Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

HermioneGoesBackHome great post.

The crazy thing about regional deprivation is that a major reason the UK has a bigger difference than even the USA
is the mad de-industrialisation of the early Thatcher years, which was based on the theories of hard right economists like Minford

... and the expression of anger from those same regions has led to them supporting Brexit, the ERG and hence that same Minford,
who has the same policies as he had in the 1980s and openly talks of Brexit destroying the remaining UK manufacturing

• as acceptable damage, because that sector of the economy is not important to him, compared to the City of London (where the "liberal elites" work)

The ERG contains people whom even MrsT regarded as batshit and kept away from power

mrs8 Dc1 seems to be a similar age than your dc.

We’ve received a letter from school proposing a trip in April.... In the EU....

Schools atm are still going on as of nothing would happen. I think they cant afford to start acting as if there will be massive upheaval from April 19. Too risky because of the potential reaction if both the children and the parents. (You can be surevthat if the schools start saying there will be an issue with the exams it will be their fault, not the government/Brexit/theirs to have voted NO in the referendum)

And the bottom line is that the schools can’t do a lot to prepare for that eventuality. And nor can we.
The DoE will have to handle that at a national level. And the whole system will take that into consideration (as in when to do said exam - it might be postponed to September), effect on A levels and then universities.

Much of the UK population retains the unfortunate habit of deference towards the ruling class,

who have amazingly successfully diverted blame for their decades of cockups nonto the middle class professionals and "experts"

George Orwell, "The Lion and the Unicorn" :

"England resembles a family, a rather stuffy Victorian family,
with not many black sheep in it but with all its cupboards bursting with skeletons.

It has rich relations who have to be kowtowed to
and poor relations who are horribly sat upon,
and there is a deep conspiracy of silence about the source of the family income.

It is a family in which the young are generally thwarted
and most of the power is in the hands of irresponsible uncles and bedridden aunts

A family with the wrong members in control – that, perhaps, is as near as one can come to describing England in a phrase.”

Diverting away to look at the 400 job loss in steel. Then saw the piece about Mr Raab saying that companies suffering should look to themselves not Brexit as the problem.
He obviously has NO F$%$^ing clue.
If the Government hadn't put gagging orders on so many companies and by the lack of transparency, elsewhere Business leaders and the country would have a better idea of where we are headed.
Do any of you 'strategical thinkers' have any suggestion about how the European/overseas owned industries (BMW/Nissan etc) will play out with anything less than BINO?
In Maslow's 'Heirachy of needs' the UK gov are slashing at the topmost levels by their 'actions' so things like human rights are beginning to look a bit like luxuries.

I'm wondering if this walk out is significant. (btw not very nice company we're in banning strikes)

Prison Officers Association General Secretary Steve Gillan called for all members in England and Wales to take protest action outside their jails from 7am "until instructed otherwise

Prison officers are banned from going on strike after the government won a High Court battle over the issue last year

Instead today's drastic action is being phrased as a "protest". The union claims to have 20,000 members in England and Wales - 90% of all prison staff

The government today sought an injunction to end the action, branding it "unlawful" and "irresponsible

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-prison-officers-association-calls-13242050

At what point will there be a 'general strike'?
There should be at least 3 months of fuel oils stockpiled although in late March demand will probably be high as it will be cold.
The main concession I would make to leavers is that we on here are 'whipping up' a degree of panic. I would go on to say that with the thoughts put into this, particularly on this thread, in a 'no deal' situation we are justified. I would also add that a hell of a lot of money and good will of our friends abroad has been wasted and the statement by Mr Junker that 'the deals will never be as good outside the EU are likely to be a massive understatement.
With the likelihood of strikes in the UK and at some point disgruntled Europeans 'working slow' the future of even an orderly departure looks decidedly rocky.

May I question whether cancelling GCSEs might not be a good thing? I know it was a bit fudged but the majority of children don't now leave school at 16, they are supposed to be at school or in further education or jobs with training. So why do we still have a major set of exams at 16?

We could desperately do with a proper reform of the later stages of secondary education, but proposals, some of which have been sensible, always get dismissed. So why not have a baccalaureate system which goes up to 18 and encompasses some of the current GCSE subjects? So e.g someone concentrating on a Humanities track could still take the equivalent of science and maths to GCSE/AS but perhaps over 3 or 4 years, rather than drop them completely at 16. For those who do leave at 16 to go to work, wouldn't a transcript of what they have achieved at school serve, just as well? We could try this for a year, see that it saved a lot of money with setting exams and marking, and saved 16 year olds a lot of stress into the bargain. If it worked this year, then why not scrap them for good?

I agree absolutely Peregrina, but not with this shower in charge.

Although there seems to be little evidence to show for it but some of the government are saying there will be a deal and things might not be as bad as the black death.
If only they would stop farting about with that Chequers document and read the rules as to what is possible.

