Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

I think I must have missed something. Can someone explain the reasoning behind this talk of fuel shortages? I can't imagine anything Brexit-linked which would possibly cause fuel shortages. Can someone explain please?

Good question!
The UK should have fuel oil and petrol reserves for 3 months and although the cost may well increase there is no real reason for none to be available. There could be an issue with strikes or similar disruption but that is about it.

I don't think fuel shortages are likely but the knock on effect of Just In Time problems are hard to predict.

Martin Rosenbaum @rosenbaum6
On #WeekinWestminster tomorrow 11am Radio4, @paulwaugh talks to Michael Heseltine, @Guto_Harri & @AndrewGimson about the uncertain prospects of BorisJohnson, and to Tom McNally, @PedderSophie & @JolyonMaugham about the uncertain prospects of a new centre party

Guto Harri @Guto_Harri
I’ve said no to countless requests but finally had to articulate my concerns to @paulwaugh @BBCRadio4 that @BorisJohnson is self-destructing, as well as damaging the U.K. Tragic but true.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Guto was Boris’s right hand man for 4 years. That is going to hurt.

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
EXC: Grayling will next Thursday unveil the deputy chairman of John Lewis to lead a 12 month review into Britain’s terrible railways - and re-nationalisation is not ruled out.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7262907/transport-secretary-train-probe-state-control/

@tnewtondunn
Excl: PM’s senior aide accused by MPs of branding Brexit Secretary “a f*ing nightmare” as tensions spiral over negotiations strategy;

and re-nationalisation is not ruled out

Well, that should make Corbyn happy enough to sod off back to his allotment and let someone who actually wants to oppose the govt be the leader of the opposition.

The Sun can also reveal that Mr Barnier wants to police a new trade border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain with technology to make it as invisible as possible.

He is billing the tactic – known as Maximum Facilitation, and pinched from Brexiteers - as a new solution to the bitter impasse over how to keep the Irish border open.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-has-dug-his-political-grave-with-suicide-vest-jibe-former-aide-declares-guto-harri-heseltine_uk_5b9c10c3e4b013b0977aaa75?ps
Boris Johnson 'Self-Destructing' And Dragging Country Down With Him, Former Right-Hand Man Says
Guto Harri says 'sexually incontinent' Boris dug his 'political grave' with suicide vest jibe

We're living in strange times when Tories are saying F* business (well Johnson) but talking of Nationalising railways. They might just come out in support of the NHS next. Well, they would if they saw sufficient votes in it.

Wee comment on twitter:
"Back in my native Belfast today & struck by very widespread acceptance among (middle class) former colleagues & relatives of both religions that United Ireland now almost inevitable (& not especially unwelcome) due to Brexit"

The Boundary Commission is due to report any day now about its new constituency proposals. I wonder which party will benefit?

You can put your postcode in and see your new suggested constituency. The boundary of mine has changed a lot.

www.bce2018.org.uk/

boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/

I don't think fuel shortages are likely but the knock on effect of Just In Time problems are hard to predict.

Regarding fuel I can't think of a single connection with 'Just In Time problems' - it's an entirely separate distribution chain as far as I can see.

One of my customers who is peripherally involved with the 'last mile' distribution of oil was saying today that he's worried because the only supplier he can find in the whole world of a particular type of polypropylene-covered cable used on fuel tankers is his current supplier based in France. Things like that might possibly cause a few of us to get our supplies of Aga oil a couple of days later than we'd like but apart from trivial issues like that I don't see a problem on that front.

Your actual 'Just In Time' deliveries are mainly just planned to avoid paying for, and storing, too much inventory. If a journey's expected to take an extra 3 days then the goods are just produced and dispatched 3 days earlier - it's as simple as that. The only losers are either the supplier or the customer - one of them has to either pay 3 days earlier in the cycle or wait to be paid 3 days later. The real issue there is people and plant (drivers, trucks and trailers) tied up in the extended supply lines. If a 3 day turnaround journey now takes 6 days then it needs twice the resource (at twice the cost) to cover it.

