Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

The Tory MEP leadership said before the Hungary vote that their MEPs were being whipped to vote against.
It is only since the vote - and the unexpected amount of condemnation within the UK - that Tory head office and govt are denying this

Maybe too, they realised that especially if they are heading for no-deal in March, Hungary can help v little
Hungary is very isolated within the EU and won't sway other countries, except possibly Poland's rightwing govt

Also, wheareas a post-Brexit trade deal can be vetoed by any member, it cannot be forced through by one

Mistigirl I do think that the absence of French-style revolt can be traced back to our FPTP system.

The unions are shamefully compliant and complicit.

Which is absolutely extraordinary when you think what Brexit is going to do.

The 'official' Left have gutted the anti-Brexit movement - by withdrawing support and, at worst, actually politicking against it (the rabid dogs on social media regularly paint it as anti-Progressive).

It's unbelievable.

By rights, there should be strikes by now, and grassroots-up education as to consequences.

But no.

And without that push - and I think that would be more effective than swinging polls or large, pleasant demonstrations - it just rolls on. Because the UK electorate ARE saying that, yes, they will tolerate anything.

Shortages in the NHS; job losses; businesses closing; price rises; reduced life chances for their children: that's now.

Massive cuts to infrastructure; large job losses; decreased worker's rights; diminished life chances for children; inequality shooting skywards: what's coming.

The UK public, morning until night; from week beginning to weekend, are proving that there is nothing to can do to us, no outrage to appalling, no blow to great - to us or our children - that we won't roll over and accept it all.

BigChoc I definitely read they were being whipped - and some time ago.

I was certainly aware that the Conservative group were going to vote against- it was discussed.

So I think you're right. I suppose the interesting bit is that someone, somewhere is considering the outcry problematic - and doing damage limitation.

Quite why they give a stuff about the outrage, I don't know. Surely not for domestic reasons? Let's face it, the UK electorate scarcely matters on this issue (and most have no idea anyway).

Interesting in the NS survey that most voters expected some consequences like queues and food price rises were likely,
but Leavers especially and even Remainers mostly didn't believe predictions of flights being stopped or house price crashes

So they don't believe that the luxuries & windfalls of good mc life will be much affected,
Maybe they refuse to believe in real damage to their lives - they can cope with 20% food price rises, but not with negative equity and no foreign vacations.

@women - Hans Rosling explains it better than I can (and there are lectures online about it) but essentially when infant mortality goes down (as it has throughout the world) families havr less children. The birth rate has already gone down throughout the world as a result and thr increase in population is due to people living longer.

The Electoral Commission let Vote Leave break EU referendum spending laws because the watchdog misinterpreted them, the High Court has ruled

In his judgement, Lord Justice Leggatt said the Electoral Commission had "misinterpreted the definition of 'referendum expenses'" as defined by the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45519676

the Elysée would be ashes by now
Yup. I think the brexists factored this in.

Pictures of prison warders' strikes at 54 jails across the country.
www.poauk.org.uk/index.php?breaking-news&newsdetail=20180914-118_day-of-protest-action

Would it be naughty to hope the strike spreads, and de thrones the Corbyn?

Under FPTP, unless one of the 2 main parties supports a policy or campaign, it won't happen
It is much easier for a "political cartel" to temporarily agree that a policy like Brexit offers them both great opportunities and hence to squash any opposition

Much more difficult under a PR system to do this, since parties are pushed to negotiate

The UK media & politicians mostly demonise PR as providing "weak" government, instead of the strong decisive leadership that FPTP allegedly provides us

A desire for a strong leader who doesn't have to compromise is often not a healthy sign
It also encourages the public to pack away their brains and wait for the leaders to solve all their problems

It encourages a child-like faith in the ruling class, even among many who hate their policies;
hence the refusal to believe that "they" will let anything really bad happen to the country

Yes, BigChoc.

But I also noticed that they hadn't accepted fuel shortages.

Also, and I think this is crucial, I noticed the survey didn't push the respondents into critical thinking.

I am totally with you as to the mindset - they're only thinking about an end to 'middle class frills'.

I strongly suspect there is a real block - a huge block - to thinking past that.

They're not seeing 'no flights' in terms of food and they're not seeing the macro impact on industry. And definitely not working conditions.

There is, I think, an issue there. I suspect it is the residual effect of the hugely successful 'guilt narrative' that Leave used. Initially, it was 'Remainers are middle class; we all live luxurious lives - we need to tighten our belts; we need to take the well-off down a peg or two.'

And now itstill has purchase in the secret, insidious narrative of 'This Vote was a punishment for not caring about inequality enough and enjoying consumerism and comfort. We have sinned. We repent and will undergo this flagellation as penance for our sins.'

It's nuts.

People are already dying with austerity. People will die as a result of Brexit. And our children are going to pay a huge price.

People need to wake the fuck up.

That's amazing, woman.

And extraordinary.

Dammit, if they have the backbone to strike ... I wish it would spread.

I can't understand why teachers aren't striking. R NHS workers protesting. Or massive protests outside DWP offices.

I guess people are too desperate, frightened and poor. Everyone waiting for a sign.

But, really, the shit we are putting up with ...

