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Brexit

Westministenders: Back to School

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2018 13:01

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

OP posts:
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mathanxiety · 06/09/2018 19:58

Now we will 'sabre rattle' China, another major possible trading partner.
Now we will 'sabre rattle' the Russians and openly declare 'cyber war' (reported in newspapers).
Relations with the USA are at best 'tenuous' or at least are not totally in accord.
Many of the Commonwealth countries we have 'pissed off' in our Colonial era so are likely to be less 'generous' in any deals.
Is there something of importance that I have missed here?

  • The sabre rattling in the South China Sea is done to toady up to the US, and in concert with the US. Expect more toadying up to Saudi Arabia too.
  • The impact of tossing the GFA overboard and possibly reopening hostilities in NI, with armed forces intervention in NI very likely, will be a public relations disaster for the UK.
  • The spectacle of rioting on the streets of England, deaths from preventable causes thanks to lack of medicine, and the return of police tactics used in South Yorkshire in the 80s and worse (because private security firms will be used) will also go down like a lead balloon.
jasjas1973 · 06/09/2018 20:04

- Remain Tories wouldn't vote for him either

oh yes they would if he was on a withdraw art50 ticket......

but though i'd vote for the idiot if he were, i suspect he wont, nice to dream!

Hazardswan · 06/09/2018 20:06

best it's just such a Boris thing to do isnt it?

Remaining optimistic, when (not if Wink ) we remain how drunk am I gonna get? Very. I'll bloody need it if Bo is PM.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 20:07

Indie: Government will have to make cuts if UK crashes out of EU with no deal, Philip Hammond admits

More cuts to the Welfare State, presumably.
Expect even more people to be in food poverty and need food banks

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-cuts-operation-yellowhammer-eu-philip-hammond-latest-photo-chancellor-a8526046.html

Philip Hammond has admitted telling ministers to prepare to make cuts if the UK crashes out of the EU with no agreement, after “Operation Yellowhammer” was revealed.
The chancellor said ministers would have no choice but to “refocus government priorities”, to head off the economic damage from a no-deal Brexit.

“In no-deal circumstances, we would have to refocus government priorities so that government was concentrated on the circumstances that we found ourselves in,” he said
< Confused WTF ! Gobbledygook ! >

And, if the UK does crash out with no agreement, it would appear to blow a hole in Theresa May’s much-disputed claim that a “Brexit dividend” can help deliver her promised £20bn boost to the NHS.
< always was a lie >
Mr Hammond’s comments came after the government was embarrassed by the latest example of someone – thought to be John Glen, a Treasury minister – being photographed carrying an internal document.

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 20:11

Boris would never stand for election as leader on a Remain ticket, but could maybe U-turn if he ever got elected

However, neither Remain nor Leave MPs could be sure where he decides his interests lie, so they would support their loyalists in the MPs' ballots, not him.

The electorate - as distinct from MPs and then Tory members - would only have a chance to vote for / against him at the next GE

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 06/09/2018 20:14

DH and I were talking about this and also agreed he's probably the only person who could get away with it. Also a suspicion this leak is a fishing exercise to see how it may go down.

jasjas1973 · 06/09/2018 20:15

But Boris has always been pro EU, he has years of speeches backing this up.
He is very charismatic and can convince many people of anything, he cannot change his stance if he ever got to be PM because its too late to change.

Whether he will, is another matter.

1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 20:23

So we have had the deliberate 'leak' so who will be 'accidentally' leaving a laptop in the back of a car?

1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 20:28

I would doubt the EU27 would allow an extension of A50 and they have already said there would have to be a considerable shift for them to consider it. ALL of European business NEEDS to know as soon as possible so I wouldn't see much slippage there.

Mrsr8 · 06/09/2018 20:30

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

woman11017 · 06/09/2018 20:35

but could maybe U-turn if he ever got elected
I suspect he is in too deep to have much choice about what he can do. It's easy to see his 'motivation' and that's presumably being played by those who are planning to do well out of this. Just like Trump. This narrative has been set up today by his adviser, Bannon.

