Is a No Deal exit really a possibility?

[StorminaBcup]

Is there really a risk of a No Deal for Britain leaving Europe or are they making it sound even more of an utter shambles (if that's possible), so that whatever deal we leave with won't be quite so bad in comparison?

There is I think a strong likelihood of a No Deal Brexit. We have in a powerful if no commanding position with the tories a group of extremists who want Brexit at any cost. Labour under Corbyn are blindly enabling this.

The Brexiteers all believed their own lies, when they thought the EU would change many of it's rules just to accommodate us, that a trade deal would be easy, that they needed us more they we them etc.

The deal on offer is a lot less than the benefits we have at the moment from the EU, and the benefits of Brexit have turned out to be all lies. The Brexiteers would prefer a no deal where they can blame others than a deal they own.

I think today’s announcements have made it more likely, not less.

As I understand it the deal on table seems to be wanting to stay in the trade deals and complying with the EU laws and regulations with absolutely no say in how these are implemented. It's a total farce.

I agree Labour has been utterly useless, they could have capitalised on the chaos of the Conservatives after Dave's exit but they were all too busy navel-gazing.

Why won't anyone take control of this? I'm a remainer and as much as it pains me to say, if we have to leave let's at least make it a success. There seems to be an awful of finger-pointing about how terrible the opposition / remainers / brexiters are but no one is taking ownership. It's worse than watching the apprentice!

They are running out of time to do any deals. And any deals they make will be to Europe's advantage because, duh, they don't need us. But hey, it's going to be just fine and blah blah blah . . . Fuck all those who voted for this stupid shower of shit. No going to pull together with those ignorant fuckwits, I'll happily throw them under a bus to serve my own ends and those of my family.

I believe it is very possible given the forces at work within the government and media. I think it will be catastrophic because for one, a great deal of Leavers shriek 'Project Fear!, Millennium Bug!, Keep Calm and Carry On!', 'Remoaner bullshit', refuse to engage with any of the consequences of their vote and won't prepare.

Then there is the majority of the population, bimbling along, blissfully unaware of what they could be plunged into next year. Because really, it is unthinkable that any sane government would be prepared to put their people through it.

The possibility ratio has been described as 60:40 or 50:50 so yeah it's likely!

Write to your MP if you can, show 'the will of the people' isn't a no deal.

It's too late to negotiate a deal.

I can't believe todays announcements.

UK citizens in the EU will lose access to their bank accounts?

As a young English family living in Spain with my childrens ISAs and our main accounts in Britain this is terrifying

Nobody wants a no deal situation its just that there isn't really any possible deal that there can be.

I think the mistake was attempting to do it in 2 years, not 10, or 20.

We just plain and simple do not have the infrastructure to function independently, and it would take more than 2 years to build it up.

I think the most likely scenario is that we don't actually leave the EU at all, but pretend to, and some sort of false Brexit is going to be spun to be made to look superficially like a real one.

realistically, the ramifications of no deal are so ridiculous, that no one can beleive it would actually happen, closing UK air space, shortages of food and medicine, etc.

That's in the first few weeks, beyond that, its actually even worse, environmental damage, slowing down scientific progress in areas where we have all been pitching in together, loss of supply of energy resources....

we are not going to leave the EU because we cant.

We are just going to stay and say we've left! whilst still be subject to EU laws, courts, government etc. Of course we will lose all our voting power, and influence over the decision making.

According to the BBC the final date for completing a deal is the 20th October, with a date in December reserved renegotiate any details that have been thrown up as problematic in the first two months of implementing the deal and preparing for the separation.

That's 8 weeks away. Its not going to happen, is it

Realistically, how long would it take to set up a deal now? We only have seven months left.

A deal has already been written and just needs signing - it includes the full customs union
I suspect that TM will blink and sign it
as the alternative is so catastrophic for her own personal wealth

Realistically, how long would it take to set up a deal now? We only have seven months left.

we don't have 7 months, we have 9 weeks, then 2 months to retify, and prepare and make adjustments, then a 2 day summit to iron out any final little details, then 3 months to prepare.

Thank you, Clairetree. God, this is all such a shambles!

Its a joke, isn't it. I travel quite widely, and the attitude I've come across in various other countries ranges from total incredulity that we have put ourselves in this position, to people having a jolly good laugh at the entertainment we are providing.

Clairtree
Thing is the one that is ready can be implemented in a matter of days ....
we just need the politicians to grow up and look after the electorate

Oh dear god, time to start stockpiling

lets hope they do so, then @ta1kinpeace

It took Greenland, with a population of 50,000 , yes, just 50,000, and just one industry (fishing) around 2 years to sort out the practicalities of leaving the EEC back in the 80s.

Why the fuck the UK Government thought that 30 years later, the UK, with over 60 million people, an even more integrated Single Market, many industries, not all of which are covered by WTO (ie services), many citizens in the EU (and vice versa), a land border protected by a hard won international treaty, could get everything agreed even if they'd been trying which they weren't because of their belief in "they need us more than we need them" in just 2 years, having done no preparation before invoking A50, is positively negligent.

I never expected anything else.

It's a joke that Parliament have a full summer recess when there's so much to do.

Spot on, Clairetree.

Absolute shit show.

I can't believe those time-scales Clairetree

It makes even more sense then that Boris is positioning himself for leadership after TM gets shafted for the disaster she inherited.

I don't believe that any of our politicians will want a no deal car crash staining their lovely legacy forever more. They may not give a shit about the country, but they most certainly do give a shit about themselves

Surely Parliament would never approve a no deal???