Westminstenders: Summer Season

[RedToothBrush]

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

Just in case anyone thought that what happens in the US is very far away and would never happen in the uk...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/deport-families-remove-detain-children-home-office-inspectors-report-tinsley-house-gatwick-a8513341.html

The report looked at two new family detention facilities which opened at Tinsley House in June 2017, replacing the Cedars pre departure accommodation which had been used for families arrested at the border and who needed overnight accommodation before a return flight.
So we moved from having a facility to end people back that had never come in’ the country to a system where families, incl very young children are detained.... That didn’t make the news did it?

Of course you have the fact that people who were detained weren’t allowed to contact a legal representative ....

The EU concerns are overwhelmingly related to migrants from North Africa and the Middle East, who are still landing on the shores.
This relates strongly to the concern at the rise of the far right, which is what has pushed the EU to be more active in keeping out such migrants.

FOM of EU citizens has not to date caused significant friction or concern, certainly not from the recipients.

The economies of less developed countries like Poland have grown rapidly; hence their emigrants are returning in greater numbers.

The UK was a preferred destination for East Europen workers, but the much lower pound, together with frequent reports in the continental press of hostility in the UK, has removed much of the attraction

Brexit fallout: Panasonic to move Europe headquarters from UK to Amsterdam

Panasonic will move its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam later this year, a decision thought to be related to Brexit.

The move is aimed at avoiding potential tax issues linked to Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

This was front page on the BBC website an hour ago.

It’s now relegated to the Business page.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-45351288?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit fallout: Panasonic to move Europe headquarters from UK to Amsterdam

^Ahead of March 2019, several firms have said they are considering or will move jobs out of the UK.

There are widespread concerns firms will favour European cities, dependent on the terms of a Brexit deal.^

Panasonic's decision was driven by a fear that Japan could start considering the UK a tax haven if it cuts corporate tax rates to attract business, Laurent Abadie, chief executive of Panasonic Europe, told the Nikkei Asia Review

and

Mr Abadie told the Nikkei Asia Review that Panasonic had been considering the move for 15 months, because of Brexit-related concerns such as access to free flow of goods and people.

I'm noting the importance of people here.

"Fewer than 2,000 more endorsements will bring UK to threshold #PermanentEUCitizenship However, we want to go way beyond the threshold in pursuit of a million endorsements in the EU. Please sign and share"
eci.ec.europa.eu/002/public/#/initiative

There's us, Macedonia, Balkan countries, and countries of former Yugoslavia and Scotland all waiting in line for EU membership............

Germany and EU tell UK: No Brexit cherry-picking

UK media, like most UK politicians, remain delusional, grabbing at any straw to twist.

A very different interpretation in Germany, compared to the (delusional) euphoric Sun headline:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-eu-tell-uk-no-brexit-cherry-picking/a-45284510?maca=en-gk-volltext-newsstand-world-en-10745-xml-media

EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier came to Berlin to meet Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.
They made perfectly clear that there is not a hair's breadth between their positions on Britain leaving the European Union.

"In the end, it will come down to the fact that we will resist the so-called cherry-picking," said Maas,
following familiar declarations of sorrow that Britain had chosen to part ways, and that Germany, like all the other 27 remaining EU member states, wanted a close relationship with the UK in future.

However, both men remained optimistic that an agreement could be reached – that there would be no "disorganized Brexit."

Barnier said a deal had been reached on a majority of the issues,
while Maas professed that the "last big hurdle" was the question of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
"We are firmly convinced that the exit agreement must guarantee that Brexit must not lead to a hard border in Northern Ireland,"
said Maas. "It is important that this guarantee must be valid regardless of how the EU and Britain will shape its new relationship."

Watched Sky News "Press Review" last night. Dh calls this pair the "Chuckle Brothers", so I can't even remember their real names, but iirc, it's the editors from the Spectator and the Mirror.

The guy from the Mirror guy was irritated amused by the Spectator's guy's continued assertions that this was the EU "giving in" (despite, as the Mirror guy said, the EU always having said the UK would get a unique deal but Not. One. That. Breaks. The. Principles. Of. The. Single. Market. Including. The. 4. Freedoms.) He still spouting the "They need us more than we need them" nonsense, going on about the balance of trade deficit - but not factoring in that a) that impact would be spread amongst 27 countries and not all focussed on one country and b) that the EU has been planning for this "worst case" eventuality (strange concept that, planning ).

