Westministenders: Gin O'Clock

[RedToothBrush]

After disaster after Salzberg and a very predictable humilation over the Chequers Deal which the ERG reject, moderate Brexiteers reject, Remainers reject and the EU reject....

May does a press conference...

...which is delayed by a power shortage inside No. 10.

And....

they need us more than we need them Using the 'divorce' metaphor with the leave demographic has been a genius move. Makes no actual international trade sense, but fits the infantile narrative perfectly. Labour Leaver Mitchell, is unable to spot the irony in expecting humanitarian aid from EU when we're trapped and hungry, when we've sat on our hands rather than do our neighbourly duty to the EU27 with the 1m refugees. (which will have helped the rise of FN in ports like Calais?) @AdamBienkov
Austin Mitchell says there’s nothing to fear from a no-deal Brexit because “They’re not going to let the asteroids hit us and drive us into the abolition of civilisation” #Lab2018

As an offshoot at looking at the youtube 'comedy linked last night with Mat on the Titanic, I watched one about Mr poser? with a bunch of economists in suits giving a very clear run down of the overview of what is happening. One thing that should concern the UK is an anecdote about Chancellor Kohl. Poser (?) happened to be in a meeting with Herr Kohl in 197(?) when the UK declared it was out of the ERM. on hearing this, Mr Kohl said 'OK they want to leave, no problem' and then continued with tea and cake. Poser then commented that although car manufacturing is big in Germany (and plants in the UK) if it is not profitable they will simply shut a factory and tidy up the mess of redundancies afterwards. It is treated like a bee sting, ouch, but carry on. The UK is putting itself out on the street in it's pants. The EU is in no obligation to help. I have a horrible feeling that the UK gov (?) is putting too much faith in expecting the EU to budge and that it will make great deals. Of course the EU needs to be diplomatic but it isn't a soft touch.

Misti What worried me was the reportedly significant number of young voters the NF has / had, millions of them
Is that correct or wildly exaggerated?

In the UK, the EDL and DFLA could get thousands of young people in the streets, but imo a fascist party atm would not receive millions of votes
That may be because of the UK fptp system - our mainstream conservative party is hard right, so takes many of those voters]

If the govt screws up no deal prepping and post-Brexit there really is chaos and disaster, then of course fascist and communist might become mainstream,
but - again because of fptp - possibly the unscrupulous pandering of Tory and Labour to the worst human instincts would escalate to the extent that they transform to fascist and communist parties, without a name change.

Leclerc I gather the deliberate lack of support over the ERM was because MrsT had seriously pissed off the EU on previous issues.
So, not exactly "punishment" but when the UK was in a serious situation and needed specific help, the EU didn't.

The article in the Guardian about Rotterdam's readiness if translated to all the EU countries 'interface' with the UK should also be a worry. From the outset they have speculated and calculated what departure will mean to them, and have spent loads implementing the necessary changes. It is raising taxes in Europe and as the work is about a year or more towards completion it will be hitting the public in Europe. Would the 'Joe public' family in Chipping Sodbury be happy to be told their tax has gone up £400 SPECIFICALLY to cover some government action in Albania?

@BCF My comments are obviously not really specifics but an attempt to say that if/when the UK gov makes a balls up the idea that the EU will run in to save us, particularly on good terms may well be false. The EU is already part into the mindset that the UK has gone, and they are paying for it now. The UK has been an 'irritant' for most of it's association with the EU (actually forever WRT Europe).

The article in the Guardian about Rotterdam's readiness if translated to all the EU countries 'interface' with the UK should also be a worry. From the outset they have speculated and calculated what departure will mean to them, and have spent loads implementing the necessary changes. It is raising taxes in Europe and as the work is about a year or more towards completion it will be hitting the public in Europe.

So TL;DR, it might now cost the EU more for a deal than no-deal ?

The moronity of the Breiteers continues apace. They've managed to ensure that there's no incentive for the EU to work fro a deal at all.

Misti What worried me was the reportedly significant number of young voters the NF has / had, millions of them
Is that correct or wildly exaggerated?

I don't know tbh - young people with kipperish views are more likely to be melenchon fans IME. There may be some young NF voters in very disadvantaged post-industrial communities and on the Med coast, but I think the demographic is generally older.

Sorry, quote fail there.

First bit was a quote of BigChoc.

{So TL;DR, it might now cost the EU more for a deal than no-deal ?} I suppose it could be getting near that point. After all places like Rotterdam have shelled out many millions to make upgrades, and hired and are training up about 1000 new staff. If the UK says 'OK we will remain, or even Customs Union/SM will they be made redundant in April? I gather the UK has put some traffic cones and portaloos alongside the M20 in their bid for preparedness.

After all places like Rotterdam have shelled out many millions to make upgrades, and hired and are training up about 1000 new staff.

Which - rinse and repeat - can be replicated in other places. Frankfurt immediately springs to mind.

It's looking odds-on that the only real choice is between Remain and no deal. Thanks entirely to the Brexiteers.

The Brexiteers want no deal. Those pulling the strings will make oodles of money, and they neither know nor care about 95% of the country. If the country becomes an unpleasant place for them to live then they will scarper to somewhere else. {new paragraph} If we manage to Remain, then gradually we will see all our special deals eroded.

@Mother I think Northbound will become 4 lanes wide (dual carriageway each direction with new centre barrier so that southbound will be the new lorry park. I presume it will need massive security to protect lorries from stowaway rats deserting the sinking ship.

I could see the 'no deal' document including a massive bill from the EU for all the work that the EU 'facilities' have put in. It might have the UK Gov saying 'we won't pay' in which case the EU can turn around and say 'OK, don't eat'.

(what is going on with the paragraph stuff? I am guessing this is a MN problem).

Could be ?

Might be ?

Might not be ?

I will start to negotiate my own deal with the EU as per the no-deal note on air travel today. As you would. [facepalm]

Do you think you can use your British passport in England and Schengen-passport in the EU in the same trip?

Corbyn and Melenchon know that a male youth wing is very useful in their sorts of movements. Including Corbyn's MRA youth wing. Mother Motorways and public transport in the south of england barely function as it is. (2.5 hours to do 58 miles on M25 last Saturday ) In the first week of April 2019, I wonder if private transport will even be allowed on motorways, if priority is to get supplies round the country.

DGR

Remember folks, 17 Million voted for this shit. 'We won'.

Morning, MNHQ!

There is other stuff going on with my laptop, have I been hacked by arch brexiteers?

Ink stains on the vellum ?