Perishables are another matter - you can't just send lettuces 3 days earlier. Somebody was telling me today that we can get lettuces etc flown in from India and Kenya within 24 hours of being picked. I really can't imagine relying on salad from Kenya instead of the Netherlands. I think one plane-load flown 4,000 miles would replace about 3 truck-loads driven 100 miles. The extra pollution is one thing but if all our food was brought in that way to avoid the delays at the ports it would just shift the delays to the airports. It's all down to the 'per consignment' paper shuffling and the occasional physical checks.

I shouldn't have said fuel.

The New Statesman article I linked to sated power shortages - far more specific.

My apologies.

However, wouldn't it be fuel shortages causing that? I genuinely don't know, so am interested.

Hester Under the new boundaries, Boris's seat would become marginal and IDS's seat too

Also, the seats of Corbyn & Abbott would be carved up & combined, so one of them would need to find a new seat, or retire.

However, those high-profile names had the same problem with the previous Boundary Commission proposals

The big difference is that the previous proposal - rejected by the Tories - would have meant the DUP losing seats and Sinn Fein gaining

These new boundaries give an advantage to the Tory party e.g. theoretically, with voting exactly as the 2017 GE, they would have about 75 seats more than Labour

BUT
It reduces the number of seats to about the lowest for about 200 years, so all parties have fewer seats
Hence several MPs are bound to be without a seat, including both Tories & Labour

So, the govt will still have problems getting the bill for these boundaries passed

cat The UK is not atm self-sufficient in electricity, so imports 5-10% from the EU, via "connectors" which can be switched on/off from one country to another

There is an EU electricity "market" with the legally binding rule - on the previous insistence of the UK ! - that if there is a shortage in EU supply, then EU members must be supplied first, before 3rd countries

This could lead to post-Brexit power cuts, or rationing, at times of peak useage, e.g. a long winter.
(BUT, it the UK loses a lot of manufacturing, this might avoid the problem !)

Without EU electricity imports, there would likely be a serious shortfall in NI electricity in winter
The emergency planning for that is reportedly that the military would bring back thousands of its portable generators

• from places like Afghanistan -

and put them on boats, offshore around NI

That would be so complicated and clearly a security nightmare - all those boats to be protected from dissident Republicans etc who might choose to disrupt the supply, or just want to take out obvious targets of opportunity.

One of the fun things for the vulture capitalists is that 'no deal' means 'no idea'. We can't know what power, food and medicine shortages there will be, as no other living government has done this to its populace recently. (except Uncle Joe) The petrol strike and 2011 riots are the only recent reference points. Who trusts them to distribute emergency fuel stocks equitably?

One important way Britain did defend this country so long from nazis last time, was by egalitarian rationing, which actually improved the health of the poorest.

None of this anarchy makes us a security risk
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/novichok-attack-heathrow-airport-salisbury-poisoning-amesbury-skripal-a8476616.html

What a novichok attack on Heathrow Airport would look like
Exclusive: Experts say thousands could come into contact with deadly nerve agent if it was used at airport or in terror attack. 'The effect would be massive

Football competition protestor has been poisoned.
www.theguardian.com/world/video/2018/sep/13/pussy-riot-member-in-hospital-after-suspected-poisoning-says-band-video

Banning 'Best for Britain' from tory conference seems important somehow.

@JMPSimor
I've suddenly realised why there are so few Tory MPs standing up and speaking the truth about Brexit. If this is what the Tory party does to outsiders, it must be terrifying to be an insider who wants to debate and even to disagree #trotskytories

Rule of law seems to have been replaced by something else too.

@JMPSimor
We are now in the absurd situation of going ahead with brexit based on an advisory referendum which would have been declared void had it been binding

@JolyonMaugham
Cummings spent >10% of his total spending relying on advice given by the EC. That spending was unlawful. That advice was wrong. And it was given only to Leave. Remain would have spent, too, if it had received the advice. These are the facts and they would shame a banana republic.

