LeClerc JRM's figures - and May's promises of NHS help, continuation of subsidies for farms, research etc - don't add up
Both plans far exceed the supposed saving of current UK budget contributions that they claim to be using.
Also, they don't consider the loss to the economy that Brexit has already caused - reduction in growth already amounts to €20 bn, nearly 3 x annual UK net contributions to the EU -
and the likely much larger cost to the exonomy after Brexit, expecially if no deal
The exit bill is €25-30bn and is for budget commitments already made
As I posted, it only reaches €40-45 bn if there are additional payments for a transition period to 31 Dec 2020
... which can only happen if there is a WA
The exit / transition bills are one-off figures, unless transition is extended, but would reportedly be spread over a few years,
so atm we don't know the annual exit costs or for how long.
Summing up: best case looks like €45 bn total annual loss (= bills + economic loss) for the next few years
Worst case: R North has estimated additionally up to 400bn trade is at risk.
Obviously most of that won't be actually lost, but losing even 10% for the first few years - quite possible -
would spike unemployment, spike the trade deficit, reduce govt tax income, while increasing the requirement for welfare spending.
So, Brexiter politicians pushing no deal / WTO are either delusional or sociopathic liars & disaster capitalists.