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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 22:57

BORIS WANTS A BRIDGE, THERESA WANTS A PARTY AND THE MAIL?

THEY WANT TO SAVE OUR PARKS.

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Peregrina · 29/09/2018 23:00

Taxing furrins might be good. Aren't the Russians and Middle Easterns buying up whole swathes of Central London? Or will she exempt them, and aim to kick your Spanish husband, or German wife?

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 23:05

If post Brexit the troubles in NI started again wouldn't building a bridge just be the same as putting a sign up saying 'bomb here'?

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Peregrina · 29/09/2018 23:10

A bridge doesn't solve the Irish border issue.

woman11017 · 29/09/2018 23:11

I am in awe at the tencacity of those keeping a lid on what is happening in NI now. I am also amazed at the decorum and diplomacy with which the ROI is dealing with the shit fest we are presenting too.

The 'troubles' will be here soon enough on the mainland. There will be 'Emergency Powers' curfews and the attendant media curtailments. There are sectarian thugs itching to get near martial law enforcement as patriotic volounteers, in many o english and scottish cities, I have no doubt.

RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 23:18

Don't crackpot dictators do things like build ridiculous buildings at huge expense of the poor?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/naturally-selected/201702/7-steps-becoming-dictator%3famp
7 Steps to Becoming a Dictator
A manual for strengthening your power position as elected leader

Long article but the summary for No7:
The lesson: Build buildings and erect statues in your honor, and get the Church on your side.

The others are:
The lesson: Control the media or, even better, own the media. It’s as simple as that.
The lesson: Start a war when your position as leader becomes insecure. Having generals in top political posts should certainly help.
The lesson: Keep your political enemies close to you.
The lesson: Restore the economy, develop large infrastructural projects that create a lot of jobs and it will strengthen your power base.
The lesson: Any aspiring dictator who restores order, even through coercion, is likely to earn the gratitude of his people.
The lesson: Better make sure to surround yourself with loyal kin who you can trust to do what’s best for you and your family. (Corruption)

Hmmmm

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RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 23:19

A bridge doesn't solve the Irish border issue

No but it massages Johnson ego.

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RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 23:20

Meanwhile in Germany, its the Greens not Afd who look like they will be the second biggest party soon.

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RedToothBrush · 29/09/2018 23:24

I also liked the bit in the times interview when May said to critics, to stop playing politics with Brexit and to back Chequers

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BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 23:31

RENTERS VS TORIES Renters in marginal constituencies have abandoned the Tories, a poll has revealed

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7366013/renters-abandon-tories-housing/amp/

RENTERS have abandoned the Tories in droves in the nation’s marginal seats because of the spiralling housing crisis, a shock new poll has revealed.

A new survey of the 60 tighest constituency battlefields shows barely a quarter – 28% – of the key voting group living in them now back Theresa May’s party.
Half – 50% – now plan to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party instead.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/09/2018 23:52

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week

explosive claims that the boss of one UK-based carmaker has been flown by private jet to meet President Emmanuel Macron,
in an attempt to persuade the company to move manufacturing to France after Brexit.
< Macron will become the post-Brexit bogeyman, like DeGaulle was, pre-Common Market >
...
May is being warned that for some businesses a Canada-style deal is little better than crashing out of the EU with no agreement in place.
< obviously, because CETA is nowhere near frictionless and JIT manufacturing would be hammered >

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 00:44

www.coppolacomment.com/2018/09/checkmate.html

Brexit is really nothing to do with the EU.
It is, as it always has been, a war between two wings of the Tory party over the right to govern the UK.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 07:58

It's expensive this coup. Who's enjoying it?

Brexit costing Britain £500m a week and rising, says report

Economy 2.5% smaller than it would have been if UK had voted remain, says thinktank

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

In contrast in Ireland:

^Ireland forecast to record highest GDP growth in Europe this year
European Commission predicts GDP growth of 5.6% for 2018 and 4% for next year^
www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-forecast-to-record-highest-gdp-growth-in-europe-this-year-1.3562629

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 08:01

Robert Peston @peston
Wellcome Foundation’s hard-Brexit threat: “We have invested in UK for more than 80 years. It has provided an environment in which science and innovation can thrive, but if conditions and culture here are damaged, that will affect our support. It is not unconditional”.
amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/30/no-deal-brexit-would-stall-nhs-medical-revolution?__twitter_impression=true
No-deal Brexit would stall the NHS medical revolution
Wellcome’s director offers a stark warning about the trust’s future in the UK

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BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 08:09

www.bbc.com/news/business-45676633

Business Secretary Greg Clark told the BBC "we need to have a deal".
To see Britain's place as a world leader in automotive technology "slip through our fingers" would be something "we would regret forever",

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 08:19

Interesting to see the different emphasis in the distorted statement from (the disgraced Werrity-sniffer) Liam Fox's department which trumpeted that non-EU exports continued to exceed EU exports.

His mouthpiece doesn't mention that those £274 billion exports to the EU are ⅛ of our annual GDP;
instead boasted that the USA remains the UK’s top export market at £112 billion
and even of increased exports to far-off countries, not mentioning the totals are TINY:

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exports-to-non-eu-countries-continue-to-outstrip-eu

"The fastest growing export market for the UK since 2010 was Oman, with exports increasing by 354% to £3 billion.
This was followed by Macedonia (FYROM) with UK trade growing by 318% to £1 billion and then Kazakhstan which was up by 210% to £2 billion."

< TINY compared to £274 billion he and his gang are risking ! >

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 08:20

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45679730
Three in five British adults say miracles are possible

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woman11017 · 30/09/2018 08:31

The BBC is the idiot's friend.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 08:32

May has a conference cold. Again.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 08:34

Poll
May's Brexit negotiation policy is still more popular among Tory voters - quite different to activists- than anyone else's
Those voters support her re "no deal better than bad deal"

Norway still a minority preference even among all voters

https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-boost-for-theresa-may-ahead-of-tory-conference-brexit-deal/

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 08:37

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
Tory chairman Brandon Lewis feeling the heat as it emerges he was going to proudly unveil the app in his speech tomorrow. A normally loyal MP texts: “Conference hasn’t even started yet and it’s descended into a farce. Brandon needs to get a grip”

Senior Tory texts: “If only Grayling was still in the job”

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BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 08:37

The fact that the 18-24 age group have the highest belief in miracles - over 3/4 ! - may explain the widespread belief in that group
that a man is a woman if he says he is 

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 08:45

It's 'Pravda' BCF bbc are telling fibs, I don't believe that stat. This generation of 18-24 year olds is one of the brightest, and the solid Remain demographic which is 12 weeks from succeeding the leave one, in that poll of all those many years ago.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 08:49

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/health-secretary-matthew-hancock-nhs-technology?__twitter_impression=true
Matthew Hancock: ‘I’ll travel the world looking for the best technology for NHS’
The health secretary wants to avoid the costly IT mistakes of his predecessors, and keep his children off social media for as long as possible

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1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 08:55

Didn't I notice some 'sabre rattling' at Russia yesterday, possibly day before? That could be your 'start a war' element to the plan.
Compulsory handwashing around all cathedrals.

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