Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

We were a lot better prepared for the Millenium bug, and we only had to check software for a specific date. We didn't have to renegotiate the details contained in 700 plus treaties. I know that some say the risk was overstated and I think that was true, but my firm at the time also used it as a good reason to update older software, which they would probably have soldiered on with for a few more years with it getting clunkier and clunkier.

I don't think anything will make me personally agree with Brexit, but if we had a proper plan of what needed to be done, how it needed to be done and with realistic time scales, instead of silly slogans and downright lies, then it would be a lot less of the potential disaster it looks to be.

No deal brexit is as bad for the EU as it is for the UK
Sorry but that is just not the case.

The other 27 countries will still have their free market trade with each other.
The other 27 countries will still have their 96 trade deals with the rest of the world.

The UK will have no deals or trading arrangements with anybody.

As a scientist, I am generally sceptical of qualitative data, as it is easy to manipulate and generally based on opinion. I have seen whole papers spun on dodgy qualitative data that was frankly untrue. Now if you have some quantitative data, that would genuinely be appreciated. Brexit needs some accurate, non-biased, non politicised number crunching.

“The UK will have no deals or trading arrangements with anybody.”

Utter tosh!! God, this is why it is impossible to have a debate on the consequences of Brexit

Where’s your quantitative data?

Gilda
The Millennium bug was indeed well prepared for and many systems could be relatively easily checked in advance. Of course big databases could have had issues. I was working with systems that used computers but it was relatively easy to wind forward and see if things still worked, and it was hardly critical anyway'.
In some respects it was 'hyped up', partly because it sounded technical and not everyone understood the possible result.
The trouble with Brexit is that although some 'outcomes' are hoped for there is no one real plan and discussion as to how it might come about.

Frankunderwood
If there is a No Deal Brexit, the UK will have no deals.

At present it has no deals other than as part of the EU.
If Brexit day passes without an EU deal, at that moment, the UK will have no deals of its own.
Therefore it will have no agreed trading terms with any country for a period of time.

I shall leave now for you to discuss amongst yourselves how catastrophic Brexit will be to the UK (while ignoring the potential cost to the EU and deceiving yourselves it will have zero impact on them)

Talkin i guess all of the civil servants in the process of negotiating those deals outside of the EU would chose to disagree

A catastrophic Brexit will be bad for those Europeans who trade with the UK
but it will be much much worse for the UK

If you think that the UK WILL have trade deals in place after a hard Brexit, could you provide your source for that view?

If we leave with no deal, who will we have trade agreements with then?

all of the civil servants in the process of negotiating those deals outside of the EU
Link please

just that its not actually legal to be doing so just yet

No deal doesn't need to get through parliament. It's simply the default position at 23h00 on 29/3 if no withdrawal agreement has been signed.

It's not as simple as that. As things stand, it's up to the Speaker whether or not to allow a vote on the prospect of No Deal and it's inconceivable as things stand that he wouldn't do that. The Government of course can choose not to table a motion but in reality the ramifications of heading into No Deal and sidelining Parliament would be significant. The legislation that passed in June was totally unsatisfactory but in practice there's probably enough there to ensure Parliamentary scrutiny in some way. If for any reason a motion isn't brought I suspect the next step would be a No Confidence vote.

There is a report about the port of Rotterdam's preparedness for Brexit. I read it this morning but it says how much the Dutch expect to lose in their economy as a result of Brexit. I think one line said it would cover the costs of an extra 1000 teachers which would be preferable to having to upgrade the port to handle the extra staff and facilities, that are already being trained and the new IT systems are being checked in November.
In contrast the UK hasn't finished farting about deciding how in/out/sideways Brexit may or may not be.

Will the EU not miss the money we give to them? Genuine question, not goady!

And Mrs May is DEMANDING she gets respect from the EU!

while ignoring the potential cost to the EU and deceiving yourselves it will have zero impact on them

Not one person has said this. Everyone knows our leaving the Eu will also impact the Eu. If you have to resort to lying...

I'm expecting and preparing for medium-term price rises of around 20%, petrol shortages and difficultly getting certain specialist goods and services (eg trained nurses, medicines). I think house prices will fall and there'll be job losses and a rolling back on workers' rights. I also believe the Tories will use any unrest or nervousness to double down with austerity measures and sell off whatever remaining things we have (NHS, schools) to private US firms under guise of "remaining globally relevant" desperately needing new friends

I cope best when I prepare as much as I can, so I'll concentrate on that and try not to panic.

lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-legal-guide/wto-and-international-trade/negotiating-international-trade-treaties-before-exit

Ciderbrains
Yes, they will. It is 18% of the EU budget.
BUT
They have a new budget round in 18 months so will rejig.

And remember that the EU budget is teeny compared with the economies of the contributor countries -
Germany and France have already worked out how much extra they will pay and judged that the "Four Freedoms" are worth it.

I repeat: No deal brexit is as bad for the EU as it is for the UK, so while this is of OUR making, it is also in the EUs interest to negotiate a deal

Maybe, but I doubt it. I live in the Netherlands. Since the Brexit referendum we have been preparing by lowering taxes for companys to get more companys to come over here. We have also made more trade deals with China. Oh, we will take an economic hit of course but we have spent the past two years trying to minimise it. Whereas the UK still doesn't know how they are going to do Brexit. Also, the economic problem on the EU side will be divided roughly over 27 countries, who all have had time to prepare for it.

Helmet, Talkin posted
“No deal brexit is as bad for the EU as it is for the UK^
Sorry but that is just not the case.

The other 27 countries will still have their free market trade with each other.
The other 27 countries will still have their 96 trade deals with the rest of the world.“

I may have many failings but I don’t tend to knowingly lie...

Will the EU not miss the money we give to them
I haven't got a good answer to that. I suspect that the time they will save in dealing with us may seem like good value to them.

It costs individual tax payers about 78p a week.

All this fuss over the cost of 2 Kit Kats a week.

The Dutch are estimated to be likely to be losing around £400 per person per year due to Brexit by 2030.

Where is the lie in my post ?

What impact will Brexit have on trade between Spain and Portugal? Or France and Italy? or Germany and Austria?
Or between Germany and China? or France and the USA?