As bigchoc said earlier, the Nazanin Radcliffe tragedy shows he is a a danger to national security. There's not an empathic bone in his body and he will let the very worst happen. He will never stop brexit, because I suspect he doesn't have the power to.

He is simply dangerous.

frumpety · 06/09/2018 20:40

I think once the opinion polls reach 68% or above for remain, Boris will sweep in and pretend to be the pragmatic statesman. Remember that 67.23% won it back in 1975.

I know I suggested that he might turn sooner, but I did that thing where you think you are talking about a decent human being Grin

jasjas1973 · 06/09/2018 20:42

the Nazanin episode shows he is a dick who doesn't read his brief, this was never a National security issue, unlike May who has slashed Police numbers inc Armed Response, very much a Nat Sec issue.

If wants to, he could easily stop Brexit, just like May could, she wont, the loss of security co-op with the EU is another example of how dangerous she really is... tbh i'd prefer BJ to her, brexit or no brexit.....an that is really saying something!

mathanxiety · 06/09/2018 20:46

In this brave, new 'fuck business' 'let's keep fom for goods but not services' world we're living in is there anything the IRA (or anyone) could target that would affect the UK gov?

They will still go after big Tory donors (and the City hasn't yet given up on the Tories, mainly because there are no alternatives).

woman11017 · 06/09/2018 20:50

BJ conducted himself like a buffoon as foreign secretary, and he's not daft, one has to wonder why.Hmm It is a national security issue. Brexit will not be stopped by either of the main parties as things now stand. They can't.

I wonder when they'll be passing emergency powers legislation.

DGRossetti · 06/09/2018 20:51

Seems to be a new game ... how many different ways to express the same idea ?????

Westministenders: Back to School
BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 20:59

"Boris has always been pro EU" Confused
NO
He spent years as a journalist reporting from Brussels - inventing lies and deliberately stirring up anger against the EU

He has never had any beliefs for or against the EU,
but he found he gained popularity and political support by pushing the EU line.
So that's what he did for years, until he made a big enough name for himself to go into politics

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 21:05

The Tory govt would certainly be affected by a few big bombs in the City, especially post-Brexit

The big financial institutions would pull out,
or threaten to pull out unless the govt immediately gave in on the NI border, or whatever else the IRA were demanding

Remember, they would probably already be suffering inconvenience / increased costs from Brexit anyway

Without those big financial firms, the City's place as the No 1 or 2 financial centre in the world vanishes in a puff of smoke
along with 10-12% of UK GDP and tax income for the govt

Utter disaster for the economy, which would already be reeling from Brexit

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2018 21:05

The EU is a means to an end for Johnson.

Wasn't the point of PPE just to write a million and one essays arguing things like the sky was pink, the lunar landings were fake and Caesar wasn't murdered by Brutus, it was just a hunting accident in a convincing manner?

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 06/09/2018 21:14

I ran a school holiday lunch club this summer. We fed 120 people in the 6 weeks.

Bad and all as the US is when it comes to safety nets, the summer school lunch programme is a joint School District/federal government service, with lunches and breakfasts available in private premises leased by the District (often for a nominal amount) around my compact municipality of 54k people.

mathanxiety · 06/09/2018 21:21

Yes indeed, RTB, a three year training in flying by the seat of your pants, gauging the way the wind is blowing, and vindicating your confidence that privilege will always carry you through.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 06/09/2018 21:22

You know you've put the best person for the job into positions when...

@politicshome
EXCL Karen Bradley: I did not know people in Northern Ireland voted on constitutional lines
t.co/7QHUMzlTXi

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 21:23

As we keep being reminded, the USA is a vast country, with very different politics and attitudes in different states, even counties.
Good to hear of such superb cooperative help in your area, Math An example to us all.

I do hope Trump is dumped before his term is up, or at least restricted in his nastiness / lunacy by a Democrat House of Representatives
< crosses fingers for the midterms >

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 21:26

Gina Miller sounds amazingly calm and focused on the Webchat