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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 09:00

btw, re Boris's bridge mania:
Is he aiming this to gain DUP support, or for their 5th column within the Tory party ?

iirc, a bridge between Scotland and Ireland has long been one of the DUP's wacky aims

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 09:08

Yes we are sending 800 commandos to the Arctic.

Election Data @election_data
Opinium poll post Labour conference:
Con 39 (+2)
Lab 36 (-3)
"The decrease in votes for Labour is primarily a result of losing favour amongst Remainers in the last week – with support falling from 53% last week to 50% this week."

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woman11017 · 30/09/2018 09:08

keep his children off social media for as long as possible
I'd be interested in the stats for how SM used amongst 18-24 year olds and younger kids, too.
My sense is that they use it very differently to those of us in our 'prime' Wink, and also those who are politically active.

Only 57% of UK population on SM in Jan 2018.
www.statista.com/topics/3236/social-media-usage-in-the-uk/

1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 09:15

{Delays and disruption to trains as 'leaf fall' timetables launch}
Sky news online.
Changing timetabled arrivals or departures and possibly missing stations out altogether. All because of the inability to sort out some leaves (OK quite a lot but railways have managed for the last hundred years). Maybe a new Brexit tactic, those 'foreigners' will laugh themselves to death.
Better warn BoJo that bridges tend to be close to water and could be wet.

lonelyplanetmum · 30/09/2018 09:20

Three in five British adults say miracles are possible

Does this explain why so many are cavalier about ditching a lucrative trading relationship - because a miracle will happen?

Or does this mean we should keep on trying to preserve our relationship- because miracles do happen?

Annandale · 30/09/2018 09:28

Place mat king. Thanks Red and all.

HesterThrale · 30/09/2018 09:36

If reversal doesn't happen, 6 months today we'll be out of the EU. After 2.5 years of clinging to hope, half the population may be feeling bereft and pessimistic about the future. And bitter towards the other half.
What would that do for the country?

1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 09:56

{After 2.5 years of clinging to hope}
Hope of what, remaining or leaving?
When the penny really does drop that there are no unicorns for many years to come and with the 'extreme Brexit' brigade whipping up unrest to 'support' their claim that all will be great. How will this play to the remainers and those who couldn't really decide but are now more convinced that remaining could be best.
'Leavers would loose intangibles but Remainers (an everybody) will lose hard cash in pockets and jobs. How much unrest is this going to cause?

borntobequiet · 30/09/2018 10:00

Boris should be encouraged by this
www.theregister.co.uk/2010/09/08/bridge_on_the_moon/

SusanWalker · 30/09/2018 10:06

I wonder if Boris' obsession with bridges is a compensation for something. The longer and more impressive the bridge the better.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 10:08

I wonder if all the Brits sticking their tongues up the arses of Americans agitating for Brexit have stopped and asked:

So, that "Prohibition" thing .... how did that work out for you ?

Because it seems the parallels are uncanny - both changes driven by ideology over reality. And prohibitions effects are still extant today.

(I was reminded of this again, treating myself to a Californian craft beer, noting the general view of beer connoisseurs that the US is only now beginning to get back to where it was pre-prohibition, in terms of hundreds local breweries and a network to sell through.

Just to echo the car manufacturers warning upthread.

And interestingly, I have never seen any historical analysis that portrays prohibition as anything other than a disaster. I wonder if the Sisters of Temperance were persuading their members that it would turn out right in 50 years time ? Even though a lot of (the wrong) people made a lot of money from it.

Thomasinaa · 30/09/2018 10:13

If the younger generation are so bright, why didn't they bother to vote in the Referendum?

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 10:15

I'm sure the new 'Go Sober for October' thingy is pure co oincidence. Hmm What with real prohibition starting in March.
And its attendant business opportunities as you point out DGR.Wink

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 10:21

If the younger generation are so bright, why didn't they bother to vote in the Referendum
Because they were aged 15, or removed from the electoral roll due to gerrymandered and illegal in ECHR law exclusion of the 5.5m EU nationals or UK in EU.

