Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

@Peregrina
The BBC? had a short series of programmes about 2 ? years ago where they followed the production of a mini. It might be on YOOOOtOOObe

@Peregrina I'm assuming the metal (steel or aluminium or whatever) was ored and produced in the U.K. too?

@Benjamin
There is cheap and there is CHEAP. Although things are gradually changing in China , Bangladesh and elsewhere but the rates that are paid would hardly cover food in the UK never mind housing.

peregrina an old boss of mine told me about the good ol’ days of Mini production (pre BMW) - sounded a bit wild, with apprentices racing the minis around the factory

UK had Iron ore, tin and copper but not aluminium. The wrong sort of rocks!

IIRC Australia is 'big' on aluminium where they dig big holes for it. You could pop most of London into the hole quite easily.

I don't know where the ores were mined, but I think the steel was produced in the UK. I think the body parts came from another associated factory.

One of our problems is that we have an aging population - which is most definitely not the problem in South East Asia, so we can't go back to having industry which relies on young physically fit labour.

@1tisILeClerc that's depressing We sold off a lot of our assets decades ago, even our rail is German owned. If we still owned them I probably would feel as nervous about Brexit as I do. It's bloody crap.

Australia is big on mining for metals in general, they have the natural resources in abundance

Manufacturing was offshored from the UK during the 1980s - mostly to developing countries with much cheaper labour. And this wasn’t just down to Thatcher’s policies, it’s a function of developed countries. France did the same.

One of our problems is that we have an aging population - many of which voted Leave at the expense of younger generations. Then they have the nerve to say younger people have no experience of life outside the EU and that the younger generation should be grateful to them and show them some respect

Disclaimer: yes, I am aware that not all the older generation voted Leave - but a vast majority did.

True @Buteo but the trickle-down economy didn't work. The richest got richer and the bankers ran amok

I am one of the older generation but I most emphatically did not vote Leave - as people must be aware of from my postings.

I have certainly heard Leave voting older people say that 'we managed before', but conveniently forgetting how the work was disappearing overseas even then, and forgetting the things we didn't manage.

I am going to have to come home to the UK in May next year. Secretly I am hoping the Brexit civil war will prevent me from coming back.

I am a remainer.
If Heathrow grounds the whole world grounds. So I am hopeful that common sense will prevail (unlike 2016).

If Heathrow grounds the whole world grounds.

Heathrow is the busiest airport in Europe, however Paris is second, Amsterdam is third, Frankfurt is fourth, Madrid is sixth, Barcelona is seventh and Munich is ninth. The EU has some capacity to take on some of the traffic...

On a worldwide scale, which might be more telling, Of busiest airports, Heathrow is seventh, Paris is tenth, Amsterdam 11th and frankfurt 14th. So the EU still has a lot of capacity to divert some planes.

To break it down more for you (I'm in the train so have time for this, plus Ienjoy learning this stuff) Heathrow handles 78 million passangers a year, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt handle 202,5 million passangers. Which is over a factor of 2,5 more.

How bad?
Civil Contingency's Act 2004

Signed off and ready to go.

This is Britain's Patriot Act. At a stroke democracy could be replaced by totalitarianism

The powers available to the government and state agencies would be truly draconian. Cities could be sealed off, travel bans introduced, all phones cut off, and websites shut down. Demonstrations could be banned and the news media be made subject to censorship. New offences against the state could be "created" by government decree

www.theguardian.com/society/2004/jan/07/politics.terrorism

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/libertycentral/2008/dec/16/civil-contingencies-act

No more Mumsnet!

@Peregrina, apologies my post wasn't aimed at you. My parents are of the older generation and they too are staunch remainers so I try not to tar people with the same brush.

A lot of them comments from the older Leave camp seem to be exactly that though: we managed before we'll manage again, the EU made sure all our manufacturing went to mainland Europe, we are being told what to do by unelected beurocrats, we must take our country back etc. And when anyone younger dares to question them they are simply met with "you've only ever known life within the constraints of the EU, show some respect to your elders, we won get over it" on a loop.

One lady on FB even told people "Do not buy from Lidl or Aldi, they are German". Great, sound advice there 🤦🏻‍♀️

Benjamin A "vast majority" of over 65s did not vote leave. Sixty-four per cent is a (deeply regrettable) majority. Under no definition is it "vast", which is normally set at 80+ %.
You can certainly use the words "vast majority" for the number of over sixties Labour members who would vote remain in a second referendum. (88% YouGov).

The vote was years and years ago.

It doesn't matter who voted what then.

The demographic for leave 'win' disappears in January 2019.

Just how bad?

I understand the odds of no deal have gone up to 95%.

Wonder how many wrongly are being told that means no 'brexit'?

This time next year I wonder how we'll look back at what we could have done?

That is fine if it no longer matters who voted what in 2016 woman. However if people are still going to mention it, then I think statistical accuracy matters.

Fine, two thirds. Still a majority and all with silly reasons.

@sargeantpfeffer you are right! I stand corrected. I did mean quantitative

I did a lot of reading last night and I think a timeline of events could be interesting in managing expectations.
Personally I think it will go something like this:

Year 1 -
The UK gets a small surge inGDP, the economy grows, unemployment falls and as goods and services have a forward timeline it appears to be business as usual.
The leavers celebrate and boast about success.

Year 2 - 5
Businesses who have been affected at this point have infrastructure and the ability to leave the UK
Unemployment rises, GDP falls and the cost of living rises. Life is hard for many, and the initial euphoria of leaving is replaced with the reality of our decisions.
Remains are justified in pointing out the folly of a a divide nation hurts us all

Year 6-9
Trade negotiations and deals come to fruition and overseas investments start to increase, the workforce has adapted it’s skills to where demand is.
Both sides of the divide come to terms with our new reality and other political pitfalls face us.

I am genuinely interested in hearing what others believe our short, medium a long term outlook could be.