Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

It sounds to me a bit like hard Brexit was seen as a scare tactic by some.

UK: oi, EU, we don't like you so are leaving. We'll do a hard Brexit too so you'll suffer!
EU: oh shit, that's gonna hurt (does math). Yeah it will hurt but because we are a collective we'll manage but it might be better to prepare for this downfall so we won't have a too hard financial hit (spends two solid years preparing).
UK: oi, I want a deal.
EU: fine but no funny stuff, you know our rules, you helped write them, remember.
UK: I want funny stuff or I'll do a hard Brexit and you'll suffer. I am economically an important part of the EU remember?
EU: (looking down on the table at maths and two years of preparation for a hard Brexit, looks over to UK where the table is devoid of preparation papers) No.
UK: But I'll do hard Brexit!
EU: ok then, bye bye.

It would of course be better for the EU economically to have a deal, but they are willing and prepared for a hard Brexit. The UK is willing but is not prepared. Also don't forget that it's in the best interest of the EU if Brexit plunges the UK into a recession, this will help manage any EU countries who might think about leaving.

Benjamin totally agree about the silly reasons. I blame years of indoctrination by the right-wing press.

Do we need to have a MN Brexit 'technical' section before the draconian laws get enacted. How to grow veg and trap animals. Making a crystal set so you can hear radio from the continent.
Hotwiring/disabling government vehicles. Successful tunnel building.
First aid courses.
Sadly this is the sort of stuff some Syrians and far too many others have been doing to survive and are doing it now.
Syria was obviously different to the UK, but by no means backward, so thinking it can't happen in the UK is foolish.
On the plus side, if MN were banned I might do more work.

My worry frank is your statement “the workforce has adapted its skills to where demand is”. No practice, this will mean mass redundancies. You would also need a government willing to plan for and provide resources for retraining the work force which I cannot are happening. We have seen in the north what happens when you pull the rug out from whole industries- the workforce never recovers and you end up with high rates of long term unemployment.

My biggest fears for brexit are around unemployment. For myself personally and for my local region.

*in practice- typing and walking

Since it is economically viable for workers from Romania and Albania etc to come to the UK to do the shit jobs British don't want to do, the UK will have to UNDERCUT them to be viable in Europe. Unemployment is quite high across Europe so low skilled jobs can be filled. Lack of investment in training and higher (actually any) education in the UK is putting the UK workforce at a disadvantage.

Year 1 -
The UK gets a small surge inGDP, the economy grows, unemployment falls and as goods and services have a forward timeline it appears to be business as usual.

I worry that we are currently at this point - the weak pound has led to higher exports as overseas customers stock up while they can - but are about to exit this stage. Manufacturing sales are already starting to slump.

@1tisILeClerc - we have this. A Prepper topic. Contrary to what @FrankUnderwoodsWife , preppers don't long for Armageddon. I personally don't think Brexit means Armageddon, nor do most preppers onthe topic threads.
Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Make the best of what you have. Learn some new skills. Feel a tad more in control of your own fate.

This paper has just been released, if anyone is interested, on what the UKs future could look like post Brexit

iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/PLAN-A-FINAL.pdf

If we don't have adequacy, that is, something which the EU is satisfied with, we can't trade easily online with EU customers. We have already implemented GDPR into UK law and, chances are, this will help us obtain "adequacy ". The US does not have adequacy status but trades with the EU. I accept that. But at a cost to EU consumers. If you think it is OK to put shackles on our ability to trade electronically with our nearest and richest target market, you are making a mistake.
Contrary to what you think,@FrankUnderwoodsWife , I am confident we can make some sort of go of this. But lots of people will suffer first and it will take a couple of generations to get there.
As for the Irish border, nothing in that document gives any encouragement that we can resolve that issue.

That report is so full of discredited nonsense.

It’s from Shanker Singham previously Director at the Legatum Institute who decamped with his team to the IEA.

It says the Institute of Economic Affairs is an educational charity and takes no view of the politics involved in determining the Brexit process. Really? It’s not the Brexiters preferred think tank then.