1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 10:22

Being fed crap by 'bots' or whatever on SM and the preference to watch 'love island' or whatever on TV rather than take an interest in the way the country is being run. The number of 'serious' programmes is pretty small.
Until the vote in 2016 it made relatively little difference who you voted for as it was essentially same 'shit packaged differently', especially to those outside London and the SE.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 10:26

If reversal doesn't happen, 6 months today we'll be out of the EU. After 2.5 years of clinging to hope, half the population may be feeling bereft and pessimistic about the future. And bitter towards the other half. What would that do for the country?

It's probably not a great move for society if the government of the day manages to clump an majority of disaffected people into a fairly homogenous mass where people very quickly realise they are not alone and in fact are pretty much the majority.

They were better of ensuring it was merely a disparate collection of minorities - none of whom had any chance of forming a larger more coherent mass. Gays here. Blacks there. Muslims over the road.

But a 48+% of mainly white, middle class folk ? Plus a contingent (see that QT video) of people feeling conned ?

Let's hope the government aren't wearing anything with metal, and weighing things with mica in a copper lined room.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 10:35

I wonder what could happen to the ex-UK EU-residing citizens in a no deal scenario ?

Could they end up effectively disenfranchised ? Unable to vote in the country they live in, and unable to vote in the UK as non-resident UK citizens (in the EU) can continue to get fucked ?

PCPlumsTruncheon · 30/09/2018 10:35

That article about science/technology really depressed me. DS1 has just started at Imperial studying Medical bioscience. Brexit will massively limit his options.
On his corridor, there is one other Brit, 2 Chinese students, one from India, one from Germany, one from Slovakia and one from Botswana.
I feel proud that people come from all over the world to study here. It depresses the life out of me that some people would see those students as immigrants first and foremost.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 10:38

Just to add on - the UK has already established that UK citizenship isn't necessarily for life with the Windrush affair. So is there also a possibility that people that thought they were UK citizens when they moved to the EU suddenly discover they aren't anymore when they try to enter the UK in future ?

If nothing else, you could turn Brexit into a great marathon board game. Ideal for the darker colder months. To be played around a table next to a roaring log fire.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 10:39

I feel proud that people come from all over the world to study here.

But that has to be balanced by an "anti-you" that is the exact opposite, and hates the idea of - let's face it - "darkies" being in the UK. Unless they're shining shoes.

1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 10:43

There are parts of Britain (an I expect elsewhere) that any family who has not been there for at least 3 generations are 'incomers'. That includes people from other villages 10 miles away!
{Let's hope the government aren't wearing anything with metal, and weighing things with mica in a copper lined room.}
It is bugging me that this is not making enough sense@DGR

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2018 10:59

Three in five British adults say miracles are possible

Well, i certainly believe in the impossible now.

If someone had told me 3 years ago a Tory government would be risking 100s of 1000s of jobs in the Automotive sector, stockpling meds/food, appointing a food supplies minister, that we'd need an international driving permit to travel to France.....

I'd have thought that person insane.

With every day that goes by, it seems we are sinking ever deeper into a Lewis Carrol novel.

AND its ALL in the national interest as May would never do anything other Hmm

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 11:18

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Five times the PM refuses to rule out offering the EU more compromises on Chequers. She's not in Boudicca mode this morning #Marr

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Plonkysaurus · 30/09/2018 11:19

When I got my first job after graduating I was told I was not local enough. I was working about 30 miles away from where I grew up, and my accent is broadly similar.

Somewhere local to MrsR I believe, as my neighbours work at Toyota, Bombardier and Rolls.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 11:44

{Let's hope the government aren't wearing anything with metal, and weighing things with mica in a copper lined room.} It is bugging me that this is not making enough sense@DGR

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