However, both men remained optimistic that an agreement could be reached – that there would be no "disorganized Brexit."

Well I suppose that's slightly comforting.Like a comforter to an ageing declining old empire elephant.

The thing is two years was pushing it to address all that needed to be addressed even if the govt had been all working flat out in harmony.. It is so obvious that we should have waited before triggering Article 50 to see what happened as proposals progressed.

With regard to an EU meeting to discuss FOM related issues on Sept 20th.
Is this really happening? If so is it really a new thing as there's been an EU Advisory Committee on Freedom of Movement for Workers for at least two years anyway?

That's what I never understood, despite constant carping here, as far as I can see the only attempt to explain what we wanted before the referendum was when Cameron flounced off to Brussels for two days in February 2018.

If two years hasn't been enough since triggering Article 50 how was those two days ever going to be enough to avert the referendum ?

As we know the other EU member states did actually accommodate him in Feb 2016 and agreed to a some of his suggestions to reform the U.K.’s membership. Some German friends of mine commented at the time that if the U.K. had wanted more, then they should play the game properly. I thought this was a valid point. That means we should take a slow approach by committee with a lot of debate and time. The EU is (despite assertions to the contrary) a consensual, accordant organisation. Flouncing in for two days and banging your fist isn't the correct approach.

Allocating high quality individuals who take time to substantiate propositions with careful research and get other member states on board is the way to produce desired results. Because of our post empire hubris we failed to play the game properly.

( This link is for anyone who needs reminding of Cameron's partial attempt that didn't avert the referendum but then perhaps nothing would have done.
https://www.politico.eu/article/full-text-of-deal-changing-britain-eu-membership-brexit-referendum/)

My leaver FIL has just texted me to crow "I told you the EU would blink first!"

Bit dim, then.

I wonder what the effect of a 10 percent increase in the price of glass will do to the UK economy. One of the main glass manufacturers is Japanese owned. Think house and car windows and glass wool house insulation (for starters).
Looking at Mr Barnier's 'speech' (linked above and discussed) I was having difficulty finding much difference with his previous statements, with the main message being they are still willing to talk. The suggestion by the UK that the EU is 'dragging it's heels and not being available to meet 24/7 at the UK's demand is so incredibly rude, especially since the UK hasn't actually got a plan that satisfies the pre printed requirements of the EU.
Had the UK discussed quietly a workable solution to the NI border IMMEDIATELY the vote was taken and before triggering A50 the other issues might possibly have been relatively easy.

{My leaver FIL has just texted me to crow "I told you the EU would blink first!"}
It was more like an eye roll combined with total boredom waiting for the UK plan.

While Mr Barnier is obviously very intelligent and a good negotiator you have to remember he has 27 countries watching his back like hawks.
And we have...The perspiring Raab without a workable plan.

DH has told me the morning that one of his aggressively leave colleagues has taken his advice. DH told him that he would be wise to wait to buy a house until after Brexit. He took him seriously as he is now of the belief that there will be an economic shock, that has ramifications for the housing market. So much for patronism and beliving in Brexit. It doesn't extend to making the biggest single investment of your own life - just the economic life of the entire rest of the country.

Cameron's partial attempt that didn't avert the referendum but then perhaps nothing would have done.

I think that was all theatre. An awful lot of how the UK is governed has turned into theatre. Look at the whole "terror" scene these days. Loads of powers, a drip drip drip of "nasty men !!!! nasty men !!!! nasty men !!!!" with fuck all evidence to back it up. The only statistic that matters is you are far more likely to be killed by a policeman than a terrorist.

Now we're seeing "The theatre of brexit". In English, naturally. With occasional scene changes, leading characters entering making speeches and (sadly) exuenting.

I think one of our problems is our First Past the Post electoral system. If we had some PR system we would need to spend time stitching up coalitions and would have more practice at negotiation. The parties would need to remember that the next time round they might need party, x, y, z. I don't count the Tory/LibDem Coalition as a genuine one - the Tories just used that to blame the LibDems for everything unpopular. The only good thing I see coming out of that is that is that it's made sure that they weren't available to go into coalition when Theresa May blew her majority.

So if 85% has been agreed what is the outstanding 15% other than the Irish border?

That 15% is nearly all NI border, plus possibly Gibraltar and the UK's Cyprus bases

So does that mean that the trade "stuff" has been agreed?

Believe it or not, I do read the newspapers and have followed Red's threads since day one and I no longer know what the fuck is going on. It's like a form of Brexit dementia.

