Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

There is also the important fact that the members of the EU have said 'oh shit this is happening, how can we minimise damage to ourselves' and are getting on with it, having made plans. Meanwhile in camp Westminster,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,???

This is the piece about Rotterdam:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/22/rotterdam-prepared-for-worst-after-brexit

Clear that whilst the Dutch are prepared for it to be a nuisance they are not at all interested in threatening the Single Market and certainly not going to punish their own governments for taking a tough line. Fox etc have done so much damage with their slavish eagerness to turn UK into a low tax, low standard sweatshop, that is the danger they see.

I do think that a lot of people on these Brexit threads think that the EU is fulltime concerned about Brexit. Of course we are sorry to see you leave but most of us respect your referendum. We are mostly busy with EU stuff really. I hope there will be a deal for you but I do see some arrogance that the UK should receive favouritissm over other non-EU countries. Which is severely unfair. Either do a Norway or accept that if you're out (which the EU didn't choose for or want!!!) we will treat you the same as the others who are too.

Has anyone else heard that some people think that 'no deal' means 'no brexit' ?

Oh no, surely not!!!!

The Dutch are estimated to be likely to be losing around £400 per person per year due to Brexit by 2030.

Brexit has already cost the average British worker one week's wages - or cost the average household £900 - and the UK has not yet left.
www.theweek.co.uk/93785/how-much-money-has-brexit-cost-the-uk

I read it on twitter so it's definitely true Jason118 But on a reasonably reliable feed.

I can understand people thinking that, that we would just return to what we had before the vote. Hope no one does think that.

A useful link FrankUnderwood but where are those deals, which were going to be so easy, which we are not prevented from negotiating? Are the ready to be up and running on 30th March 2019? I recall that May rushed off to India with great fanfare, but slunk back without a deal because a key issue for them was more visas for their workers. Where is the deal with the US? It seems to be dependent on lowering food production standards and allowing American firms to cherry pick the bits of the NHS they want. Now I can believe that this is a deal which has been made and is ready to go, but the Tories are keeping under wraps.

@FrankUnderwoodsWife

No deal brexit is as bad for the EU as it is for the UK

As bad for the EU? I'll let a famous politician spell it out for you:

“We export more to Ireland than we do to China, almost twice as much to Belgium as we do to India, and nearly three times as much to Sweden as we do to Brazil. It is not realistic to think we could just replace European trade with these new markets”

“In a stand-off between Britain and the EU, 44 per cent of our exports is more important to us than eight per cent of the EU’s exports is to them. The economic arguments are clear. Being part of a 500-million trading bloc is significant for us. One of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe.” ‘

“The reality is that we do not know on what terms we would win access to the single market. We do know that in a negotiation we would need to make concessions in order to access it, and those concessions could well be about accepting EU regulations, over which we would have no say, making financial contributions, just as we do now, accepting free movement rules, just as we do now, or quite possibly all three combined. It is not clear why other EU member states would give Britain a better deal than they themselves enjoy.”

Now the fun part - who gave this speech in May 2016?

while ignoring the potential cost to the EU and deceiving yourselves it will have zero impact on them

Not one person has said this.

Talkinpeace certainly didn’t say that.

tbh I think the EU27 will be thrilled when they get shot of us.

Who could blame them.

isitmybathtimeyet

There are only two producers of chlorine in the world

Really? The UK produces chlorine in Runcorn?

who gave this speech in May 2016?

It’s going to be Theresa isn’t it? :head meet wall:

@Buteo @Isitmybathtimeyet

www.eurochlor.org/facts-figures-glossary/chlorine-plants-in-europe.aspx

( The UK produces chlorine in Runcorn?) And a lot of hot air in Wesminster.

Wasn't there a problem last summer when half the plants went and shut down for maintenance at the same time?

Benjaminbuttonschild

That’s the list of European producers. There are producers in the US, Canada, India, China etc.

I’d be very surprised if there is only 2 producers of chlorine worldwide - the raw materials are not exactly uncommon.

Intrigued as to how chlorine is used in cremation as well.

Maybe it was a typo?

Wasn't there a problem last summer when half the plants went and shut down for maintenance at the same time?

That was carbon dioxide.

Genuine question - does anyone think we can bring back manufacturing to sufficient levels in the U.K. in order to be a big global competitor. Not being goady, I just would like some opinions. I see the Leave camp usually say things like 'buy british' and that we can start to manufacture again like we used to. But surely we don't have the infrastructure to do so?

We are primarily a service industry now, as a lot of manufacturing went to mainland Europe or was bought out by foreign investors. So I wonder could we ever up our production output to its previous levels?

Not trying to be goady, just want someone who has a better understanding than me to see what could potentially eventually happen.

@Buteo it was just me checking out whether there was actually only 2 producers of chlorine. Turns out there's loads just in Europe alone. I would have thought it would have been fairly easy to produce too.

@Devilishpyjamas

Correct. Theresa May, who is demanding respect, flexibility, compromise and so on.

She knows that she said this. Barnier, Tusk, Macron, Merkel and the others all read English and know that she said this. She knows that they know that she said this. But still she decided to lecture them last week.

@Benjamin
Good question, the answer is no.
The UK cannot produce enough food so agriculture, in terms of major export is out.
We don't have sufficient mineral wealth to be 'relevant'.
Manufacturing is 'globalised'. The engine for a Mini, produced in Swindon goes across the channel 3 or 4 times before it appears in a car. (seems bonkers but it must be the best way!).
Britain can do 'HiTech' but that usually involves serious inward investment and collaboration with other countries.
So, although it sounds like doing the UK down, it can never be a 'powerhouse' especially when wages have to be lower than countries like China to make things competitive.
Increased tariffs by not being in CU/SM automatically place us around 10% less economically viable than Europe.

Benjaminbuttonschild s’okay, I got that. It’s such a common chemical.

Still can’t work out how chlorine is used in cremation - definitely intrigued!

I don't think the UK has been able to feed itself for something like 200 years now.

Industries like textiles were losing out to far east competition in the late sixties. We could perhaps have retained some of this work by going for high quality goods, but this would have required investment in the latest machinery. It didn't happen.

I went round what is now the BMW mini factory in Cowley in the early 1990s. I think then, most of the car was actually produced in the UK and it started with sheets of metal being brought in, and gradually turned into a car. The last stage of the production line was when someone got into the car, turned the key and drove it off the line.

I think this was the time when JIT systems were just beginning to come into the UK. It would be interesting to re-visit to see what has changed.

Thanks 1st and Peregrina.

I'm playing devils advocate here and maybe I've missed something, but I keep thinking maybe over time there will be a global shift and that the U.K. will be seen as a 'place for cheap labour' due to economic downturn and maybe companies who once outsourced production to say, India or somewhere will migrate back here as we will be seen as the cheap labour force. Maybe then we will bolster manufacturing again? Not sure how that helps in the short to medium term.