As a reminder of the Singham/ Legatum links...https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/peter-geoghegan/legatum-who-are-brexiteers-favourite-think-tank-and-who-is-behind-them

@bellinisurge, the confidence in getting a deal wasn’t obvious when you were posting yesterday (and I promise i am not picking on you!), all I am trying to do is show the other side of the argument.

Shanker is one of the most knowledgeable people in the world on Trade rules, and has advised both the UK and US governments.

When asked how he voted, he admits he was a remainer, but appreciating the democratic voice of the citizens of the UK, has since “the vote” looking at how the UK can exit and maximize it’s position.

But these discussions are too emotive and contentious for anyone to try and see the view from side, which is a shame.

The IEA is hardly an impartial source!

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

That vision is reliant on others falling into the authors plans ie rolling over existing EU FTA's so they come into force for us, next March as we leave... what if these countries don't want too?
Have we even the time to do this renegotiation? oh and we must join WTO trading and intra national blocks too... uh ? don't we want to leave these types of structures?

The paper calls for us to deregulate in digital and financial services as the EU has held us back? really? London was until very recently the worlds number one financial centre...... ARM processor chips, either under licence or direct are found in almost all the worlds smart phones, laptops/desk tops and computer safety systems......our Pharma sector is a world leader.... we also became the worlds 5th richest economy...... all in the EU.

Some "EU is holding us back" maybe we need to be held back a bit more?

Why is the UK "held back" but Germany isn't ? and don't quote the euro, they did very well under the Mark and our manufacturing exports have not done that well despite a falling £ to euro over the last 18 years.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife . I'm not confident we could get a deal. I'm confident that, in a couple of generations we can forge something vaguely positive from this shit show because we have no choice but to.
My dd, thankfully will have her EU citizenship back by then (thanks,my Irish Mum) and can do what she wants.
I prep to ride out the worst.

That IEA paper thanks Darren Grimes on its first page. I think I'll pass on its wisdom, thanks.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

The iea (Institute of Economic Affairs) paper makes interesting reading, but it's from the same Free Market stable as the ERG and Minford papers. The basic theory is that the UK is large enough to demand special treatment in trade negotiations (exceptionalism) and that by standing alone the UK can achieve better terms than by being part of a trading bloc.

In theory this is plausible, but in practice the UK might find that;

• It is not as attractive and powerful as it thinks it is,
• Nobody is interested in what the UK is offering (too expensive, quality issues etc),
• All of the potential partners are already in relationships that they are perfectly happy with (current trading blocs),
• There are legal and ethical barriers preventing potential partners from entering into a new relationship (long term commitments and Treaties, with penalties for breaking them),
• The UK might not be trusted (breach of Good Friday Agreement, inconsistent and impossible Brexit stance etc)
• The UK may well be attractive, but other blocs are more attractive (e.g. Japan and Australia want deals with the EU before thinking about the UK)
• There is a real risk that any deals that the UK does make will be worse than the ones it already has, making the exercise pointless and damaging

In addition, there is the internal political and social impact to be considered:

• Free Trade policies have already destroyed much of UK industry, leaving communities in the North, Midlands, Wales and Scotland devastated,
• Free Trade means removing social, employment, environmental and consumer protection in order to compete with regulated economies;
• Free Trade means that the UK focusses on services and Hi-tech, which employ comparatively few people. Great for the 1 million highly skilled, but what do the other 59 million do for jobs?
• The trickle-down effect has been shown to be a fallacy - the top 5% are getting richer at the expense of the rest; the 95% are seeing their savings, pensions, jobs and security evaporate'
• Free Trade means an open market for education, healthcare and public services - and low taxation means there is less money for the public sector to invest in these. The current services that the population enjoys would only be available to those who can afford them,
• Free Trade puts food and medicine security at risk. It may be that it is currently cheaper to import food from far away, but this changes if fuel prices rise, disease or drought hits crops, the environment collapses (e.g. prawn farms in the Far East, Palm Oil plantations that make the land infertile). It puts food security at risk if there are political changes or conflicts, infrastructure or even bad weather that prevent food from arriving in the UK.