And since we have heard nothing at all about UK citizens in the EU then us too!

No news = no change ?

Maybe this twitter thread will be a little enlightening

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread

First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal? Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2

So if we are seeing new optimism, it's about helping UK to get that Withdrawal Agreement over the line - and swallow an Irish backstop. NOT, from all I hear, about fudging four freedoms and giving the May cherry-picked SM for goods deal she seeks. /3

Per one EU source "we've pretty much given up on Chequers" and are focussed on getting the Withdrawal Agreement done. A very senior UK source (among the few not spinning about EU 'chiefs' going to emasculate Barnier at Salzburg) takes similar view. /4

Concedes that the 'game' is to get Withdrawal Agreement done by Oct/Nov, and have a 'Future Framework' full of aspirational fluffy language ("unprecedented in scope" etc) to help it over the line. So let's interrogate how that's going.... /5

The WA text is, both sides say, 80% done, the outstanding issues include things like Geographical Indications, other technical separation issues and...of course, the dreaded Irish Backstop. The word is that those talks are not going very well. /6

The Brits are holding out on recognising the stock of EU GIs (Parma Ham etc trade designations), Barnier is being 'grumpy' and giving Raab short meetings and the UK side is not engaging on detail of regulatory alignment on the backstop question. /7

The game seems to be to build pressure both at home and in EU capitals, as we move into Nov...Dec...even January to do a fudge on the Irish backstop. No-one wants a 'no deal', so as crunch looms hope is that both EU chiefs and Tory Brexiteers choose orderly fudge over chaos /8

But here's the problem. The British vision of future outlined in Chequers (and still being pushed by David Liddington in Paris y'day) as a 'final' offer is still 'cake-n-eat it', three baskets in disguise. The EU side, and not just Commission, seem agreed on this. /9

It let's UK off the hook, and dodges consequence of our decision to leave customs union and single market. We want to remain converged, yet be free to diverge. So the REAL question facing EU leaders in Salzburg is when/whether to crush that dream. To shoot that unicorn? /10

If there is no real 'cake n eat' it option - only a big FTA as Barnier is promising - is that enough to get the Withdrawal Agreement over the line in the Autumn? The Brits want the future framework to be substantive, and even have soft legal force... /11

But do they really, if it is clear that the EU is not buying UK offer on high alignment? Seems to me, the unicorn is already politically dead - if not formally executed yet - which makes the 'smuggle' strategy very hard to sustain. /12

If the dual-tariff fox is shot, then we are back to focussing on the Irish border - and how decision to leave customs union and have invisible north-south border puts customs border in the Irish Sea. This circle is not squared. /13

The EU could push it into the future transition period by agreeing to an all-UK backstop (perhaps via dual legal routes) but ultimately that just creates a new cliff edge in 2020 as transition period runs out. At Salzburg EU leaders need to decide if they want clarity or not/14

Mr Barnier is clear. NI-specific backstop, de-dramatized customs border in the Irish Sea, and an ambitious FTA. And no need for a customs border in the Irish if the UK joins some form of customs union. The Brits are still hunting unicorns. /15

So when it comes Macron, maybe worth reminding ourselves what the man himself said three days ago on respecting UK 'sovereign choice'. The Barnier plan is completely consistent with that, AND docking UK onto outer circle of Europe. /16

The question, for both sides, is whether that can be achieved if (as Barnier and Macron suggest) the EU holds its line on EU integrity/Four Freedoms. May/Liddington/Hunt warn rejecting Chequers will lead to chaos etc, so better choose Chequers. The EU still aint buying. ENDS

I think the EU are wasting their time at the moment. Possibly they've realised it, and are just rearranging the drinks on the table to give the semblance of action.

There's only one question, and that's how the UK parliament will vote on whatever happens. And that's entirely domestic. Nothing the EU can do will change whatever is going to happen there.

Mother If there is a Withfrawal Agreement, then it would include basically the expat rights that were in the December draft.
Expats are not in the 15% unresolved part,
but if there is no WA, then those draft rights won't come into effect.
It will be left to individual countries to decide what happens to the UK / E27 expats in their country

@mother
The French Prime Minister said yesterday (I think) that he is pushing to make it as easy as possible for UK citizens to remain in France, and I think he was recommending this stance to other European countries, but it will take a while for it to be passed. It is at least hopeful.
Mr Macron is making some interesting noises too. He is not universally popular in France as far as I can gather but he is certainly thinking positive.