Westminstenders: Summer Season

[RedToothBrush]

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

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I agree with motheroffourdragons. I'm not sure another referendum is a good idea, either. However, I think it's very, very important to support the People's Vote to show demonstrate opposition. I will be marching again in October for the same reason.

No time for a referendum, probably not for a GE either

Any last minute climb-down by the UK - to sign the WA on basically the December terms - would have to be made by the PM, quite possibly by a new PM after May is deposed

The latter would be a new PM who only has the mandate of the HoC, not after a General Election, not even after a Tory leadership contest, other than by MPs at the most.

GEs can be called with a minimum of 17 working days notice, about 3 weeks
(although the Fixed Term Parliament Act makes this more difficult for the PM or Hoc to achieve)

If the govt / HoC see sense at the last moment, even this might take too much time.

Since referenda are not part of the normal UK electoral process, they take much longer to organise than a General Election,
e.g. the question to be posed must be agreed with the Election Commision, there must be official campaigns designated, apending limits agreed etc

We probably have no time to do this before Brexit
and the EU would not want to extend A50 to allow it - and let in Farage & co for another 5 year term -
unless they were certain the end result would be what they want, probably Norway+ or Remain

A referendum or a GE would not give them sufficient confidence to extend A50

In my view a new referendum is now looking pretty much inevitable, both asides are already campaigning. The big fight will be over the question and the conditions of the vote. I think the EU will extend A50 if the reason is a second referendum (wouldn’t want to be seen to be thwarting a democratic voting, plus they have little to lose).

A referendum that gave no-deal would make this last minute WA far more unlikely and difficult for a UK government, because of the increased risk of political collapse and civil disorder from ignoring TWO referenda results

Excellent point. I suppose I’ve been imaging a scenario where the only option, other than pulling the plug in the whole thing, is no deal. So in a vote we’d have nothing to lose but of course if there’s a last minute WA up a sleeve somewhere that will only come into play at the eleventh hour then yes, I can see another vote would be dangerous.

Remind me, why, in the name of sanity, are we in this situation? I keep having to pinch myself.

Missmoon The EU have something significant to lose from an extension of A50;
well, for longer than one month:

Uk MEPs elected in May again to the European Parliament.
That's Farage - as UKIP or soemthing worse - UKIP themselves, the usual Tory headbangers that collect in the EP.

They are a hard right group - large because of the UK population - which distorts the EP makeup and hinders moved towards boosting the social chapter, workers' rights etc

Even worse, once elected, the MEPs have a fixed 5 year term, which would remain even after Brexit
Too difficult to change this legally before the elections, so the EP would have to tolerate a large group of Uk wreckers for maybe 4 or 4.5 years after the UK has actually left the EU.

VERY unlikely the EU would agree.
This would be part of their version of "no deal is better than a bad deal" - which actually is a far more sensible slogan for the EU than the UK

Anyway, the Uk would have to apply for an extension first - the EU can't do this unilaterally

and this would be so politically damaging to the UK govt that they might as well take the hit for something that would definitely help, i.e. apply for a Norway+ deal, or to revoke A50.

We know there is a Withdrawal Agreement available and waiting for the Uk to sign:
basically the November agreement, with the text polished and made more watertihght, to avoid the UK weaseling out on the basis of the meaning of some obscure phrase.

It only requires the UK govt to blink at the last moment and sign
then QMV approval by EU heads of govt and majority approval by the EP

That could be even in February, even March - a WA signed by the Uk would indeed be grounds for A50 extension of a month to get those 2 approvals.

The WA would only need vague reference to future trade, certainly nothing that rises to the status of a trade deal, which would need unanimousnagreement by all the EU parliaments.

It is entirely possible that the UK is waiting until the last possible moment to cave in, with the hope that the EU will blink first

even if not a "cunning plan", it may be what happens by default: the UK panics at the cliff edge and signs

• maybe after Tory MPs blink first, topple May and "annoint" / agree a new leader, making sure the leadership contest doesn't go down to the final 2 candidates (so no vote by party members)

November December agreement

making complex decisions by referendum is a truly terrible idea. And it's definitely not a better idea now than it was in 2015.