Here we go, New Statesman carrying a story about research into the thinking of the electorate.

Most people think No Deal most likely outcome.

Most people (both Remain and Leave) in denial about likely outcomes.

Most troublingly, most people are completely completely in denial about outcomes experts agree are VERY likely.

Cognitive dissonance.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/09/what-voters-actually-think-about-no-deal-brexit#amp

I agree there is no planning at school level for No Deal. Schools are staffed and run by people. People who are in denial. And, even if not in denial, are completely without the wherewithal to plan for this. Never mind the fear of being hounded out of your job if you do.

Some councils are beginning to break the silence about how bad this could be - but they don't run schools. And Heads can see no-one's listening to the councils anyway.

For myself, I gave a GCSE-sitting child. I'm saying nothing to her. Encouraging her to work. And just quietly getting angrier and angrier.

I really hate Leave voters, and the colluded at the moment.

I no longer give a shit about the whole: 'Pity them, they know not what they do.' Partly because the London Brexit voters came from fairly well-off, culturally racist/bitter suburbs like Upminster - the same ones who voted for Boris Johnson. They were angry small business owners. Fuck them.

And I'm also quite furious with the passive, 'head in sand' people. Each step not taken by them destroys my children's future.

I absolutely refuse to ignore - pretend not to notice/accept the cognitive dissonance - about the harm done to my children.

I'm not the violent type (well, not obviously so). But I also don't forget.

Before this thread races too far forwards (I am trying to get some work done, honest!) Big congratulations to Jo Swinson MP for taking her baby into work.

I agree, on GCSEs, Peregrina but not like this!

I wonder who's running these prisons right this moment?

It's gut wrenching at the best of times these new GCSEs and A levels, cat, but this feels like a betrayal of our kids, big scale. I share your fury.

Mrs8 Even if you register to take qualifications such as IGCSE independently, the exams need to be taken in a registered centre, under proper conditions. Those centres - for obvious reasons - tend to be schools.

Peregrina The 2018 cohort will need those qualifications. If there is disruption, I doubt the government (which will be in chaos by that point) will be very unlikely to lay on an extra year's tuition/revision.

Schools don't physically have the capacity, for a start.

No. The 2018 will have to shift for themselves. Even if they have the opportunity to sit the exams(with entry free) at a later date, a whole bunch of that cohort will be going in having missed/ lost tuition/revision/refresher teaching.

Those that can afford it will pay for that. Those that can't (the majority) will be inherently penalised.

Honestly, it really is shit - with no upsides. And, like much of Brexit: to those that have, more will be given; from those that have not will be taken away. Except we're talking about privilege, power and money, not faith.

{I'm not the violent type (well, not obviously so). But I also don't forget.}
And there I think you have hit the nail on the head.
What is massively underappreciated is that as (the cat) has expressed, not physical violence but the underlying 'I won't forget'. In future dealings this theme will be in the back of your mind when dealing with obvious 'leavers'. The sense of resentment.
Mr Fox in his 'easiest deals in history' guff is forgetting what the British Empire did to countries around the world. It is 'payback time'.
It may not be blatant, but if the UK is tendering for a deal that is a close rival to Germany or France, there could easily be a 'post colonial' reason to go against the UK.

Yes. The prison situation is extraordinary, woman. In ordinary times, this would be a huge story.

Talking about the UK's shameful regional inequality, remember that a large part of it was built on the back of North Sea Oil as Maggie Thatcher, on the advice of Patrick Minford (him again ) de-industrialised the North, Wales and Scotland, while at the same time funding the growth of the financial sector in the South East

Much of the UK population retains the unfortunate habit of deference towards the ruling class,

Yes - it's extraordinary and it's very visible on Mumsnet. Just one example of many is the thread on "active threads" about premier inn asking for nationality in what the OP perceived to be an intrusive way (it appears to be based on some obscure law from 50 years ago at fault rather than premier inn being a bunch of racists). There was general shock horror at my suggestion that the OP simply pretend to be British - because the hotel won't, and can't, check. I find people's willingness to comply extraordinary, especially as there is no personal risk to not complying in this case.

As for brexit, if this were Frexit, and French people were being told that planes might not fly and medicines would need to be stockpiled, the Elysée would be ashes by now.

Frexit....
Quite a few heads would have rolled by now, and not necessarily figuratively either...

I agree that GCSEs are very stressful and somewhat superfluous, however, they are currently key in making university admissions decisions, due to the AS reforms. I would say bring back AS exams (linked to A-levels), they encouraged a lot of working class / non-traditional background students into HE, and allowed us to make more informed offers and admissions decisions.

Also, slightly off topic, I wrote to all my MEPs yesterday regarding the Orban vote. I’ve heard back from a few, the only Labour MEP to say that they had all voted for the motion, and a Tory MEP to say they were whipped to vote against. Interesting, as it contradicts the official statement by the Tories on the vote.