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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 20:46

Reading her speech, I just noticed May's jibe at JRM:

“A Brexit that might make Britain stronger fifty years from now is no good to you if it makes your life harder today.”

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 20:48

Time May just means she won't deliberately continue austerity
A no-deal Brexit could make life as miserable for the poor as the hardest Tory could wish

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 03/10/2018 20:55

BigChoc actually I think this article in Le Figaro is concerning.
It does echo what I’ve always suspected the French would say bust it basically close the door to be able to cancel Brexit.
In that case, what is there left bar a No Deal? :(

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 20:57

May & Hammond know that any Brexit other than Norway+ will cause a stonking recesion

The best way to shorten / recover from a recession is to increase spending, public and consumer
Further austerity in a recession would worsen it seriously

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 21:03

MyBrexit Big difference between not allowing the UK to revoke A50 and wanting a no deal Brexit

The EU have alway wanted an EEA / EFTA Brexit, which could be negotiated to cause minimum danage to all parties.
They would now settle if need be for a minimal Canada+, which is a pretty hard Brexit
or even other possibilities like Ukraine etc - but probably too late to work those out

No deal is a dreadful outcome, but always preferable to the EU than either wrecking their SM, or allowing a humiliated UK back to wreck the while EU from the inside.

Peregrina · 03/10/2018 21:08

May just means she won't deliberately continue austerity

I am quite sure that May really means this, and when she also talks about the Just About Managing. Her problems being, as a woman lacking any sort of vision, and lacking contact with anyone much outside a narrow Tory Southern England mindset, that she really doesn't understand how 80% of the country live.

DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 21:10

.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
jasjas1973 · 03/10/2018 21:12

Further austerity in a recession would worsen it seriously

I doubt that would stop them, it didn't in 2010! as i said earlier, there is still far more spending cuts still to come over the next 2 years and by then who would lend us the money?

But lets stop all this negativity, our best years are ahead of us.

Peregrina · 03/10/2018 21:12

I like it DGR!

woman11017 · 03/10/2018 21:27

Theresa May Dancing to Stuff@dancingtheresaM
Theresa May dancing to Agadoo
twitter.com/dancingtheresaM/status/1047559341056937988
Thomas the Tank Engine theme song
twitter.com/dancingtheresaM

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 21:35

OT, but outrageous.
Shows the govt apologies after Windrush were meaningless mouthings:

UK threatens to deport grandchildren of evicted Chagossians

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/02/uk-threatens-to-deport-grandchildren-of-evicted-chagossians

Jeanette has British citizenship but her daughters do not.
Taniella and, in turn, Nesta risk being deported when they reach the age of 20 unless their mother can raise sufficient funds to pay for legal help to apply for their citizenship.
...
“[The UK government] removed my family [from the Chagos Islands] and put a military base there but now don’t want my kids to be British citizens,”
Jeanette Valentin said. “The Home Office said they cannot give my children British passports because they were not born in England.

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 21:41

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/02/young-tories-momentum-conservatives-party-conference
“Imagine a 16-year-old’s bedroom wall – but instead of pop stars or actors there will be politicians. Liam Fox is their version of Tom Hardy.” 🤮

BigChocFrenzy · 03/10/2018 21:45

Rescued [British] 'slave' thought to have lived in a shed in Cumbria for 40 years Shock

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/03/rescued-slave-thought-to-have-lived-in-a-shed-in-cumbria-for-40-years

Havabiscuit · 03/10/2018 21:49

In the end this speech is just more words. I was reasonably impressed when she first became pm with her words about “Making Britain work for everybody” etc etc. Did they translate into action? No. Not at all. If anything it’s got worse.
It also struck me as those geriatric old Tory’s heaved themselves up on to their feet to applaud. “ let’s work together for a better Britain”. It won’t be this lot doing that. It will be they younger generation who by a big margin didn’t vote for this. Why should they get behind it? What is she offering them but a recession and low wages?

GD12 · 03/10/2018 21:50

I had someone spout "Project fear" to me today. I can't believe people still belive that it's all "project fear". Even the government's own impact papers spell out the catastrophe a no deal would be. What the hell is wrong with people that don't get this?

woman11017 · 03/10/2018 21:55

Crowd funding page for Jeanette Valentin
www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/jeanette-valentin

BCF what's your take on a possible vote of no confidence in November?

What the hell is wrong with people that don't get this
Entitlement and not realising the sheer luck we've had to live with food, power and medicine in a democracy so far GD12 and media collusion. Sad

woman11017 · 03/10/2018 22:11

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-mocks-arlene-foster-over-bizarre-red-line-on-brexit-37380969.html

Sinn Fein travelling to meet Barnier to discuss preserving GFA.

Michelle O 'Neil is the only high profile politician I've heard today attacking the abolition of our FOM.

Deep in the heart of political unionism lies a great fear of betrayal by London

Dublin is taking heart at the level of alarm exhibited by the DUP at the Conservative Party conference

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/deep-in-the-heart-of-political-unionism-lies-a-great-fear-of-betrayal-by-london-1.3650620

Good thread on GFA
twitter.com/IRLPatricia/status/1047098749997207552

DoctorTwo · 03/10/2018 22:24

It would've been far more appropriate for her to have danced onto the stage to 'Kill The Poor', and it would at least have been honest.

Motheroffourdragons · 03/10/2018 22:36

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RedToothBrush · 03/10/2018 22:40

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3384141-Westministenders-Talks-Walk-Out?watched=1
New thread a little early cos I've gone down with the lurgy.

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Motheroffourdragons · 03/10/2018 22:43

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RedToothBrush · 03/10/2018 22:45

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
Theresa May will embark on a 10-day diplomatic blitz by phoning round EU leaders ahead of this month's summit, which Brussels chiefs say is the 'moment of truth' for Brexit. EU wants a divorce deal ready to go by 15th. Latest from @tnewtondunn and myself.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7411667/theresa-may-push-lock-brexit-deal/

I'm fine. Just don't get too close to me. Ahhhhhhchoooooooo

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Motheroffourdragons · 03/10/2018 22:50

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mathanxiety · 03/10/2018 23:05

Wrt the LucidTalk poll on NI voter feeling on Theresa May (mentioned by DGRosetti)
How strong is DUP support then ?

According to The Times article: One in three DUP voters does not trust TM to keep her promise (the other two out of three trust her).

60% of the electorate in NI does not equal one in three DUP voters, by a long shot, so many of those taking the poll are actually being optimistic that Brexit will result in NI becoming somewhat separate from Britain.

It's the two out of three that I would worry about. If TM throws NI under the bus then these people are going to feel completely betrayed.

Betrayal is a theme in the Loyalist narrative, and the necessity of taking matters into their own hands to force a desired outcome in Westminster. I suspect the answer to the question about DUP support is that it is soft in heavily agricultural areas but as strong as ever elsewhere, and that it will hold up, with rabid fringe elements as ever flirting with paramilitary engagement (see the events of the Eleventh Night for examples of extremist fringes).

All in all, it looks as if NI is split between optimism, blind trust that will turn to anger in the right circumstances, and pessimism.

I think there is a sizeable portion of the NI population that is thinking reunification would be a good thing and it's not unrealistic to hope it will be a matter of 'when' not 'if'.

DoctorTwo · 03/10/2018 23:06

Or maybe...