Food shortages, high unemployment, lack of opportunity and the inability of UK citizens to travel abroad for work sounds exactly like the Eastern Bloc of the 1970s and 1980s. Ultimately the population there rebelled. The same thing would surely happen in the UK, and very quickly.

Shanker is one of the most knowledgeable people in the world on Trade rules, and has advised both the UK and US governments.

That sounds like a cut and paste from Singham's own biog

He's an ex lobbyist and a free marketeer, and speaks alongside Patrick Minford. Also had a number of dodgy meetings with people like Baker, and was outed by the MoS as plotting with Gove and Johnson to steer the UK into hard Brexit. And he advises the ERG.

So ... not an independent party in any shape or form.

X post with Havanananana

(The same thing would surely happen in the UK, and very quickly.)
In the '70s and '80s the world did not have all the nice trappings like mobile phones and internet so regressing from these will make rebellion very fast.

I understand, you don’t like the source so will ignore any of the proposals he puts forward.
At least i have tried to offer some researched arguments as to why some people may have voted out.

Thanks for the interesting discussion though, I enjoy reading about others points of view, and take all of your concerns onboard.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/pm-urged-to-drop-chequers-in-order-to-win-brexit-prize

This Shanker Singham? oh, yes, very impartial!

I think it is important to look at any and all 'options' and discuss them. Obviously some are complete non starters, like the UK suggesting, demanding even, that the EU significantly alters the 4 main pillars.
As the dynamics of the EU have changed over the years I feel that some changes on FoM could be made that would improve the situation for all.
Computerised databases for checking allow peoples eligibility to be checked almost instantly, something that would take weeks when the EU.common market was set up.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife - people voted out for lots of different reasons. Which come unstuck once you test them.
Don't kid yourself that a Remain voter loves the EU or thinks we can't improve things.
Just don't want to throw us over a cliff .

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

I'm not disputing the proposals because of who has written them; I'm disputing them because they are based on a series of false assumptions and there are few, if any, other economists who agree with Minford and Singham.

I also disagree with their logic and theories as they take no account of the social impact of their theories. The UK is already seeing the impact of putting Minford's theories into action - he was Thatcher's advisor. In my opinion, the UK backed the wrong horse in the 1980s and continues to do so.

The Free Marketeers believe that 'the country' will be wealthier or better off if the UK follows their mantra, but what does this actually mean?

• 'The UK' might be better off (not that I think that it will be), but who in the UK will be better off. Everyone, or just a select few?
• What happens to those who do not benefit - does their standard of living stay the same or does it get worse? How much worse can it get?
• What happens when the 'left behind' and the 'just about managing' realise that they have been excluded from this wealth?

The final point is really important. The areas of the country that have been worst hit by the industrial policies of the last 30 years and by the current government's austerity programme were persuaded that everything is the fault of the EU and that leaving the EU will be the solution to their situation. The right wing Brexiters have succeeded in getting those most affected to vote for more of the same. This can only be a recipe for disaster. At some point they must realise that they have been conned - particularly if they are joined by a couple of million more whose jobs are at risk if Brexit destroys manufacturing and agriculture. The world's 5th largest economy already has food banks and 14 million people (23%) living below the poverty line. Brexit is not going to make life better for these people, and they are not going to wait around for 50 years for the benefits that Rees-Mogg hopes might emerge.

The ERG and Raab's Britannia Unchained promoters want to sell the UK to the highest bidder (probably the USA's corporations), remove all regulations and turn the country into 'Singapore on Thames.'

Singapore is not a good model to aspire to. Huge wealth sitting next to grim poverty. Demonisation of the poor with little if any welfare provision for the poorest. A political dictatorship in which dissenters are ostracised, imprisoned and 'disappear'. Rather like Eastern Europe before 1990, just with a different political flavour.