wanted it to in 2017, we would have 'won'.

Only by denying a vote to the 5.5million British/EU British (population of Scotland?) they 'won'. Even with that gerrymandered demographic, a million of the tiny majority have passed on now. January 2019 is the official cross over point when there are simply more remainers alive than leavers, of the gerrrymandered electorate?

Only using the targetted and illegally funded dark ads, could they get the tiny 'majority,' at that time. Jo Maugham is doggedly pursuing this still. No co oincidence that Cadwallada is being sexistly smeared today.

Puts Barnier et al in peculiar situation, negotiating with regime leaders who are in control of a majority EU populace.

Kenneth Williams (olden days comedy actor) describing how much richer Britain had got in the early days of joining the EC/EU.
£3b trade in 1973 to £21b in 1985.

Conservatives are now party of 'far-right ideology and intolerance' says leader of Tory MEPs under David Cameron

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-eu-parliament-far-right-orban-hungary-mep-europe-populism-a8570531.html

The MEP who was leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament under David Cameron has said the party has now drifted into “far-right ideology and intolerance”.

Richard Ashworth was expelled from the Tories this week, along with his colleague Julie Girling, after previously having the whip removed for defying it on Brexit.

Last month the two MEPs voted the opposite way to their Tory colleagues to censure the far-right government of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, along with a large majority of other MEPs in the European Parliament.

woman and £240 bn exports in 2016 to the EU

Great moment in any questions last night. Diane Abbott talking about Labour's pledge to end FoM. Them into Labour's six tests and exact same benefits. Tweet read out asking DA how we will have the exact same benefits of we have lost the benefit of FoM. Long pause.

It's interesting how, now the government are actually confirming that FoM will end after their announcement of their immigration policy, people are starting to make a noise about losing their rights. And how politicians have been lazily thinking that everyone hated FoM are now being confronted with the fact that this is not the case.

Julie Girling is so brave. She has been on the radio a bit this week LBC. She sounded as astonished and saddened as anyone by how the tory party had treated her. £240b . All worth it for the Tate and Lyle brexit. (see David Davis) Extortionate milk and but lots of sugar. Our poor kids.