This is the main reason why I can't in good conscience support another one (although I did sign the petition, but more to get across my dissatisfaction with the current situation).

What we need is for a grown-up politician (ha!) to say 'Look lads, it was a moment of madness, and we get the point, people aren't happy about jobs/housing/social deprivation, and we'll work on it, but we'll just forget this leaving business.'

I know pigs might fly too.

You have seen that the statue of Emily Pankhurst is being removed from outside parliament?

I agree that the hard leave camp think a second referendum is a possibility and are getting themselves ready for it. There's a stand up for brexit thing doing the rounds on twitter, pushed by people like Andrea Jenkyns. If you want to indulge in some bitter and slightly manic laughter check out this: mobile.twitter.com/StandUp4Brexit/status/1029055601081499648. Yes she does actually finish with God Save the Queen.

The interesting thing is that they haven't moved on from empty soundbites and calling any issues project fear 2. Although there are lots of people who will continue to lap that up, there will be a lot of people wondering whether there isn't a kernel of truth in the remain camps arguments.

But I am worried that the remain side aren't getting themselves properly organised and that they still lack a positive message. Facts are wonderful but they do nothing to convince leavers, because leavers vote on emotion not fact (massive generalisation there I know). There will be no point in a 2nd ref if the same arguments are rehashed. If the leave camp haven't moved on from 'will of the people ' but remain have moved on to a better, slicker campaign then we might be in with a chance.

Part of me thinks a cliff edge brexit would be good, because leavers would have to see the consequences and we could then rejoin and put the whole thing behind us. But I don't see why my kids should have their future trashed so JRM and BoJo can make even more money.

What we need is for a grown-up politician (ha!) to say 'Look lads, it was a moment of madness, and we get the point, people aren't happy about jobs/housing/social deprivation, and we'll work on it, but we'll just forget this leaving business.

Why is it that we can all that see that this is the only sane option and those in government can’t - or aren’t willing to admit it? How can they be allowed to do this when their primary obligation is to protect the country and its citizens from harm?

Part of me thinks a cliff edge brexit would be good, because leavers would have to see the consequences and we could then rejoin and put the whole thing behind us

I’ve found myself thinking this as well at times but I doubt they will ever see any of it as the consequences of their actions. I fear it will always be seen as the result of the EU punishing us.

Also leave are rehashing the same we are the underdog argument. Making out they are a victim of the EU, remainers and the elite. And we know how much we Brits love an underdog. Of course it's all nonsense, they won and brexit is happening, not to mention that they are the elite, but it's a useful tool for them. The whole stand up for brexit is symptomatic of that, like it's a child being bullied in the playground.

Remain should start finding remainers like me, living in poor areas, low income with a lot to lose and creating stories around that. Rather than talking about free movement for scientists, which although really important for all of us, is for some people just a reminder that some people do well out of the EU, but not them.

Why is it that we can all that see that this is the only sane option and those in government can’t - or aren’t willing to admit it?

Because they put party and/or personal ambition first.

How can they be allowed to do this when their primary obligation is to protect the country and its citizens from harm?
This is an excellent question. I don't know the answer.

susan excellent points. I've been thinking along the same lines.

Remainers need rebranding as voters we need to see our stories.

@SingingBabooshkaBadly

Seems to me that you are hoping that one of your DF's birth parents were Irish born.

If that is the case the website below is an Irish Government sponsored site. If you have the name you can insert it into Church/Civil records. If it is there, an image of the entry in the Registrar's office or church records will be shown. This may be more decipherable than the transcribed certificate! And access is free.

I wish you well in your quest. As others have said also, I am happy to help you, but no doubt you can find it all out for yourself. Worth a shot anyway. Oh and there is the Irish Census 1901 and 1911 also available separately.

www.irishgenealogy.ie/en/
www.census.nationalarchives.ie/

motherof4 The NI border is unpalatable to some, but the no-deal effects will badly affect the lives of most people who are not in the 0.1%

Besides, NI unionists and maye some Scots consider the NI border important, but most people in England - who are 53 million of the UK's 65 million -
don't care 2 hoots about NI, don't care if it joins the RoI and as MN threads have shown, some weren't even aware it was part of the UK

So, the govt can choose to offend a few 100,000 unionists or plunge 65 million people into the recession and chaos of a no-deal ?