{It also encourages the public to pack away their brains and wait for the leaders to solve all their problems}
Exactly what at least a couple of the 'leavers' were arguing on MN a while back. We voted out and expect the government to organise doing it, while not exactly able to say what 'leave' means.

I think the new regs on strike action make them almost impossible to organise; v expensive. Plus most people have no experience of and striking or supporting strikers. It is clearly regarded as worse than a real crime amongst those who have strikers to thank for most H&S and human rights leg of the last 100 years. .

So that's why the PO union is doing an unofficial one. However it's a concerning security situation.

Squigglypig thank you. Happy news: healthy babies, smaller families.

The teaching unions have a problem (well many really). If staff go on strike they lose the days pay at an INCREASED rate. So being 'not at work' for one day loses them a day and a bit in pay.
Many, if not all are too 'professional' in that they are worried about the students (University and from probably year 6 or 7 upwards) and so combined it takes a lot to do. The NHS has a similar type of problem in that by and large the staff are too concerned with looking after patients so a 'strike' can only be a protest, often taken in their days or hours off. It's not like the miners strikes (when we had miners) where the whole operation would shut for a day or however long.

Sky reporting Labour will almost certainly vote against Shit Deal.

Failing to do analysis that this will almost certainly lead to No Deal.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/labour-would-likely-vote-down-any-brexit-deal-emily-thornberry-11497431

Still, Sky are light years ahead of the BBC in Brexit coverage.

I've realised that Laura Kuenssberg is shit as a political editor and would have been better suited to writing historical bodice-rippers set in the Tudor Court. She's a failed Phillipa Gregory, with about 1/16 of the talent.

She reduced Brexit (which is legal-social-economic and international relations stuff) to a Westminster Rom Com, all about gossip. She's too pathetically pleaded to be near the table, thrown scraps of chewed food, to do any serious analysis.

Not even a lapdog. A mongrel given a microphone and a large salary.

Pathetic.

@ woman and leClerc.

No words. I know.

It's just ... insane.

The silence. The supine silence. It's driving me bonkers.

The BBC has been 'nobbled'. Whatever they put on the internet version is minimal and a day later than even Sky. As I have said before the BBC is a weird entity of its own and is run by a leadership with it's own agenda, not necessarily that of the government.
I almost think that one or two days of general strike could ultimately be 'best' for the UK, given a long view. Gordon Brown was saying about sleepwalking into a mess and I think that something as drastic as 2 days 'off' might shock the UK into a degree of thought about what is likely to happen. The occasional strike here or there will not have sufficient 'bite'.
I state here publicly that I am not advocating such an action and that if there is a thinking member of government who is in a position to actually DO something positive then they should get their finger out and do it.

Due to immigration over the centuries, the UK is largely a nation of mongrels. Being so reduces the downsides of inbreeding.

Some of you might be interested in the RTE Brexit Republic podcast with Tony Connolly for another external perspective, it's pretty measured. Last week they had Dominic Grieve on, this week Gisela Stuart and Rotterdam Port experts...

www.rte.ie/news/2018/0913/993576-brexit-republic-podcast-episode-eight/

With regard to a general strike, maybe that's the only way to make the Govt take notice? We are all so frustrated but little protests and petitions don't seem to do much. (I'll still sign petitions and demonstrate though.)

Michael Stipe thinks we should 'mobilise'.

www.express.co.uk/videos/553386/Newsnight-R-E-M-s-Michael-Stipe-claims-Brexit-is-NOT-good

As much of a Remainer as I am, Michael Stipe should mind his own goddam business.

Haha Bellini you may have a point! But perhaps he's right?

Squigglypig really good points wrt regard to population control. Hans Rosling was really clear, had foresight and was actually positive about the future of the human race if I remember right.

Here are his 6 ideas about population control, which make sense:

1. The entire world is moving towards health and wealth.
2. There’s a connection between child survival rates and a strong economy.
3. Family planning never happens until there’s a reasonable expectation that each child will survive.
4. There’s a connection between poverty, survival rates, and family size.
5. As a result of ongoing poverty, the population of Africa is expanding brutally.
6. International aid is the most practical way to control world population and promote well-being, and we’re making progress.

And a corollary of number 5 is why we have economic migrants trying to come to Europe from Africa. That won't stop until they feel economically safe. Which is why number 6 is important.
(Unless climate change starts to cause desertification in North Africa and they can't stay there anyway.)

bigthink.com/robby-berman/hans-rosling-had-a-way-of-showing-the-meaning-of-data-well-miss-him

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/09/14/galileo_brexit_guidance/

Nestled among the mass publication of no-deal guidance yesterday was the UK government's vision for the future of the Brit satellite and space programmes if the country falls out of the EU with no pact in March.

The guidance is, unsurprisingly, grim.

(contd) ...

The only thing I would argue with is point 5 as I think it's too general: Africa is a continent and many of the countries within it are doing just fine by themselves - they would probably benefit from more trade with the rest if the world rather than aid. However I do agree that international aid and programmes to eradicate poverty all over the world can only be a good thing and lead to more stability for all of us.

I wonder how many millennial remainers feel slightly less pro-EU if they hear no-deal could lead to house prices dropping - by 35% ?