And like cat we watch in astonishment as the populace nods along.
Limits on freedom of speech and the law is no longer blind........

@Fishes
Regarding specialised cable from France, it is not actually a big deal, just a bit more paperwork. Apart from initial hassle there will be no problem getting anything.

Not read the article just the headline but it is good to see MP Kate Hoey really helping to sort out the Brexit mess by complaining that women MPs should not 'dress down' when in parliament.

woman The real worry is that although the UK weathered issues like the petrol strike or miners' strike in the past,
these were single events in an otherwise normally functioning country,
which still had all its international trade treaties, agencies etc

What happens with multiple crises - 10 / 20 / 100 different ones ? - happening simultaneously ?

especially when a country has just set itself adrift from the world and massively pissed of its continental neighbours

What about the problems noone planned for, that were overlooked, because no modern industrialised country has ever risked anything like Brexit ?

I assume and hope that if there is no deal, then the govt / civil society will muddle through somehow,
but as we constantly receive new reports of govt stupidity and sheer nastiness, I am becoming increasinbgly worried

LeClerc, Fishes Any JIT supplies would be a big deal if trade is no longer "Frictionless"
There is serious danger of the ports becoming logjammed, if each lorry takes even an extra 2 minutes to go through

The govt could allow all imports in without checks, but British exports would still be checked - the EU must do this, if there is no legal deal, under WTO rules
That is what would cause the logjam

Emergency plans are reportedly that the govt would halt all exports for a while and only allow empty lorries etc to the ports,
to collect essential imports - food, meds - which would be waved through at the British end

Any firm wanting to import other goods would have to make its case to the govt that its goods should be the next priority

This would hopefully all be resolved within a few weeks - most likely the govt would do a sharp U-turn within 2 weeks and then sign any deal that Barnier has drsfted and ready in his back pocket

So, some companies with non-perishable goods are increasing stocks - with increased costs of warehousing - to tide them over

There may be shortages of some fresh foods though
and there is a lack of warehouse space for other goods

so here is another area when those in the know may have planned ahead and bought up space in advance to sell, for a nice little big earner

Genuine question to those in the know on this thread, are there any good mainly male forums discussing this? Got any links if there are?
The reporting on the Maugham case, particularly the Orwellian reverse spin on it is putting the media shut down in sharp relief. As is the acceptance of the no deal bloodbath coming. Apart from Richard North blogs has anyone seen anything else? If we're the main one, we have to wonder why that would be.

I'm amazed by the ignorance of well meaning labour and even remain on twitter, and also their inability to cross reference GC issues with labour's fundamentalism on brexit and anti semitism.

I am becoming increasinbgly worried
This country looks and is very very weak.

woman Even on women's forums, the Westministender threads are the exception.

I posted before that imo the nation has shut down its collective brain and believes the ruling class won't let anything really bad happen

Also, many people who may have made a terrible decision will ignore and deny as long as possible,
rather than admit they screwed the pooch,
especially if that decision was made because of political ID / nationalist feelz.

Post-Brexit UK constraints in EU energy market focus on power: EC

The UK will have to pay more

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/050218-post-brexit-uk-constraints-in-eu-energy-market-focus-on-power-ec

EU Stakeholder notice on energy supplies post-Brexit

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/noticetoostakeholdersbrexittenergymarkett_final.pdf

@BCF
My reply about a specific cable will not be a JIT issue as it is a specific item and although it may only be single sourced, it can be 'stockpiled' and is non perishable so presumably wholesalers of that sort of item can simply hold a bit more stock. For what I do, lead times of 6 - 12 weeks on some items are not uncommon.
@woman.
I am mildly curious about your possible interest in male oriented Brexit. One of the best bits about this thread and even most of the other Brexit threads is that it is mostly 'unisex' apart from the odd sharp line. I think it will be a bit like the so called 'global warming'. I do not see that as global worming but global climate change, where the weather patterns we were used to have now shifted. In a similar way Brexit will affect everyone in some ways.