The roadblock is the temporary power the DUP hold due to he 2017 GE arithmatic
That is temporary and besides - are they going to let in Corbyn, who not only wants a united Ireland but has been so friendly with Siin Fein and even the Provos, the unionists bogeyman

A very good piece on the World this Weekend on Brexit and road haulage. Interview with boss of a company saying Chris Grayling clueless, and predicting disaster. Then Mark Mardell interviewed Andrew Bridgen for the govt. and held him to account for factual inaccuracies and stopped him playing tricks such as blaming the EU!
For once a pleasure to listen to the Beeb.

susan Scientists will do fine, in or out of the UK
After so many years of FOM, English has mostly become the working language of science in the EU countries where I have worked

Countries like Germany already welcome scientists, engineers, IT and other mobile mc professionals from around the world.
No problem in getting visas for family either.

It is those with fewer skills, looking for new opportunities, who will find fewer such opportunities after Brexit in the UK's nearest neighbours.

I agree with a whole raft of posters here about not actually wanting a referendum - but supporting it and marching for it simply to show my dissatisfaction.
Had I been polled I may well have answered either 'no I don't want a referendum' which would put me in the 34% though definitely not a leaver, or 'don't know' (because it might be our only chance to stop things but it might go horribly wrong - unlike Spameron, I'm not a gambler) which would put me in the 21%, though in the event of a new referendum I would most definitely be voting.

Simple questions to complex issues can't really get to the heart of what people are really thinking.
I agree the vast majority of leavers probably don't support a second vote at the moment because they are afraid they would lose it. But remainers could easily be scattered through all three camps.

With any yes/no/don't know answer there should always be the follow up of a 'why' question, which isn't multiple choice. Yes it would take far longer to trawl through and get data from - but it would actually be far more meaningful and accurate data. If you're going to throw a whole lot of money at polling people, you might as well do it properly.

As to extending article 50 and getting new MEPs - I'm sure I read somewhere that there was the idea of us voting them in and then them leaving after brexit - that the EU were open to that if it became necessary, and would be willing to change the law so it could happen. Can't remember where I saw it though (probably on one of these threads)

The EU would be unwilling to accept a "Remain" on a knife-edge margin
Only if opinion changed drastically, to at least 60% Remain.

Otherwise, they would just be inviting back a mutinous highly unstable member who would be far more of a wrecker than before
Also, any agreement that required at least 15 or 20 years before another Brexit ref could not in practice be binding, because it would be undemocratic and bitterly resented.
The Ultras would continually be trying to take over the UK govt, probably with significant public support

After the 1st ref, I remember some then Common Market officials quietly expressing concerns that the Remain vote then was "only" 65%

No, either the Uk govt - without any ref - asks the EU to revoke A50 - which they may not agree to -
or Brexit has to happen

Hopefully sense will prevail and there will be a sharp Uk U-turn, signing the WA with transition period to work towards Norway+
Otherwise, looks like a disorderly Brexit and some panic emergency deals sticked together to restore essential international links

Horrendously disruptive to the European Parliament to have to pass emergency legislation - just for the special UK - so that their MEPs,could be kicked out after an unspecified time.

It would cause serious problems with the growing far right - sponsored by the US - in some EU coutnries.

The EU would be happy if the UK could somehow stay, but not at too high a cost to the EU institutions & treaties

• Cameron already found this.

The EU, like the world, cannot always be changed because the very special UK can't make up its bloody mind.

Any extension would just prolong this stupidity for endless years
If the 31 March deadline were extended, unless just to approve an already signed WA, the Ultras would take that as the EU blinking and the Uk govt would continue to hols out for unicorns.

Business - at least in the EU - needs certainty and clear date to plan
They can't be strung along any further

Also, those businesses and govts who have already spent billions because of acting on the EU Notices to Stakeholders would be mightily pissed and would have to be compensated

Barnier and the Selmayr have quietly warned of the risk there is no deal.
Anytime from late October, I expect they - along with E27 govt leaders - may go public in their warnings to EU organisations & businesses that no deal is likely and that they MUST all proepare